Dream vs. Liberty Prediction: WNBA Semifinals Game 3 Picks for Friday, Oct. 9
My Dream vs. Liberty prediction hinges on a strong start by New York tonight in Game 3. Tipoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET at Barclays Center, airing on ESPN2.
The Liberty are a 2.5-point betting favorite to keep their season alive, but it's difficult to bet against a hot Dream squad that leads the WNBA championship odds. So, I'm sticking with New York's first-quarter market instead.
Dream vs. Liberty prediction: WNBA picks
See all of our experts' WNBA picks based on the latest WNBA odds.
| 💰 Pick | ⚖️ Bet size (units) | 🧠 Why I bet this |
|---|---|---|
| Liberty Over 21.5 first-quarter points (-118 via FanDuel) | 1u → 0.85u | The Liberty have scored at least 24 points in the first quarter of both games in this series. |
| Breanna Stewart Over 3.5 assists (-132 via FanDuel) | 1u → 0.76u | Breanna Stewart has cleared this assist line in six of her last seven games. |
Total wagered: 2 units | Max profit: 1.65 units
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Who will win Dream vs. Liberty?
I predict the Liberty will avoid elimination in Game 3 with a two-point win over the Dream. However, I'm not confident enough to bet on any full-game markets. Atlanta has won nine straight games, including four matchups against New York, dating back to late August.
Score prediction: Liberty 87, Dream 85
Dream vs. Liberty prediction & best bet
Liberty Over 21.5 first-quarter points (-118)
This is a classic spot to back a Liberty team down 2-0 in the series, especially after the overtime timeout controversy. My favorite way to do that is by betting the Over on New York's first-quarter team total.
The Liberty have scored at least 24 points in the first quarter of both games in this series. They also scored 24 points in the opening period of their regular-season meeting with the Dream on Sept. 21.
New York averaged 22.7 points in the first quarter of home games during the regular season. I'll take the Over on this total at 21.5 or better.
Best Dream vs. Liberty player prop bet
Breanna Stewart Over 3.5 assists (-132)
Breanna Stewart will have to continue to be brilliant if the Liberty want to avoid elimination for at least one more game.
Stewart finished with 35 points, 11 rebounds, and six assists in a Game 2 loss. She continues to be one of the best players in the league, even if her team has been overmatched in this series.
I wouldn't be surprised if Atlanta sent more double teams at Stewart, forcing anyone else to make a shot. That could lead to an extra assist or two for a player in complete control right now. Stewart has dished at least four assists in six of her last seven outings.
Dream vs. Liberty same-game parlay
A two-leg parlay of my picks has a +184 payout at FanDuel. Adding New York's moneyline value would raise the odds to +287, but I'm done betting against the Dream for now. They've been the league's hottest team since returning from the international break, so I'll need to see them lose before I step in front of that train again.
💵 Dream vs. Liberty SGP picks
- Liberty Over 21.5 1Q points (-118)
- Breanna Stewart Over 3.5 assists (-132)
Best odds: +184 via FanDuel (0.1u -> 0.18u)
Live Dream vs. Liberty odds
How to watch Dream vs. Liberty
- Date: Friday, Oct. 9
- Tipoff: 7:30 p.m. ET
- Location: Barclays Center (Brooklyn, N.Y.)
- TV: ESPN2
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