Spain vs. Belgium Prediction: Best World Cup Picks at Kalshi (July 10)
The second quarterfinal match of the World Cup will be played on Friday as I break down my Spain vs. Belgium prediction.
My best World Cup picks expect Belgium to become the first team to break down Spain's defense, even if Mikel Oyarzabal still leads Spain to the semifinals. Spain has a 74% win probability on prediction market apps, with kickoff from SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, Calif., set for 3 p.m. ET (FOX, Telemundo, FOX One).
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⚽ Spain vs. Belgium predictions: Pick to win & player prop picks
See all of our experts' soccer picks for World Cup 2026.
| 💰 Best picks | 📊 Yes/no price | ⚖️ Volume (units) |
|---|---|---|
| Spain in regulation | 59 cents | 2u -> 1.39u |
| Spain 6+ corners | 59 cents | 3u -> 2.08u |
| Both teams to score | 53 cents | 1.5u -> 1.33u |
| Mikel Oyarzabal anytime goalscorer | 42 cents | 1.5u -> 2.07u |
📈 Who will win Spain vs. Belgium?
Prediction market via Kalshi. You can use our Kalshi promo code for a $10 bonus by signing up today. Market subject to change.
Spain hasn't allowed a goal at this World Cup, but will face a serious test from a Belgian team that has scored 12 goals in three matches. But is Belgium's offense as good as recent scores suggest? After all, this is a team that scored just one goal in two games against Egypt and Iran.
The Belgians will score once, but I still think Spain wins this game in regulation. Belgium's defense has allowed at least one goal in four of five games, so Spain's offense should have an easier time breaking through than it did against Portugal.
Score prediction: Spain 2, Belgium 1
💵 My best pick: Yes - Spain 6+ corners (59 cents)
The Belgians haven't allowed more than five corners since giving up seven against Egypt in their first World Cup match. This stat is the only reason I'm not taking Spain to record at least eight in this match.
Spain has at least six corners in all five World Cup matches. Spain has earned at least nine twice, recording 11 against Cape Verde. With this in mind, I expect this price to jump over 60 cents near kickoff.
🦶 Who will score in Spain vs. Belgium?
Follow all of our expert soccer analysis for World Cup 2026.
Mikel Oyarzabal, F, Spain (41%)
Oyarzabal leads all Spanish players with four goals at this World Cup. Though he's only scored in two of Spain's five games, he's managed at least one shot on target in four. While Oyarzabal didn't score against Portugal, he ended with 0.65 expected goals, more than any other Spanish player.
Additionally, this price is excellent. Traditional sportsbooks DraftKings and FanDuel have the price for this prop set at -110 and +120, respectively. 41 cents at Kalshi implies a price of +143.
Best Spain vs. Belgium goal-scorer pick: Mikel Oyarzabal (41%)
🥅 Will both teams score in Spain vs. Belgium?
Romelu Lukaku leads all Belgian players with three goals. However, seven total Belgians have scored at this World Cup, and three other than Lukaku have scored multiple times.
While Spain's defense has been outstanding, the Belgians have scored in four of five games, averaging four goals per match over their last three contests.
Both teams to score (BTTS) pick: Yes (53 cents)
💡 How to trade on both teams to score (BTTS)
Our soccer expert Jeremy Vernon broke down how to handicap BTTS at the World Cup with a full history and statistical analysis of the popular prop market across more than 7,000 matches.
📺 How to watch Spain vs. Belgium
- Date: Friday, July 10
- Kickoff: 3 p.m. ET
- Location: SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, Calif.)
- TV: FOX, Telemundo, FOX One
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