Snow in New York City Odds: How Much Will Fall in NYC During Winter Storm Prediction Market

January weather that's featured plenty of fluffy white stuff for many in the northeast is about to make New Yorkers feel like they're living in the abominable snowman's cave, and the snow in New York City odds from prediction markets reflect the likelihood of The Big Apple getting walloped.

Let's look to Kalshi while gauging exactly how much New York is about to get buried.

❄️ How much snow will fall in New York City?

A threatening storm is about to move across the United States and northward, and New York City is among the areas set to receive the brunt of the snow.

Above 12 inches is the real tipping point for this market from Kalshi, and all outcomes are resolved through the National Weather Service. The window for the snowfall tied to this market is Jan. 24-26, though the majority is expected to fall on Sunday before temperatures plunge.

Prediction market via Kalshi. You can use our Kalshi promo code for a $10 bonus by signing up today. Market subject to change.

☃️ New York City forecast for Sunday

The nation's largest city is about to turn into a massive snow globe. The system is originating in the Rockies beginning today, and it'll bring significant precipitation as it moves north throughout the weekend.

It'll be difficult weather for many areas, likely including freezing rain in Texas on Saturday, according to The New York Times. But it'll reach the northeast by Sunday, when it's set to grow in strength. The hourly forecast from The Weather Network shows the impact beginning as early as 5 a.m. ET, with the system at its most intense between about 10 a.m. and 5 p.m., and up to 1.5 inches of snow projected per hour.

It starts to taper off around 8 p.m. ET, and by then the digging out from a snow mountain begins. Nature won't be helping with that effort anytime soon with a melt though, as temperatures in New York plummet to a frigid 12 degrees on Tuesday, miles below the seasonal average of 29.

🥶 New York City Sunday snowfall prediction

Above 12 inches will fall

The snow pile in New York measuring at 12 inches or above once the storm finally passes is in line with the forecast, and the prediction market.

As we see in the pricing, the latter takes a notable turn after 12 inches. The implied probability plummets from 65% for 12 inches to 43% for 15 inches, before an even sharper decline to 17% for 18 inches or above.

That's why 12 inches or more is the safest route here, and a reasonably profitable one compared to what the lighter snowfall amounts are getting. However, forecasts always fluctuate as weather systems develop. And some like The Weather Network's model are showing a possibility of up to 16 inches, which brings the plus-money odds more into play for those seeking better value.