🏆 Oscars Predictions to Win Every Category: Who Will Win Most Academy Awards?

Below, I make 2026 Oscars predictions for every category ahead of Sunday's 7 p.m. ET (ABC/Hulu) event at the Dolby Theater in Los Angeles. While a lot of categories are locked up, some key categories like Best Supporting Actress and Best Actor are wide open.

While there is very little value in backing favorites like Jessie Buckley for Best Actress and Paul Thomas Anderson for Best Director, the truth remains that picking against them would be a waste of money. So while I won't be picking against the grain just to do so, there are quite a few upsets, including in the Best Actor category, that I could see happening.

💰 Oscars predictions for every category

Here are my favorite Oscars predictions for the 2026 Academy Awards based on the Oscars odds from prediction market Kalshi:

⭐ Best Oscars predictions for major categories

Here are my best Oscars picks ahead of Sunday's 2026 Academy Awards show in Los Angeles:

Best Picture prediction: One Battle After Another (77%)

One Battle After Another has been awarded Best Picture at the Critics' Choice Awards, Golden Globes, and, most importantly, at the Producers Guild of America Awards. The PGA winner has gone on to win Best Picture at the Oscars five consecutive years. 

Sinners has seen a push after winning Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture, but only five of the last 10 winners of that award have won Best Picture. Considering One Battle After Another had nearly an 87% chance of winning on March 1, getting this at 77% provides incredible value.

Best Director prediction: Paul Thomas Anderson (92%)

Even if One Battle After Another were to lose Best Picture, it would take something wholly unexpected for Anderson to lose this award. Anderson has won more than 10 awards for directing his latest film, including the all important DGA award for Outstanding Directing - Feature Film. 11 of the last 12 winners of the DGA's top prize won Best Director.

In addition to winning the DGA, Anderson won Best Director at BAFTAs, Critics' Choice Awards, and Golden Globes. At all four of these events, Anderson defeated Ryan Coogler, the second-favorite in this category.

Best Actor prediction: Timothee Chalamet (33%)

All of the momentum is with Michael B. Jordan entering the Oscars, which has increased the value in backing Chalamet. Chalamet won Best Actor in a Motion Picture - Musical or Comedy at the Golden Globes, and he's won over a dozen awards total. 

Jordan won the Actor on March 1, and since then, he has been favored for this award. However, just last year, Chalamet won the Actor, then lost the Oscar to Adrien Brody. Best Actor has been one of the least predictive guild awards in recent years, with just three of the last five winners winning the Oscar.

While Sinners is likely to win quite a few awards, there's a chance that this is the Academy's only chance to honor Marty Supreme. And despite the recent outrage over Chalamet's comments regarding opera and ballet, receiving four nominations at such a young age speaks to how beloved he is by the Academy, making him my best Oscars value pick.

Best Actress prediction: Jessie Buckley (96%)

I wish I could come in with some hot take that will blow this category open, but this is the biggest lock of the night. Buckley has won over 40 awards for her portrayal of Agnes Shakespeare. This includes taking home hardware at the Actor Awards, BAFTAs, Critics' Choice Awards, and Golden Globes.

Buckley's closest competition is Rose Byrne, who gives a great performance in If I Had Legs I'd Kick You. However, Byrne's nomination is the only one the film received. And with Hamnet looking like it won't win in any other category, there's simply no way that voters choose to honor a less popular film and leave Hamnet empty-handed.

No other actress has a greater than 3% chance of winning. This category is over.

Best Original Screenplay prediction: Sinners (95%)

If I were picking based on preference, I'd be taking Marty Supreme. But I'm not picking with my heart, I'm picking with my mind, and there is no way Sinners is losing. 

Ryan Coogler took home Best Original Screenplay at the Writers Guild of America Awards. Five of the last eight winners of this award went onto win Best Original Screenplay at the Oscars. Two of the three films that lost during that span, were defeated by films that weren't even nominated for the WGA Award.

If Sinners and One Battle After Another were up against each other, this award would be interesting. Instead, they're each going to win easily in their respective categories.

🏆 2026 Oscars info

• When: Sunday, March 15
• Time: 7 p.m. ET
• Where: Dolby Theater, Los Angeles
• How to watch: ABC
• Streaming: Hulu

⚖️ How to trade on the Oscars at Kalshi

What is Kalshi and how does it work for the 2026 Oscars?

Kalshi is a U.S.-regulated prediction market exchange overseen by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), where users trade on real-world outcomes using simple yes/no contracts. For the 2026 Oscars, that means markets tied to questions like whether Sinners wins Best Picture, if Timothée Chalamet takes home Best Actor, or which film lands Best Cinematography.

Each contract pays out $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it does not. If you think a film will win Best Picture and buy a "Yes" contract at 40 cents, that implies a 40% chance. If the film wins, the contract settles at $1, netting you 60 cents per share. If it loses, it settles at $0. Prices fluctuate in real time as users buy and sell, so the market reflects the crowd's collective expectations — and shifts with every new announcement, critic review, or awards season development leading up to the ceremony.

How does Kalshi differ from sports betting on the Oscars?

If you've ever placed a bet at a sportsbook, Kalshi will feel familiar but work differently in a few important ways.

At a traditional sportsbook, you bet against the house at a fixed line. The book sets the odds, builds in a margin (the "vig"), and you either win or lose at those terms. For the Oscars, that might look like Frankenstein at +300 to win Best Picture — meaning a $100 bet returns $300 profit if it wins.

On Kalshi, there is no house. You trade directly with other users in an open market. Prices are expressed in cents as implied probabilities rather than traditional American odds. A contract priced at 22 cents implies a 22% chance of winning — the same information as American odds, just presented differently. There is no vig baked into a fixed line; instead, the spread between the buy and sell price is how the market operates.

The other major difference is flexibility. A sportsbook bet is locked in once placed. On Kalshi, you can sell your contract at any time before the ceremony — locking in a profit if the price has moved in your favor, or cutting your loss if sentiment shifts against you. This makes Kalshi feel less like gambling and more like trading, where strategy and timing matter as much as picking the right winner.

Why trade the Oscars on Kalshi instead of a sportsbook?

Kalshi offers four key advantages for Oscars prediction markets:

• Flexibility: Unlike a locked-in sportsbook bet, you can sell your contract at any time before the outcome is decided — useful in a fast-moving awards season where buzz shifts quickly
• Transparency: You trade against other users in an open market, which can surface better value than a sportsbook line where the house always has an edge
• Federal regulation: As a CFTC-regulated exchange, your funds are held in a secure, audited environment — a level of oversight most offshore sportsbooks don't offer
• Wider availability: Kalshi operates in many U.S. states where traditional sports betting is not yet legal, making it accessible to a broader audience

How to read Kalshi Oscars odds

Kalshi displays prices in cents, which represent the implied probability of an outcome. Here's a quick conversion guide:

If you're coming from sports betting, the simplest way to think about it: a lower cent price means a bigger underdog, and a higher cent price means a heavier favorite — just like long odds vs. short odds at a sportsbook.

Tips for trading the 2026 Oscars on Kalshi

• Follow the precursor awards. The BAFTAs, SAG Awards, DGA, and PGA are strong predictors of Oscar winners. When a film sweeps the precursors, its Kalshi price will rise — acting early can get you better value.
• Watch for market overreactions. A surprise BAFTA win or a snub at nominations can cause prices to spike or crash. These moments can create short-term trading opportunities.
• Diversify across categories. With 24 categories on the ballot, spreading contracts across multiple markets is a lower-risk approach than concentrating on Best Picture alone.
• Sell before the ceremony if you're up. If your contract has risen in price ahead of Oscar night, consider selling to lock in a guaranteed return rather than waiting for the live result.