RBC Canadian Open Expert Picks and PGA Tour Bet Slips

The 2022 RBC Canadian Open serves as the final warm-up for next week’s U.S. Open. Our PGA Tour experts offer up their top golf picks for the Canadian Open.

The RBC Canadian Open returns to the PGA Tour schedule for the first time in three years. The 2020 and 2021 events were canceled due to COVID-19 restrictions in Canada. As such, Rory McIlroy will finally defend his 2019 Canadian Open title.

McIlroy will be challenged by a stronger-than-usual field for this event. Scottie Scheffler and Justin Thomas, winners of the Masters and PGA Championship, respectively, enter as the betting favorites. Jon Rahm, the 2021 U.S. Open champ, is among the notables not in this week’s top-heavy field as he prepares to defend his title elsewhere.

Below, our PGA Tour betting experts offer up their picks for the 2022 RBC Canadian Open at St. George’s Golf and Country Club. Picks made by Esten McLaren, Jon Metler, and Jordan Anderson.

RBC Canadian Open Expert Picks

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(Note: C.T. Pan withdrew Wednesday afternoon.)

RBC Canadian Open Picks to Win

Theegala (+7000 via BetMGM)

Sahith Theegala is without a win for his rookie PGA Tour season. However, he has risen from No. 381 to No. 116 in the Official World Golf Ranking (OWGR) with three top-10 finishes this year, including a T-5 at the Memorial Tournament last week. That field was much deeper than the one this week so a similar level of play could lead to that anticipated breakthrough.

Theegala ranked second among those to play all four rounds last week with 2.56 strokes gained: tee-to-green per round. That’s a key stat again this week at St. George’s. The 24-year-old is also 61st on the PGA Tour in SG: around-the-green and 44th in scrambling this season. He’s well equipped to navigate St. George’s tight and undulating fairways, and the sloped greens.

I’d be less inclined to back Theegala at +5000 (FanDuel Sportsbook) due to the names at the top of this field. But the +7000 odds available through BetMGM offer the value for which we’re looking. - McLaren

Smith (+1200 via Caesars Sportsbook)

I cannot ignore the disrespect in these lines toward Cameron Smith this week. At the Memorial Tournament this past weekend, Smith was leading after 36 holes and in the thick of the action until a 77 on Sunday did him in.

This year, Smith has been as good as, or better than, tournament favorites Scheffler and Thomas, yet we see Smith has a few more dollars of value at his price point.

Smith has averaged 2.33 strokes gained: total per round this season, whereas Thomas has averaged 2.28 and Scheffler has averaged 2.27. As you can see, it is very close between the three golfers, however, Smith has performed slightly better and I can get +1200 on Smith via Caesars, while Scheffler is trading at +700 with DraftKings. - Metler

McIlroy (+1000 via BetMGM)

This is an exceptionally top-heavy field and I believe the winner will come from one of the elite. Though this is less than a groundbreaking pick, the 2019 Canadian Open winner profiles well here. 

As always, SG: approach is an important stat this week, and Rory McIlroy has gained 18.8 strokes in this category across his past 24 rounds. That ranks fourth in this field. Additionally, he ranks first in the field in SG: off-the-tee, and in SG: putting on Bentgrass. 

McIlroy has also excelled on short par 70 courses like this one – gaining 31.2 strokes across his past 24 rounds. That ranks second among the competition this week.

Though this is a short number, McIlroy has been in tremendous form with three top-10 finishes in his past four events. Look for Rory to get back in the victory column and gain momentum for next week's U.S. Open. - Anderson

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RBC Canadian Open Longshot Picks

Spaun (+11000 via FanDuel Sportsbook)

J.J. Spaun hasn’t found much success since winning the Valero Texas Open the week ahead of the Masters. He missed the cut in two of his last five events, and he withdrew from the Charles Schwab Challenge. His T-23 finish at the Masters was his best result during that stretch.

While Spaun doesn’t rank overly high in any of our key stats this week, he’s in the top 80 on Tour in SG: around-the-green, SG: approach, and birdie or better percentage. Catching a recent winner (in a deeper field than this) at +11000 is very appealing.

We need to be cautious of the betting favorites who may be looking ahead to the third major of 2022 and Spaun shouldn’t be this far removed from the top and middle tiers. - McLaren

Champ (+13000 via DraftKings Sportsbook)

Cameron Champ is one of the most interesting players on the PGA Tour as he has no in-between with his game. Champ is either finishing among the top 10 or missing the cut completely. As a bomber at +13000, I am more concerned with the fact that when he is on, he is capable of winning a tournament. He has proved this with his three victories on the PGA Tour since 2018.

What drew me to Champ this week was the +13000 price that DraftKings has him at. Champ has a much shorter price at Caesars, where he is listed at +6500, and FanDuel, where he is listed at +8000.

I hope Champ brings the putter that was shown at the Masters and the Mexico Open to Canada this week. In both of these tournaments, he gained strokes putting. That has hindered him for much of the year, and he accomplished finishes of T-10 and T-6 because of it. - Metler

RBC Canadian Open Top Matchup Picks

Hatton (+100) vs. Burns (via DraftKings)

Sam Burns has been one of the best stories in golf this year with another two victories to go with his two wins in 2021. Three of his four career PGA Tour wins have come in the 2021-22 season, and he also tied for ninth against a strong field at the Arnold Palmer Invitational.

Tyrrell Hatton remains quietly not far back in the world rankings at No. 24 following a T-13 finish at the PGA Championship. He has four international top-10 finishes this year, including a co-runner-up at the Arnold Palmer Invitational.

Burns ranks better by most key metrics except for SG: putting. We’ll take Hatton’s edge in that regard at even money on greens no one in this field has played competitively. - McLaren

Hughes (-115) vs. Rose (via PointsBet)

It only seems fitting to back Mackenzie Hughes at the RBC Canadian Open, but this is as much a bet against Justin Rose as it is a bet on Hughes.

Compared to the first half of the season, Rose's ball striking has declined significantly over the second half. He has lost strokes on approach in five of the last six tournaments where this statistic is recorded, and he missed the cut in four of his last seven events.

Rose is not losing a small number of strokes on approach in these tournaments either. In four of these tournaments, he lost 0.74, 1.50, 1.86, and 2.93 SG: approach per round. This is concerning and the main reason I am backing Hughes this week at the RBC Canadian Open. - Metler

RBC Canadian Open Top Prop Picks

Top Canadian: Conners (+225 via DraftKings)

Despite this being the Canadian Open, the talent in this nationality pool thins out quite quickly. Corey Conners, ranked 31st in the world off a T-13 finish at the Memorial, is the favorite across the market. His +225 odds to be the top Canadian at DraftKings are the most profitable with BetMGM offering the lowest odds of +188.

Adam Hadwin was the top Canadian at the 2019 Canadian Open and Conners missed the cut but that was at a different venue. Conners comes into the week ranked 46 spots higher than any other Canadian golfer and his 30.77% implied win probability is far too low. - McLaren

Top English: Fitzpatrick (+225 via DraftKings)

On any given week, I do not have any problem backing golfers who are lighting it up with their tee-to-green statistics but struggle with their putting. You can include Fitzpatrick in this category, as he finished seventh at the Memorial Tournament in terms of total SG: tee-to-green, but missed the cut after losing 3.77 SG: putting.

Fitzpatrick's poor putting performance on the greens isn't a typical occurrence, and his excellent ball striking from last week should not be overlooked due to the missed cut.

Additionally, I prefer Fitzpatrick in this market since I don't like the golfers he will compete against to become the top English player. It almost feels more like a matchup between Fitzpatrick and Hatton than a nationality prop.

You should purchase Fitzpatrick at DraftKings, where he is listed at +225. He is trading for a shorter price at FanDuel, where he is +185, and PointsBet, where he is +175. - Metler

McIlroy top 5 after Round 1 (+400 via BetMGM)

McIlroy enters the week T-16 in first-round scoring average on the season with an average of 69.11. 

He has already registered two first-round leads this season. Both came in his past seven starts.

McIlroy is strong off the tee, and his approach game has dramatically improved this season. McIlroy has been knocking on the door of another victory, and he profiles well for this course.

Showing a penchant to start hot recently, look for him to be atop the leaderboard after 18 holes. - Anderson

Picks to Fade

Smith

Smith was in control of the Memorial Tournament last week at -8 through two rounds. He was defeated by Billy Horschel by 12 strokes over the weekend en route to a ho-hum T-13 finish. He finished in the same position at the PGA Championship with a missed cut at the RBC Heritage bridging his final-round collapse in a T-3 finish at the Masters.

Smith is likely to be using this tournament to get right ahead of the U.S. Open; however, the top-heavy field makes his +1000 odds at DraftKings too steep to trust given his recent weekend struggles against the world’s best. - McLaren

Varner

While Harold Varner III is playing the best golf of his career at the moment, +2200 for a golfer who has never won on the PGA Tour seems too short to me. In addition to never winning, he has also demonstrated the opposite of the clutch genes on multiple occasions when he has been in contention on Sunday. My support for Varner does not extend to +2200, and sports betting is all about the price.

If you want to back Varner, I would bet on him as a first-round leader rather than betting on him to win the tournament outright. - Metler

Fitzpatrick

You’ll see many high on Fitzpatrick this week and next, however, I cannot bet him at this number.

Fitzpatrick has yet to win on the PGA Tour and is beginning to get the Xander Schauffele treatment. He's seemingly posted at a short number each week despite little win equity. 

We all would love to see Fitzpatrick's breakthrough, but I would need his odds to be at least twice this high. - Anderson

Where to Bet on the RBC Canadian Open

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:

FanDuel SportsbookCaesars SportsbookDraftKings SportsbookPointsBetBetMGM

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