Aces vs. Mercury Prediction: WNBA Finals Game 4 Odds & Expert Picks
With their backs against the wall, the Phoenix Mercury will host the Las Vegas Aces for the WNBA Finals Game 4, but my Aces vs. Mercury prediction has Phoenix living to fight another day.
Las Vegas has a 3-0 series lead and is a short road favorite to complete the sweep and secure its third championship in four years. Tipoff is at 8 p.m. ET on Friday at PHX Arena (ESPN).
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🏀 Aces vs. Mercury predictions: Game 4
WNBA Finals expert picks for Game 4; odds subject to change.
- Game pick: Mercury ML (+130 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Over/Under pick: Over 164 (-110 via Caesars) ⭐⭐
- Player prop bet: Alyssa Thomas Over 17.5 rebounds + assists (-132 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
✅ Aces vs. Mercury expert pick: Game 4
See all of our WNBA picks from our experts for the 2025 WNBA Finals.
☀️ Mercury ML (+130) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Although Phoenix’s moneyline is a four-star play, I do want to offer a five-star suggestion while I have you here. At FanDuel, you can take a +200 value on the Aces to win the WNBA Finals by a series score of 4-1.
My theory heading into the weekend is that the Mercury will be motivated to keep their season alive in Friday’s Game 4, while the Aces will be content to finish the job in Sunday’s Game 5.
Of course, I have other reasons for betting on Phoenix to win: The Mercury closed as a 4.5-point favorite in Wednesday’s Game 3, highlighting a significant line movement after a game that came down to the wire.
On that note, Phoenix has been on the wrong end of some close battles. The Mercury have lost by one possession in four of their past six meetings with the Aces. If one or two results go their way, the narrative is much different, and the market would reflect that.
I’m buying the dip on the Mercury in a game where they will throw everything they have at the Aces.
DraftKings' +130 odds translate to an implied probability of 43.48%, with a winning $10 wager netting a $13 profit.
💰 Best Aces vs. Mercury player prop bet: Game 4
Our player prop odds tool shows the best odds for every market across legal sportsbooks in your area.
⬆️ Alyssa Thomas Over 17.5 rebounds + assists (-132) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Satou Sabally suffered a head injury late in Game 3, so her status is up in the air heading into Friday’s elimination contest. If Sabally can’t go, Thomas becomes even more important as the team’s best player.
Thomas’ rebounding production typically climbs a bit without Sabally, who is averaging 5.9 rebounds per game. Thomas averaged 8.8 rebounds and 9.2 assists during the regular season.
Thomas has averaged 8.7 rebounds and 8.7 assists so far this postseason, clearing this mark in five of her last eight playoff games. I’ll take the -132 price on the Over at FanDuel, especially since this prop is as high as 18.5 at other best sports betting sites.
📊 Aces vs. Mercury odds: Game 4
Latest WNBA Finals odds updated live in real time.
📺 How to watch Aces vs. Mercury: WNBA Finals Game 4
- Date: Friday, Oct. 10
- Tipoff: 8 p.m. ET
- Where: PHX Arena (Phoenix)
- TV: ESPN
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