2025 NASCAR AI Picks at Martinsville: ChatGPT's Full Predictions for Xfinity 500 Today
The NASCAR AI predictions below, provided by ChatGPT, expect a new winner to secure a spot in the Cup Series championship race.
Today's Xfinity 500 starts at 2 p.m. ET (NBC), and the following NASCAR at Martinsville predictions feature William Byron. ChatGPT based its predictions on historical data, betting odds, and statistical trends, including the winner, best prop bets, and top long-shot picks. For more coverage, check out the 2025 Xfinity 500 expert picks.
π NASCAR pick to win at Martinsville
ποΈ William Byron
- Racing team: No. 24 (Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet)
- Starting position: 1st
- Best odds: +310 via FanDuel ($10 to win $31)
β Why William Byron wins at Martinsville
1. Pole Position & Hendrick Dominance
Byron rolled off P1 with a blistering 19.286-second lap and leads the strongest short-track team in the garage. Hendrick Motorsports has won three of the past four Martinsville races, and Byron has led 400+ laps here in his last two starts combined. Clean air is king at this track, and starting up front gives him the best shot to control the rhythm early.
2. Elite Pit Crew and Track Position Control
Byronβs pit crew ranks among the top three in average stop time this season and has consistently delivered in tight stage breaks. With 500 laps and multiple pit cycles ahead, retaining the lead off pit road is often the difference between winning and losing at Martinsville β and Byronβs unit is the benchmark.
3. Cold-Weather Grip and Confidence Edge
Cool temperatures mean higher grip levels and less tire falloff, which accentuates Byronβs precision on corner entry and exit. He already dominated a similar setup in 2024βs fall race and has the perfect balance of aggression and discipline for a 500-lap grind.
π’ AI simulation for William Byron
- Projected finish: 1st
- Simulated odds to win: 26.8%
- Confidence rating: ββββ (4 out of 5 stars)
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π― Best NASCAR prop bet at Martinsville
ποΈ Ty Gibbs top-5 finish
- Racing team: No. 54 (Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota)
- Starting position: 2nd
- Best odds: +300 via bet365 ($10 to win $30)
β Why Ty Gibbs finishes top-5 at Martinsville
1. Breakthrough Short-Track Speed
Gibbs qualified just 0.002 seconds off the pole, continuing his rapid improvement on short tracks. He posted top-three averages in long-run practice speed and showed the kind of throttle discipline and corner entry control that Martinsville rewards. Heβs matured from βfast-but-erraticβ to βmethodical and composed,β making him a real threat to hold track position.
2. JGRβs Consistent Martinsville Setup
Joe Gibbs Racing has been the class of the field at Martinsville for years, with Hamlin, Bell, and Gibbs all inside the top-12 in qualifying. The Toyotas excel under braking and rotation through the center of the corner β exactly where this track is won and lost. Gibbs has the benefit of two elite teammates to draft strategy cues from, and a likely push toward the front if the race goes long and green.
3. Market Value vs. Model Probability
The market still treats Gibbs as a fringe contender, but simulations give him a 36% chance to finish inside the top five β much better than his implied odds (25%). Heβs starting on the front row with arguably the cleanest pit box and short-run stability to hang there all afternoon.
π’ AI simulation for Ty Gibbs
- Projected finish: 8th
- Simulated odds for top-X: 36.1%
- Confidence rating: ββββ (4 out of 5 stars)
π Best NASCAR long shot at Martinsville
ποΈ Cole Custer
- Racing team: No. 41 (Haas Factory Team Ford)
- Starting position: 6th
- Best odds: +10000 via BetMGM ($10 to win $1,000)
β Why Cole Custer can win at Martinsville
1. Career-Best Qualifying and Early Track Position
Custer shocked the field by qualifying 6th, his best-ever starting spot at Martinsville and first top-10 grid slot in over two months. On a track where clean air and inside-lane restarts dictate success, starting inside Row 3 gives him a legitimate shot to stay in the lead group through the first stage.
2. Steady Short-Track Improvement
While Haas Factory Team hasnβt been a weekly contender, Custer has quietly improved on flat tracks. Heβs posted three top-15s in his last five short-track starts, with excellent long-run braking consistency and low incident rates. That makes him one of the few deep-value drivers with both speed and control at Martinsville.
3. Perfect Chaos Profile for a Long Shot
Late-race restarts and stack-ups often decide Martinsville β and Custerβs blend of patience and aggression makes him well-suited to capitalize when leaders overheat or tangle in Turn 1. If a late caution flips pit strategy, a top-6 starting position and solid pit crew could translate into an upset podium finish or even a win.
π’ AI simulation for Cole Custer
- Projected finish: 16th
- Simulated odds to win: 2.1%
- Confidence rating: ββ (2 out of 5 stars)
π€ NASCAR AI projections today
Here is our predicted Xfinity 500 finishing order and results for every driver based on AI projections. While ChatGPT is a large language model and not specifically designed for predicting sporting events, it can spot trends or insights that NASCAR bettors might overlook.
π Projected finish order at Martinsville
- William Byron (No. 24, Hendrick Motorsports) π₯
- Denny Hamlin (No. 11, Joe Gibbs Racing) π₯
- Christopher Bell (No. 20, Joe Gibbs Racing) π₯
- Kyle Larson (No. 5, Hendrick Motorsports)
- Ryan Blaney (No. 12, Team Penske)
- Joey Logano (No. 22, Team Penske)
- Chase Elliott (No. 9, Hendrick Motorsports)
- Ty Gibbs (No. 54, Joe Gibbs Racing)
- Brad Keselowski (No. 6, RFK Racing)
- Chris Buescher (No. 17, RFK Racing)
- Kyle Busch (No. 8, Richard Childress Racing)
- Tyler Reddick (No. 45, 23XI Racing)
- Alex Bowman (No. 48, Hendrick Motorsports)
- Ross Chastain (No. 1, Trackhouse Racing)
- Chase Briscoe (No. 19, Joe Gibbs Racing)
- Cole Custer (No. 41, Haas Factory Team)
- Ryan Preece (No. 60, RFK Racing)
- Michael McDowell (No. 71, Spire Motorsports)
- Austin Cindric (No. 2, Team Penske)
- Todd Gilliland (No. 34, Front Row Motorsports)
- Bubba Wallace (No. 23, 23XI Racing)
- Daniel SuΓ‘rez (No. 99, Trackhouse Racing)
- Josh Berry (No. 21, Wood Brothers Racing)
- Erik Jones (No. 43, Legacy Motor Club)
- Carson Hocevar (No. 77, Spire Motorsports)
- Zane Smith (No. 38, Front Row Motorsports)
- John Hunter Nemechek (No. 42, Legacy Motor Club)
- Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (No. 47, HYAK Motorsports)
- AJ Allmendinger (No. 16, Kaulig Racing)
- Justin Haley (No. 7, Spire Motorsports)
- Noah Gragson (No. 4, Front Row Motorsports)
- Ty Dillon (No. 10, Kaulig Racing)
- Austin Dillon (No. 3, Richard Childress Racing)
- Riley Herbst (No. 35, 23XI Racing)
- Shane van Gisbergen (No. 88, Trackhouse)
- Cody Ware (No. 51, Rick Ware Racing)
- Casey Mears (No. 66, Garage 66)
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π° NASCAR AI picks for Martinsville
| Bet | Driver | Odds | Profit ($10 bet) |
|---|---|---|---|
| π Pick to win | William Byron | +310 | $31 |
| π° Best prop bet | Ty Gibbs (top-5) | +300 | $30 |
| π― Best long shot | Cole Custer | +10000 | $1,000 |
Xfinity 500 betting odds and public splits (via BetMGM)
| Driver | Odds Movement | Ticket % | Handle % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Larson | +700 β +500 | 9.8% | 12.6% |
| Ryan Blaney | +400 β +625 | 8.8% | 12.2% |
| Chase Elliott | +1000 β +475 | 8.8% | 10.4% |
| Joey Logano | +900 β +1000 | 8.2% | 8.2% |
| William Byron | +700 β +350 | 6.5% | 7.7% |
| Denny Hamlin | +400 β +475 | 6.4% | 6.9% |
| Christopher Bell | +675 β +1200 | 6.3% | 5.7% |
| Kyle Busch | +600 β +3500 | 4.6% | 4.9% |
| Chase Briscoe | +1200 β +2000 | 3.7% | 4.2% |
| Bubba Wallace | +1200 β +4000 | 3.4% | 2.2% |
| Ty Gibbs | +5000 β +1600 | 2.8% | 1.4% |
| Ross Chastain | +3000 β +2500 | 2.3% | 1.9% |
| Shane van Gisbergen | +50000 β +50000 | 2.3% | 0.9% |
| Michael McDowell | +25000 β +35000 | 1.9% | 0.9% |
| Tyler Reddick | +3000 β +10000 | 1.8% | 0.6% |
| Ryan Preece | +25000 β +15000 | 1.8% | 0.7% |
| Alex Bowman | +3000 β +4000 | 1.7% | 0.9% |
| Brad Keselowski | +3500 β +10000 | 1.7% | 0.7% |
| Carson Hocevar | +4000 β +10000 | 1.7% | 0.6% |
| Josh Berry | +2500 β +8000 | 1.4% | 0.8% |
| Austin Cindric | +6000 β +8000 | 1.4% | 0.8% |
| Chris Buescher | +2500 β +10000 | 1.4% | 0.5% |
| AJ Allmendinger | +25000 β +15000 | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| Austin Dillon | +15000 β +15000 | 1.2% | 0.9% |
| Cole Custer | +15000 β +10000 | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| John H. Nemechek | +50000 β +10000 | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| Daniel Suarez | +25000 β +25000 | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| Ty Dillon | +75000 β +75000 | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Zane Smith | +35000 β +35000 | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | +35000 β +35000 | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Noah Gragson | +25000 β +35000 | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Todd Gilliland | +50000 β +50000 | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Justin Haley | +100000 β +50000 | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Cody Ware | +500000 β +100000 | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Riley Herbst | +75000 β +100000 | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Casey Mears | +200000 β +1000000 | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Erik Jones | +25000 β +8000 | 0.4% | 0.1% |
πΊ How to watch NASCAR at Martinsville: 2025 Xfinity 500
- Date: Sunday, Oct. 26
- Start time: 2 p.m. ET
- Track: Martinsville Speedway (Ridgeway, Va.)
- TV: NBC
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