NASCAR Predictions at Martinsville: 2025 Xfinity 500 Odds & Expert Picks

For the penultimate race of the season, which will decide the Championship 4, the NASCAR Cup Series heads to Martinsville for the Xfinity 500.

I'm breaking down the Xfinity 500 odds to make my expert NASCAR picks and predictions for this weekend’s action, which is scheduled to begin at 2 p.m. ET (NBC) on Sunday from Martinsville Speedway in Ridgeway, Va. 

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📊 2025 NASCAR odds & favorites at Martinsville

Latest NASCAR odds via BetMGM; subject to change.

🥇 Xfinity 500 betting favorites 🥇

• Ryan Blaney, +350 ($10 to win $35)
• Denny Hamlin, +425 ($10 to win $42.50)
• Chase Elliott, +650 ($10 to win $65)
• Kyle Larson, +675 ($10 to win $67.50)
• Christopher Bell, +675 ($10 to win $67.50)
• William Byron, +800 ($10 to win $80)
• Joey Logano, +900 ($10 to win $90)
• Chase Briscoe, +1600 ($10 to win $160)
• Josh Berry, +2500 ($10 to win $250)
• Bubba Wallace, +2500 ($10 to win $250)
• Alex Bowman, +3500 ($10 to win $350)
• Ross Chastain, +3500 ($10 to win $350)

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🏁 NASCAR predictions & preview at Martinsville

Martinsville Speedway is a flat, half-mile oval. The track’s long straightaways and tight corners give it a paper clip shape. Only one other track on the Cup Series circuit, New Hampshire Motor Speedway, has a similar shape, but it’s a full mile long. Still, with that venue’s race steadily moving back on the schedule, performance at the Magic Mile offers some predictive power for Martinsville.

A look at recent New Hampshire races and fall Martinsville races points to some interesting trends. In both 2024 and 2023, the best car by average green-flag speed at Martinsville was also top 3 in the metric at New Hampshire. In 2023, the best five drivers by average green-flag speed at New Hampshire all ranked in the top 10 per the metric at Martinsville. The same held for the best two drivers in 2024.

This year, we could see even more correlation between the two events. New Hampshire’s race date moved back to September. The same right-side tire for this event was just used at New Hampshire a few weeks ago, and the left-side tire was tested there over the summer, with Joey Logano, Christopher Bell, and Ross Chastain taking it for a spin. 

Logano and teammate Ryan Blaney paced the field in average green-flag speed at New Hampshire, and I predict the defending Cup Series champion will pull off another clutch victory.

📈 NASCAR trends at Martinsville Speedway

🏎️ Trend #1. Ryan Blaney can’t be stopped in the playoffs. Blaney has piloted the No. 12 Ford to a win in back-to-back Martinsville playoff races. He also has at least a top 3 in the last three Martinsville playoff races.

🏎️ Trend #2. Don’t put too much stock in drivers’ starting positions. Since 2022, the beginning of the NextGen Era, no driver has won at Martinsville from the first two rows. Two winners won from the third row, but the rest all started from behind 10th place. 

🏎️ Trend #3. Death, taxes, and Joey Logano top 10s. Logano has scored at least a top 10 result in all seven Martinsville races of the NextGen Era. His 12-race top 10 streak dates all the way back to the Fall 2019 race.

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🏆 Pick to win Xfinity 500: Joey Logano (+900) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

We’re trusting Joey Logano to pull off another playoff miracle by winning the Xfinity 500 on Sunday. The three-time (and defending) Cup Series champion has another gear in the postseason, and while he couldn’t cash in at Talladega, he led the most laps before needing to stop for gas due to a late-race caution. Look for him and crew chief Paul Wolfe to pull out all the stops this weekend.

Aside from his 12-race top 10 streak, Logano has put together several impressive runs here. While he has only won here in the Cup Series once, his 1,220 laps led rank fourth among all drivers on the entry list. He has the third-best average finish at Martinsville in the NextGen Era (5.6). Finally, while he never made an Xfinity Series start here, he led 150 of 258 laps en route to a Truck Series win here in 2015.

We’re getting odds of +900 (10%) at ESPN BET for Logano to make the Championship 4, which seemed inevitable at the start of the season – and, to me, at the start of the Round of 8. Following his fourth-place finish at New Hampshire, in which he led the most laps and posted the fastest average green-flag speed, I like Logano to get the job done in the clutch at Martinsville.

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💎 Best value bet to win Xfinity 500: Ryan Preece (+7000) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

If you’ve followed my NASCAR betting columns this year, the winless Ryan Preece has been a mainstay of this section. We’ve still pocketed a healthy chunk of change thanks to him due to his top 10 results, of which he now has 12 on the year (42.8% of his career total!), but he could win this race outright on Sunday.

Preece cut his teeth driving open-wheel modifieds on the short, flat ovals of New England, like New Hampshire, all of which compare favorably to Martinsville. Preece now has an average finish of 13th here in the NextGen Era. He even started on the pole and led the most laps here in 2023 – but then lost the lead due to a pit-road speeding penalty and finished 15th.

The odds have just gotten too long for Preece. Lock him in to score the surprise upset at +7000 (1.4%) at DraftKings for a massive $700 payday on a $10 slip. Most other best sports betting sites have him in the +5000 to +6000 range.

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🎯 Best long shot to win Xfinity 500: Michael McDowell (+40000) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Preece was originally supposed to be my long shot bet to win the Xfinity 500, but then I saw Michael McDowell at +40000 (0.25%) at FanDuel, and my jaw just about hit the floor. McDowell probably won’t win this race, but with a $10 bet returning $4,000 in profit, he simply must be on the card, especially after what we saw from him in the spring.

It’s a long shot, but there is some value here. In his 29th career start here at Martinsville, McDowell finished 12th here – a career best – in his first start in the No. 71 Chevrolet. That may seem unremarkable at first, but McDowell also ranked 12th in driver rating (83.9) and 13th in average green-flag speed. The No. 71 is the best equipment McDowell has ever brought here.

At New Hampshire a few weeks ago, McDowell ranked ninth by average green-flag speed and finished eighth. It’ll probably take a late-race miracle for him to pull off the upset, but he should be close enough to the front for these odds to warrant some action. I’ve never seen a truly bettable NASCAR outright at anything longer than +15000. Lock this one in immediately.

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💰 Best NASCAR prop bet picks at Martinsville

Our player prop odds tool shows the best odds for every market (including NASCAR) across legal sportsbooks in your area.

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🔥 Best prop bet for Xfinity 500: Ryan Preece top 10 (+325) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

As I mentioned before, Preece has been a mainstay for us on the outright and top 10 markets. He has almost doubled his career top 10 total in just one season behind the wheel of the No. 60 Ford for RFK Racing. Despite driving in underfunded equipment, Preece had managed a top 10 last spring to go with three top 15s and five top 20s since the NextGen Era began.

Preece and the other RFK Racing Fords didn’t fare that well at New Hampshire, but I think Preece’s skill from his time in open-wheel modifieds can make up for that. He finished 14th in that race after ranking just 19th in average green-flag speed. Something similar happened here in the spring: Preece finished seventh despite ranking just 22nd in average green-flag speed.

While I’m worried about whether this team can find some momentum on flat short tracks, if anyone can outrun his car here, it’s Preece. We’re getting a steal for him to score a top 10 at +325 (23.5%) on Hard Rock Bet. This wager will cost you north of +250 (28.6%) everywhere else.

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🚀 Best long shot prop bet for Xfinity 500: Michael McDowell top 10 (+1300) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

It may sound crazy to bet on a driver to score his first-ever top 10 at Martinsville in his 30th career start, but that’s exactly what we’re doing for +1300 (7.1%) at FanDuel. McDowell nearly pulled it off in the spring with a 12th-place result. But, more importantly, he just scored his first-ever top 10 at New Hampshire in his 23rd career start there a few weeks ago. 

McDowell always had the talent to succeed on flat short tracks – he just never had the equipment. With Spire Motorsports putting two cars (including McDowell’s) in the top 10 by average green-flag speed at New Hampshire this year, expectations should be far higher for him than this. Let’s hope to cash another quadruple-digit top 10 bet this week by riding with him.

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🏆 Past Martinsville Speedway winners

💡 How to bet on NASCAR at Martinsville

• It’s a playoff elimination race. While I believe this year’s New Hampshire race has a ton of predictive value for this weekend, nothing matters more than the virtual win-or-get-eliminated situation that four drivers, including Blaney and Logano, find themselves in. The race for a win – and points – simply will swing a few positions late in the running.
• Don’t overreact to qualifying. The lack of success that drivers starting up front have found here is notable, and with a new left-side tire intended to cause more tire wear on the cars this weekend, it could matter even less. Expect the field to get shuffled often, especially with several drivers needing stage points to secure their bid to the next round.

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📺 How to watch NASCAR at Martinsville: 2025 Xfinity 500

• Date: Sunday, Oct. 26
• Start time: 2 p.m. ET
• Track: Martinsville Speedway (Ridgeway, Va.)
• TV: NBC

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