Aces vs. Mercury Predictions, Odds & WNBA Best Bets Today, Aug. 15

Will the Mercury assert themselves against the Aces in a likely playoff preview?

Shane Jackson

Last Updated: August 15, 2025 5:57 AM EDT • 4 minute read

Aces vs. Mercury Predictions, Odds & WNBA Best Bets Today, Aug. 15 — Pictured: Las Vegas Aces center A'ja Wilson reacts to a play as we make our best Aces vs. Mercury prediction. Photo by Candice Ward via Imagn Images.

The Phoenix Mercury and Las Vegas Aces square off tonight in a potential first-round matchup of the WNBA championship odds. Tipoff from PHX Arena in Phoenix is at 10 p.m. ET (ION), and I'm digging into the marquee matchup in my Aces vs. Mercury odds and predictions.

Based on the current playoff picture, the Aces are the No. 5 seed after winning five straight games. The Mercury are the No. 4 seed and the 4.5-point betting favorites throughout our best sports betting sites at home. We suggest backing the hosts.

🔮 Aces vs. Mercury predictions: WNBA expert picks

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✅ Moneyline pick: Mercury ML (-185 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐
✅ Against the spread pick: Mercury -4.5 (-110 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
✅ Over/Under pick: Under 166.5 (-108 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐

🆚 Who will win Aces vs. Mercury?

✅ Moneyline pick: Mercury will win (-185 via BetMGM)

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The outlook has been trending up for Las Vegas, but Phoenix has been the better team for much of the year. The Mercury also come into this matchup with decent form after winning three of the last four, with Alyssa Thomas leading the way.

I expect Phoenix to remind everyone of the gap between these two teams on Friday.

💰 Aces vs. Mercury prediction & WNBA best bet

Pictured Phoenix Mercury forward Satou Sabally reacts as we look at our Aces vs. Mercury predictions. Photo by Mark J. Rebilas / Imagn.

🏀 Mercury -4.5 ⭐⭐⭐⭐

📊 Best odds: -110 via BetMGM ($10 to win $9.09)

Given the recent trajectory of the Aces, I wouldn’t be surprised if this number moves toward the Mercury before tipoff. But I’m willing to back Phoenix at -4.5 or better in a four-star play.

These two teams have split both meetings in this season series, but the Mercury have posed more problems than the Aces. Thomas has logged 30 points, 13 rebounds, and 21 assists across the two matchups against Las Vegas.

She became the first player in WNBA history to record three consecutive triple-doubles during a three-game win streak last week. Thomas failed to make it four straight in Sunday’s loss, but the Mercury have enjoyed four days off to prepare for this clash.

Alternatively, Las Vegas is coming off a hard-fought win over the New York Liberty on Wednesday. This will be the Aces’ fourth game in a week.

I’ll lay the points with the rested (and better) team.

👀 Aces vs. Mercury player prop

⛹️‍♀️ Alyssa Thomas double-double ⭐⭐⭐

📊 Best odds: -170 via bet365 ($10 to win $5.88)

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It’s tempting to take the +475 on Thomas’ triple-double odds, but she’s become a reliable double-double threat lately. Thomas has recorded a double-double in seven of her past eight games.

This line is as high as -190 at FanDuel, indicating the bargain at bet365.

🏀 Aces vs. Mercury odds today

Live updated WNBA odds from our best sports betting sites.

🔢 Aces vs. Mercury updated betting insights

The Mercury opening line of -3.5 has grown to -4.5 across our best sports betting apps
62% of bets are on Las Vegas to cover
A slight majority (55%) are on the Over to cash as the total has grown from 166.5 to 168.5

💡 Expert WNBA picks

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Written by:
Shane Jackson

Shane Jackson has been writing for Sportsbook Review since 2022, though his passion for sports, writing, and betting runs much longer than that. He graduated from the University of Kansas with a journalism degree in 2017 and has been covering sports ever since, working for MLB.com, Manhattan Mercury, Lawrence Journal-World, WynnBET, Bet Chicago Sports, BetNOLA, and BetMGM. Jackson cares about creating quality sports betting content above all else. He uses a mixture of models, information, film, analysis, and a top-down approach to locate every best bet shared for SBR. He never gives out a pick that he wouldn’t be willing to spend his own money on. Jackson is focused on finding +EV bets on a daily basis for a variety of sports such as NCAAF, NCAAB, NFL, NBA, WNBA, and MLB. He usually bets on props but is willing to wager on a spread or total when there is an edge. Don’t ask him how many bets he has placed on a typical college football Saturday. Jackson doesn’t care if you follow him on social media, but his Twitter account has info on how you can follow his bets through multiple third-party platforms. He just wants you to read all the great work from the SBR team.