US Open Long Shot Picks & Predictions 2025: Best Sleepers to Win at Flushing Meadows

We're backing two American men to break the 22-year drought without a title - and a 50/1 long shot to win it all.

Mike Spector

Last Updated: August 23, 2025 2:00 PM EDT • 5 minute read

US Open Long Shot Picks & Predictions 2025: Best Sleepers at Flushing Meadows — Pictured: Ben Shelton (above) backhands a ball to Taylor Fritz. Those two lead our US Open long-shot picks and sleeper predictions. Photo by John E. Sokolowski / Imagn Images.

The fourth and final Grand Slam of the season begins on Sunday, as tennis’ best compete at the US Open at Louis Armstrong Stadium and Arthur Ashe Stadium in Queens, N.Y., over the next two weeks until Sept. 7.

Of all the majors, the US Open is usually the one that offers the biggest surprises, which has me excited to make my US Open long shot picks based on the odds at the best sports betting sites.

On the men’s side, there have been six different winners in the last six years, which bodes well for the chances of identifying some US Open sleepers. Read on for our US Open tennis predictions which look for value beyond favorites Jannik Sinner (+110) and Iga Swiatek (+250) to win the tournament.

🎾 US Open long shot picks & predictions 2025

Tennis picks made Saturday; odds subject to change.

✅ Ben Shelton (+2800 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
✅ Taylor Fritz (+3300 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
✅ Jasmine Paolini (+5000 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐

💰 Best US Open sleepers & long shots

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🎯 Ben Shelton (+2800) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Ben Shelton will certainly have the support of the partisan American crowd in all of his matches, and he possesses the kind of blazing serve that can help him overpower the best in the world over the next two weeks.

Shelton has already won his maiden Masters 1000 title in Canada and achieved a career-high No. 6 ranking, and his only losses at Grand Slams this season have been to Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz.

While the rest of our best sportsbooks have Shelton at +2000 odds, BetMGM stands on its own at much more enticing +2800 odds. Those odds carry a 3.45% implied probability and would net $280 in profits on a winning $10 wager.

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🎯 Taylor Fritz (+3300) ⭐⭐⭐

For many of the same reasons why I am backing Shelton as a top long shot pick, Taylor Fritz follows the same mold as an American with a big serve that will have the crowd on his side.

Fritz had a tremendous grass court season with titles in Stuttgart and Eastbourne, and he had a career-best showing at Wimbledon by reaching the semifinals. He was runner-up at last year’s US Open, and he would be brimming with confidence if he finally beats Novak Djokovic for the first time in 11 head-to-head meetings in a potential quarterfinal matchup.

At the other best sports betting apps, Fritz’s odds range from +2000 to +3000, so these +3300 odds at FanDuel are a steal in comparison. They imply a mere 2.94% chance of Fritz winning it all and would turn a $10 bet into a $330 profit if he does.

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🎯 Jasmine Paolini (+5000) ⭐⭐⭐

The diminutive Jasmine Paolini does not fit the mold of a feared hard court tennis player, but her run to the finals in Cincinnati proves otherwise. She also has the most favorable draw based on average world rankings of likely opponents if the brackets were to go chalk.

Paolini has history on her side as a US Open long shot - six different women have won in the last six years, and six of the previous 10 champions have been first-time major winners. I wrote more about Paolini's chances of winning this tournament in my US Open predictions and best bets.

Paolini’s implied probability of being a US Open sleeper pick and taking home the title is as high as 2.94% through BetMGM’s +3300 odds. But her +5000 odds at FanDuel return a much higher $500 in profits on a $10 winning wager than what is offered on the low end of the market.

📆 When does US Open 2025 start?

The US Open starts on Sunday, Aug. 24, with the women’s and men’s finals held on Sept. 6-7, respectively. Both draws have 128-player fields, and the matches will be aired on ESPN, ESPN2, and ABC from Queens, N.Y.

❓ US Open betting FAQs

Who are the best long shots for the US Open?

My Ben Shelton and Taylor Fritz picks back two Americans who are looking to become the first American men to win the US Open since Andy Roddick in 2003.

Who is favored to win the US Open?

Defending champion Jannik Sinner is the +110 pre-tournament favorite on the men’s side, while Iga Swiatek (+250) has the shortest odds in the women’s draw.

Where is US Open 2025 played?

The US Open is held at the USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center in Queens, N.Y.

How do tennis odds work?

Tennis betting has similar markets to football or other popular sports in that one can wager on a player’s moneyline, game spread, or total games odds. Other popular markets are set betting and total games won for each player.

Where can I find the best tennis betting odds?

Shop around our best sportsbooks to find the best odds for your tennis picks. Our best sports betting sites for all sports include BetMGM, bet365, Caesars, FanDuel, and DraftKings.

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Written by:
Mike Spector

Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”