🏆 Oscars Odds & Nominees 2026: Who's Favored to Win Biggest Academy Awards?

Though Sinners leads all films with 16 nominations, the latest 2026 Oscars odds still favor One Battle After Another in many key categories, including Best Picture and Best Director.

Yet, Sinners still has hope in some major categories. The film is set to win Best Original Screenplay, and of all the nominees, none has seen a greater rise in recent weeks than Sinners' star Michael B. Jordan. Jordan was trailing both Timothee Chalamet and Leonardo DiCaprio, until he won Best Actor at the 32nd Actor Awards. Though he's far from one of the biggest favorites of the night, traders on Kalshi are loving his chances right now.

And if you're looking for some drama in the Best Actress category, you're going to have to wait until next year. Jessie Buckley has a 95% chance of winning, and those odds may be undervaluing her.

Download our free, printable 2026 Oscars ballot here ahead of your Sunday viewing part.

🏆  Oscars odds, favorites & picks for every category

There are 24 Oscars categories, and we're looking at the current favorite for each one, based on the odds at Kalshi, along with my prediction for each award.

🎬 Best Picture Oscars odds

Sinners won Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture at the 32nd Actor Awards on March 1, and its odds to win Best Picture have doubled since that date. But all that really means is that traders are getting great value on One Battle After Another, a film that was once given a greater than 85% chance to win, but is now sitting at 74%.

While Sinners' win at the Actor Awards is certainly good for the film, One Battle After Another won the PGA Award, which has correctly predicted seven of the last eight Best Picture winners.

🏆 Best Director Oscars odds

Despite Sinners getting some love in other categories of late, Ryan Coogler hasn't been able to make a dent in Paul Thomas Anderson's lead. Anderson's odds have been sitting north of 80% since early December, and now, with a greater than 90% chance to win, Anderson losing would be one of the biggest shocks of the entire night.

🏆 Best Actor Oscars odds

Of all the major categories, this one is suddenly the most dramatic. For the longest time, Chalamet looked like a lock, with his odds sitting near 80% for the majority of 2026. However, after a shocking win at the Actor Awards, Jordan's odds have skyrocketed. On Feb. 28, Jordan had an 11.3% chance to win this award, giving him the third-best odds in this category. His odds now stand at around 60%.

Chalamet's odds have plummeted to 31%, which actually makes him a great value play heading into the Oscars. While the Actor Awards are generally great at predicting who will win the Oscar, it was just last year that Chalamet won the same award that Jordan just won, only to lose to Adrien Brody on Oscars Sunday. 

🏆 Best Actress Oscars odds

For all the drama in the Best Actor category, there is none here. Since Jan. 5, Buckley has had a greater than 85% chance of winning this award. Though Rose Byrne was being given a chance in mid-December, the lack of hype around her film, If I Had Legs I'd Kick You, has significantly cooled any momentum she had. While there could be surprising upsets in other categories, Buckley losing this award would be arguably the biggest upset in Oscars history.

💰 How I'm trading on the Oscars

With so many of the major categories seemingly decided, I'm really focusing on the Best Actor category entering Sunday. Jordan and Chalamet both have a legitimate chance to win this award, and I think that the public is overreacting to Jordan's win at the Actor Awards.

As far as guild awards go, Best Actor has been one of the least consistent from one ceremony to another, as the person to win the Actor Award has only gone on to win just three of the last five Best Actor Oscars. Considering all the momentum Chalamet had for the entirety of Oscar season, it seems silly to disregard him now because of one loss. His odds of 31% suggets a traditional line of +222. This means a $100 trade would net a profit of $122. That's some serious value.

One Battle After Another is also offering some value for Best Picture. At one point, the film was trading at nearly 86 cents, but those odds have dropped to 74%. I don't think Sinners has a chance, so I'll risk a little on the heavy favorite just because of how far the odds have fallen. I'd trade sooner rather than later, as I expect One Battle After Another to have greater than 80% odds come Sunday night.

Aside from these plays, my Oscar trades will focus on smaller categories. Amy Madigan provides incredible value to win Best Supporting Actress, and while Sean Penn is heavily favored now, he's someone I've been backing to win Best Supporting Actor all Oscar season.

⚖️ How to trade on the Oscars at Kalshi

What is Kalshi and how does it work for the 2026 Oscars?

Kalshi is a U.S.-regulated prediction market exchange overseen by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), where users trade on real-world outcomes using simple yes/no contracts. For the 2026 Oscars, that means markets tied to questions like whether Sinners wins Best Picture, if Timothée Chalamet takes home Best Actor, or which film lands Best Cinematography.

Each contract pays out $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it does not. If you think a film will win Best Picture and buy a "Yes" contract at 40 cents, that implies a 40% chance. If the film wins, the contract settles at $1, netting you 60 cents per share. If it loses, it settles at $0. Prices fluctuate in real time as users buy and sell, so the market reflects the crowd's collective expectations — and shifts with every new announcement, critic review, or awards season development leading up to the ceremony.

How does Kalshi differ from sports betting on the Oscars?

If you've ever placed a bet at a sportsbook, Kalshi will feel familiar but work differently in a few important ways.

At a traditional sportsbook, you bet against the house at a fixed line. The book sets the odds, builds in a margin (the "vig"), and you either win or lose at those terms. For the Oscars, that might look like Frankenstein at +300 to win Best Picture — meaning a $100 bet returns $300 profit if it wins.

On Kalshi, there is no house. You trade directly with other users in an open market. Prices are expressed in cents as implied probabilities rather than traditional American odds. A contract priced at 22 cents implies a 22% chance of winning — the same information as American odds, just presented differently. There is no vig baked into a fixed line; instead, the spread between the buy and sell price is how the market operates.

The other major difference is flexibility. A sportsbook bet is locked in once placed. On Kalshi, you can sell your contract at any time before the ceremony — locking in a profit if the price has moved in your favor, or cutting your loss if sentiment shifts against you. This makes Kalshi feel less like gambling and more like trading, where strategy and timing matter as much as picking the right winner.

Why trade the Oscars on Kalshi instead of a sportsbook?

Kalshi offers four key advantages for Oscars prediction markets:

• Flexibility: Unlike a locked-in sportsbook bet, you can sell your contract at any time before the outcome is decided — useful in a fast-moving awards season where buzz shifts quickly.
• Transparency: You trade against other users in an open market, which can surface better value than a sportsbook line where the house always has an edge.
• Federal regulation: As a CFTC-regulated exchange, your funds are held in a secure, audited environment — a level of oversight most offshore sportsbooks don't offer.
• Wider availability: Kalshi operates in many U.S. states where traditional sports betting is not yet legal, making it accessible to a broader audience.

How to read Kalshi Oscars odds

Kalshi displays prices in cents, which represent the implied probability of an outcome. Here's a quick conversion guide:

If you're coming from sports betting, the simplest way to think about it: a lower cent price means a bigger underdog, and a higher cent price means a heavier favorite — just like long odds vs. short odds at a sportsbook.

Tips for trading the 2026 Oscars on Kalshi

• Follow the precursor awards. The BAFTAs, SAG Awards, DGA, and PGA are strong predictors of Oscar winners. When a film sweeps the precursors, its Kalshi price will rise — acting early can get you better value.
• Watch for market overreactions. A surprise BAFTA win or a snub at nominations can cause prices to spike or crash. These moments can create short-term trading opportunities.
• Diversify across categories. With 24 categories on the ballot, spreading contracts across multiple markets is a lower-risk approach than concentrating on Best Picture alone.
• Sell before the ceremony if you're up. If your contract has risen in price ahead of Oscar night, consider selling to lock in a guaranteed return rather than waiting for the live result.