Who Will Die in Stranger Things Finale Prediction Market | 8 p.m. ET on New Year's Eve
After 9.5 years, "Stranger Things" is about to come to a close with the finale being released on Netflix (and in select theatres) at 8 p.m. ET on New Year's Eve. As Vecna, a.k.a. Mr. Whatsit, One, and Henry Creel, prepares to merge the Abyss with the town of Hawkins, Ind., we look at what the prediction markets have to say about who will die in the "Stranger Things" finale.
Who will die in Stranger Things finale? (Polymarket prediction market)
Prediction market prices via Polymarket as of Tuesday, Dec. 30.
| Character | Chance | Yes price (cents) | No price (cents) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Eight | 68% | 69 | 33 |
| Eleven | 46% | 47 | 55 |
| Murray | 22% | 22 | 79 |
| Will Byers | 16% | 17 | 86 |
| Jim Hopper | 13% | 14 | 88 |
| Jonathan Byers | 13% | 13 | 88 |
| Steve Harrington | 12% | 13 | 89 |
| Robin Buckley | 9% | 10 | 92 |
| Lucas Sinclair | 8% | 8.5 | 91.8 |
| Nancy Wheeler | 8% | 8.7 | 92.8 |
| Joyce Byers | 6% | 6.3 | 94 |
| Dustin Henderson | 6% | 6 | 94.3 |
| Holly Wheeler | 5% | 5.2 | 95.3 |
| Mike Wheeler | 4% | 5.2 | 97 |
| Derek Turnbow | 4% | 4.8 | 96.8 |
| Max Mayfield | 3% | 3.5 | 97.1 |
As of Tuesday, this market has drawn over $1.8 million in trading volume. Eight, a character re-introduced during the final season when rescued from Hawkins Lab in the Upside Down by Hopper and Eleven, is seen by traders as the most likely character to be killed off, with a 68% chance. Wagering $100 on Yes at 69 cents would return a profit of $43.39. The same wager on No (33 cents) would return a profit of $195.02.
Eleven has drawn the highest volume of trades in the prediction market at $766,103. Steve Harrington is second at $255,478.
📜 Prediction market rules
"This market will resolve to “Yes” if the specified character dies during "Stranger Things: Season 5". Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying death must show the specified character dead on screen, or otherwise that character’s death must clearly be stated to have occurred, even if offscreen (i.e., characters confirm their death in conversation, the funeral of a character occurs, etc.). If a death is reversed through a revival, resurrection, or reanimation that occurs after the character has died, that death will still qualify." - via Polymarket
Best bet to die in Stranger Things finale
Jim Hopper (16%) - 17 cents for Yes
Every $100 spent on Jim Hopper to die in the "Stranger Things" finale would return $537.61 in winnings. Notably, no major character has died through the first seven episodes of Season 5, yet the creators teased at the onset of the season that there would be "impactful and heartbreaking" moments.
For the last few seasons of the show, and especially throughout Season 5, Hopper has been adamant of doing everything possible to protect Eleven, from herself as well as Vecna and the many evils of the Upside Down (and the Abyss). Hopper has also flirted with death many times throughout the show since he was first transported to the Gulag.
All that foreshadowing - one of the show's specialties - won't be for naught. Though Eleven has drawn the bulk of the trading volume to date, I see Hopper ($130,159 in trades) sacrificing himself in her place at the climax of the finale.
When will the Stranger Things finale come out?
The "Stranger Things" finale, Season 5, Episode 8, will be released on Netflix at 8 p.m. ET on Wednesday, Dec. 31.
How to watch the Stranger Things finale
The "Stranger Things" finale will air on Netflix and will be released in select theatres.
How do prediction markets work?
Polymarket, a legal and regulated prediction market throughout much of the U.S., allows users to wager on outcomes of sports, politics, entertainment, and much more.
Non-sports markets are often offered in the form of a question, and users can predict Yes or No, or choose from a select list of options, each given a percent chance for each outcome.
Users buy their prediction at a set amount, typically in cents. The lower the cost of the prediction, the higher the potential payout, as the cost reflects the chance of the outcome being realized.
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