US Open First Round Predictions 2025: Best Bets to Advance in Round 1

We're highlighting our best bets for the first round of the US Open, which begins Sunday at Flushing Meadows.

Mike Spector

Last Updated: August 23, 2025 11:00 AM EDT • 5 minute read

US Open First Round Predictions 2025: Round 1 Picks & Best Bets — Pictured: Ann Li (USA) leads our US Open first-round predictions. Photo by Jayne Kamin-Oncea / Imagn Images.

The last Grand Slam of the tennis season is upon us as I dive into the opening proceedings in Queens, N.Y., with my US Open first-round predictions.

The early rounds of a major can have some eye-poppingly steep moneyline odds across the best sports betting sites on some of the tournament’s big favorites. Look no further than tournament favorites Jannik Sinner and Iga Swiatek, who have -10000 and -5000 moneyline odds over Vit Kopriva and Emiliana Arango, respectively.

I have scoured the data to provide the best value with my US Open expert picks. You can catch all the action from Sunday, Aug. 24 to Sunday, Sept. 7 on ESPN, ESPN2, or ABC.

🎾 US Open first round predictions 2025

Tennis picks made Saturday; odds subject to change.

✅ Best bet to advance: Ann Li over Rebecca Sramkova (-138 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
✅ Best upset pick: Jacob Fearnley over Roberto Bautista Agut (+114 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
✅ Best prop bet: Carlos Alcaraz to beat Reilly Opelka in four sets (+225 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐

💰 Best US Open predictions for Round 1

🔎 Our NEW player props odds tool can help you find the best betting odds across legal sportsbooks in your area!

📈 Best bet to advance: Ann Li (-138) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Ann Li is 21-18 this year entering her first-round matchup with Rebecca Sramkova, who has lost 22 of her 40 matches. Sramkova has struggled against more veteran opponents, specifically early in matches, as she has dropped seven straight opening sets in hard court main-draw matches against older opponents.

Li advanced to the third round in her first ever US Open appearance in 2020, while Sramkova failed to advance to the US Open main draw after her first six attempts in qualifying. Li’s implied probability of advancing is as high as 61.83% based on Caesars’ -162 odds, so FanDuel’s -138 odds offer the best value with $7.25 in profit on a winning $10 wager.

Bet $5, Win $300 in Bonus Bets

New customers only. Min. first deposit and wager of $5+. Bonus bets are awarded within 72 hours of winning your first wager. T&Cs apply.

Claim $300

Each product featured on our website has been meticulously researched and selected by our team of experts. If you sign up through our links, we may get a commission.

🚨 Best upset pick: Jacob Fearnley (+114) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Jacob Fearnley is a live underdog against a former top-10 player in Roberto Bautista Agut, as the Spaniard has compiled an underwhelming 4-9 record across nine hard-court tournaments this season.

With this pick, I am bucking the trend that the favorite has won the last 11 Grand Slam main draw matches that Bautista Agut has been involved in. Fearnley has held serve and broken serve more often than Bautista Agut on hard courts this year, and he should be confident after reaching the third round at each of the first two majors this season.

Fearnley has as short as +105 moneyline odds at DraftKings, so I am headed to FanDuel for this wager at a 46.73% implied probability, where a winning $10 bet would net $11.40 in profits.

🔥 Best prop bet: Carlos Alcaraz to beat Reilly Opelka in four sets (+225) ⭐⭐⭐

Reilly Opelka wants to play his matches one way, using a booming serve to play quick points with minimal chances to break serve on his return. His matches often feature a tiebreak in at least one set, as nine of the American's last 10 matches (all in a best-of-three format) have seen one or more sets go the distance.

DraftKings has the odds of at least one set in this match going to tiebreaks set at -275, carrying a 73.33% implied probability. Thus, I am banking on Opelka winning one set in a tiebreak before Alcaraz’s all-around superior game takes over.

The low end of the market across the best sports betting apps has +190 odds for this wager. So we are getting a steal at DraftKings, where a $10 winning wager would return $22.50 in profits.

Bet $5, Get $300 in Bonus Bets + Over $200 Off NFL Sunday Ticket

21+ and present in most states. (18+ DC/KY/NH/WY). Void in OR/NH. 1 per customer. $5+ first-time bet req. Get promo code to redeem NFL Sunday Ticket sub and max. $300 issued as non-withdrawable bonus bets; 7 day expiry.

Claim $500

Each product featured on our website has been meticulously researched and selected by our team of experts. If you sign up through our links, we may get a commission.

📆 When does US Open 2025 start?

The US Open starts on Sunday, Aug. 24, with the women’s and men’s finals held on Sept. 6-7, respectively. Both draws have 128-player fields, and the matches will be aired on ESPN, ESPN2, and ABC from Queens, N.Y.

❓ US Open betting FAQs

Who is favored to win the US Open?

Defending champion Jannik Sinner is the +110 pre-tournament favorite on the men’s side, while Iga Swiatek (+250) has the shortest odds in the women’s draw.

Where is US Open 2025 played?

The US Open is held at the USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center in Queens, N.Y.

How do tennis odds work?

Tennis betting has similar markets to football or other popular sports in that one can wager on a player’s moneyline, game spread, or total games odds. Other popular markets are set betting and total games won for each player.

Where can I find the best tennis betting odds?

Shop around our best sportsbooks to find the best odds for your tennis picks. Our best sports betting sites for all sports include BetMGM, bet365, Caesars, FanDuel, and DraftKings.

(21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER)
* Bonuses not applicable in Ontario.

Not intended for use in MA.
Each betting site featured on SBR has been meticulously researched and selected by our team of experts. If you sign up through our links, we may get a commission

Written by:
Mike Spector

Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”