2026 Winter Olympics Medal Odds: Prediction Market for Who'll Win Most Gold Medals in Milano-Cortina

The flame is nearly lit at San Siro, and as the 2026 Milano-Cortina Winter Olympics approach (Feb 6-22), the battle for international supremacy shifts to the odds for who'll win the most gold medals in the games. While the "Big Three" - Norway (-170), USA (+450), and Germany(+725) - are once again the focal point of the total gold medal prediction markets, the 2026 Games present a different landscape than Beijing.

Whether you are tracking the most gold medals or looking for an edge on total medals overall, this guide breaks down 2026 Winter Olympics medal odds and offers our best predictions.

🥇 2026 Winter Olympic most gold medal odds

Prediction market via Kalshi. You can use our Kalshi promo code for a $10 bonus by signing up today. Market subject to change.

The primary story of this projected medal table is Norway’s massive market dominance. At -170 odds, Kalshi traders are giving the Norwegians a 63% implied probability of winning the most gold medals, making them the only country in the field with minus-money odds.  

There is a steep drop-off after the top three. Norway (-170), USA (+450), and Germany (+725) are the only nations priced shorter than +1600, suggesting a three-horse race for the top of the podium.  

Canada is certainly in the mix as well, and has a great chance to earn gold on the Olympic men's hockey odds.

📈 How to trade on Olympic gold medals at Kalshi

Kalshi is a prediction market that allows users (traders) to buy and sell predictions like stocks. Yes and No predictions are bought at listed price per share, and markets will close at either $1 or $0 as winners are declared.

💰 Best pick for most gold medals  

Norway’s edge goes far beyond a single superstar. They’re projected to haul in roughly 15-22 gold medals, thanks to being favored across a massive chunk of the biathlon and cross-country slate.

Best long shot pick: Netherlands (1 cent) remains a powerhouse. While they dominate speed skating, their lack of breadth in alpine and Nordic sports keeps them at a long shot price for the overall gold medal title.  

🥈 2026 Winter Olympic most total medal odds

The -270 odds for Norway in the total medals market represent a massive 71.4% implied probability, signaling that the Scandinavians aren't just favorites - they are a juggernaut.  

💰 Best prediction for most total medals  

If you don't want to pay the Norway tax, Germany is the safe alternative. They are the only country with a realistic chance of sweeping the sliding sports (luge, bobsleigh, skeleton). Because these events have a low "variance," Germany starts the Olympics with a "guaranteed" base of 10-12 medals, providing a high floor for total medal traders.  

Best long shot pick:  While Italy is a long shot to win the most medals, their presence at +4000 (ahead of powers like Austria and Switzerland) shows that oddsmakers are factoring in the host nation advantage. Historically, host nations see a 15-20% increase in their total medal count.  

⭐ Star athletes to watch at the 2026 Winter Olympics 

When these athletes are on your television, you might not want to miss out:

❓Winter Olympic FAQs

When are the 2026 Winter Olympics?

The 2026 Winter Olympics will begin Friday, Feb. 6 and run through Sunday, Feb. 22. You can see the Olympic schedule for each event here.

Where are the 2026 Winter Olympics?

The 2026 Winter Olympic Games will be held in Milano Cortino, Italy.

How to watch the 2026 Winter Olympics?

The 2026 Winter Olympics will be broadcast on NBC in the United States and on CBC in Canada.

Who won the most medals at the last Winter Olympics?

Norway won the most total medals (37) and the 2022 Winter Olympics in Beijing. They also led the gold medal count with 16.

Where are the next Winter Olympics?

The 2030 Winter Olympics will be held in the French Alps.