Fever vs. Dream Prediction, Odds & Expert Picks: WNBA Best Bets for Sept. 18
A spot in the semifinals will be on the line when the Atlanta Dream host the Indiana Fever for Game 3 on Thursday at 7:30 p.m. ET from Gateway Center Arena. My Fever vs. Dream prediction expects Atlanta to win its first playoff series since 2016.
With markets more efficient for Game 3, I’m targeting a game prop and Naz Hillmon’s rebounding prop on Thursday. Both WNBA picks are essential to the Dream advancing past the Fever.
🏀 Fever vs. Dream prediction
WNBA expert picks for Thursday; odds subject to change.
- Moneyline pick: Dream ML (-325 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐
- Against the spread pick: Fever +7.5 (-110 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐
- Over/Under pick: Over 154.4 (-110 via Caesars) ⭐⭐
📝 Fever vs. Dream preview & best bet
🔴 Atlanta Dream double result (-140 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
I’m choosing to get creative with my Fever vs. Dream prediction for Game 3, as the main markets don’t offer much value. Most of our best sports betting sites offer a double result market under game props, which involves betting on which team will win the first half and which team will win the game.
BetMGM’s -140 value on the Dream to win the first half and full game stands out, as a $10 bet produces a payout of $7.14. This same ticket costs much more at Caesars (-150), bet365 (-160), and FanDuel (-165).
In addition to the value at BetMGM, I just think it’s the best angle to back the better team.
The Dream were the best first-half team in the league this year, posting a +9.3 net rating. The Fever have struggled on the road compared to home games, which included their -1.3 net rating in the first half.
Atlanta led by seven in the first half of Game 1, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see a similar showing in Game 3. Then, this essentially becomes a -140 moneyline ticket when the best such odds are -325.
💰 Best Fever vs. Dream player prop bet
⬆️ Naz Hillmon Over 6.5 rebounds (-155 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
This might seem like a steep price to pay, but Naz Hillmon’s rebounding could determine the outcome of Game 3. The Fever lead the league in second-chance points, which is why the Dream have to contain them on the glass.
Fortunately for Atlanta, Hillmon’s rebounding has increased from 4.9 to 8.1 per game since joining the starting lineup. She’s grabbed 16 boards through two games in this series.
I’m tempted to ladder this up in a pivotal spot, but the first leg should be Over 6.5 rebounds for Hillmon.
📊 Fever vs. Dream odds: Sept. 18
WNBA odds update live in real time.
📈 Fever vs. Dream betting odds analysis
The Dream opened as 7.5-point favorites, but I’d expect this line to drop. As of this writing, 59% of bets have come in on the Fever. The total for this game started at 156.5, but has quickly dropped two points with 60% of wagers on the Under 156.5, but has quickly dropped two points with 60% of wagers on the Under.
🔢 Fever vs. Dream stats
Season stats courtesy of WNBA.com.
| Fever (24-20) | Statistic (per game) | Dream (30-14) |
|---|---|---|
| +4.5 | Net rating | +9.3 |
| 106.2 | Offensive rating | 108.2 |
| 101.8 | Defensive rating | 98.9 |
| 84.9 | Points | 84.4 |
| 81.5 | Points allowed | 76.8 |
| 33.4 | Rebounds | 36.6 |
| 20.6 | Assists | 21.4 |
| 14 | Turnovers | 12.5 |
| 45.6 | FG% | 44.3 |
| 34.6 | 3PT% | 33.7 |
📺 Fever vs. Dream game info
- When: Thursday, Sept. 18
- Tipoff: 7:30 p.m. ET
- Where: Gateway Center Arena (Atlanta)
- How to watch: ESPN2
❓ Fever vs. Dream FAQs
Who is favored to win Fever vs. Dream?
The Dream are -350 favorites to defeat the Fever in Game 3.
What is the spread for Fever vs. Dream?
Atlanta is a 7.5-point favorite against Indiana on Thursday.
What is the Over/Under for Fever vs. Dream?
The total for Thursday’s Fever-Dream matchup is 154.5.
What are the best bets for Fever vs. Dream?
I like Atlanta’s double result and Naz Hillmon Over 6.5 rebounds as my best bets for Fever vs. Dream.
When is the Fever vs. Dream game?
Tipoff for Fever vs. Dream is 7:30 p.m. ET on Thursday on ESPN2.
How do WNBA odds work?
When betting on the WNBA, the point spread shows how many points the favorite needs to win by in order to cash the bet. For example, a favorite of -5.5 must win by 6 or more points to cover the spread, while an underdog at +5.5 must win outright or lose by 5 or fewer points to cover the spread.
Moneyline odds represent the payout for picking the outright winner (+200 means a $100 bet wins $200, while -200 means a $200 bet wins $100). Over/Unders let you wager on whether the combined total will be higher or lower than the set number.
You can determine the payouts and implied probabilities for any wager - or convert odds to different formats - with our odds converter.
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