Fever vs. Mercury Prediction: WNBA Picks for Thursday, July 9
📡 SBR Edge: Fade Fever Without Clark
My Fever vs. Mercury prediction includes Mercury -1.5 (+100) and Monique Billings Under 8.5 points (-130). Phoenix is trending upward after a slow start to the season, while Caitlin Clark's absence today doesn't necessarily mean Billings will score nine or more points.
🏀 Fever vs. Mercury prediction: WNBA picks
See all of our experts' WNBA picks based on the latest WNBA odds.
| 💰 Pick | ⚖️ Units | 🧠 Why I bet this |
|---|---|---|
| Mercury -1.5 (+100 via BetMGM) | 2u → 2 | The Mercury are 4-2 in their last 6 games after starting the season 4-12. |
| Under 171.5 (-106 via FanDuel) | 0.53u → 0.5u | The Mercury have allowed 80 or fewer points in 3 straight games. |
| Monique Billings Under 8.5 points (-130 via FanDuel) | 1.95u → 1.5u | Billings has scored 8 or fewer points in 12 of her last 16 games. |
Total wagered: 4.48 units | Max profit: 4 units
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🏆 Who will win Fever vs. Mercury?
I like the Mercury to win by three points today with Clark resting for the Fever. While the Fever have the sixth-shortest WNBA championship odds at +2200 - the Mercury are +30000 to win outright - Clark's absence, combined with Phoenix's improving defense, creates the perfect storm for the home side to come out on top.
Score prediction: Mercury 86, Fever 83
💰 Fever vs. Mercury prediction & best bet
Mercury -1.5 (+100)
The Mercury are starting to look like the team I thought they'd be before the season began.
They opened with the fifth-shortest championship odds, ahead of the Dream and Valkyries, before starting the season 4-12. Since then, they've gone 4-2 over their last six games, including a road win over the Fever on June 24 with Clark playing the first half (she left in the third quarter with a back injury).
Mercury -1.5 (+100) at BetMGM is the best line available among the top sports betting sites. I would make this line Mercury -2.5 (-101) at fair odds.
🔥 Best Fever vs. Mercury player prop bet
Monique Billings Under 8.5 points (-130)
This line is an overreaction to Clark resting. Yes, Clark's absence will create opportunities for other players to score, but those opportunities will mostly go to Kelsey Mitchell and Aliyah Boston. In her last game without Clark, Billings scored six points on just five field-goal attempts. Overall, she has scored eight or fewer points in 12 of her last 16 outings.
Billings Under 7.5 points (+100) is actually the best line available among the top sports betting apps, as buying from 7.5 up to 8.5 isn't worth 30 cents. However, I'll use Under 8.5 (-130) at FanDuel for my personal tracking since it's a widely available line, and it would be misleading to recommend a bet that most readers can't get down on.
🏀 More WNBA player props today
I feature Natisha Hiedeman in my Storm vs. Dream prediction.
🚀 Fever vs. Mercury same-game parlay
Parlaying these three bets at FanDuel pays +372.
💵 Fever vs. Mercury SGP picks
- Mercury -1.5
- Under 171.5
- Monique Billings Under 8.5 points
Odds: +372 via FanDuel
📊 Live Fever vs. Mercury odds
🚑 Fever vs. Mercury injuries
Injury report last updated at 6:49 p.m. ET.
Fever
- Aliyah Boston (leg) - probable
- Caitlin Clark (rest) - out
- Sophie Cunningham (back) - questionable
Mercury
- Natasha Mack (foot) - out
- Alyssa Thomas (foot) - probable
- Sami Whitcomb (knee) - probable
📺 How to watch Fever vs. Mercury
- Date: Thursday, July 9
- Tipoff: 10 p.m. ET
- Location: Mortgage Matchup Center (Phoenix)
- TV: Prime Video
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