2025 Wurth 400 Predictions at Texas: Best NASCAR Odds, Expert Picks & Prop Bets Today

The NASCAR Cup Series takes on Texas today after a thrilling race at Talladega last weekend. Ford delivered to help us cash on +150 odds, and our Wurth 400 Predictions once again back one of those cars to win.

We so nearly cashed our Ryan Preece ticket at +3000, and we'll be looking to hit on the outright winner for today's race. The action at Texas Motor Speedway gets underway at 3:30 p.m. ET (FS1), and the latest Wurth 400 odds show Kyle Larson as a sizeable favorite, trailed closely by teammate William Byron.

Unsurprisingly, BetMGM reports that both the highest ticket percentage and highest handle for today's race are on Larson. Will the favorite pull out the victory?

👉 Check out our NASCAR AI picks & predictions for a full projected finish order.

📊 2025 Wurth 400 odds & favorites at Texas

Here are the latest Wurth 400 odds and favorites at BetMGM as of Sunday following qualifying for Texas Motor Speedway.

🥇 Wurth 400 betting favorites 🥇

• Kyle Larson, +375 ($10 to win $37.50)
• William Byron, +550 ($10 to win $55)
• Tyler Reddick, +750 ($10 to win $75)
• Ryan Blaney, +800 ($10 to win $80)
• Denny Hamlin, +900 ($10 to win $90)
• Christopher Bell, +1200 ($10 to win $120)
• Ty Gibbs, +1600 ($10 to win $160)
• Chase Elliott, +1800 ($10 to win $160)
• Bubba Wallace, +2200 ($10 to win $220)
• Joey Logano +2200 ($10 to win $220)
• Alex Bowman, +2200 ($10 to win $220)
• Austin Cindric, +2200 ($10 to win $220)
• Chase Briscoe, +2500 ($10 to win $250)
• Josh Berry, +2500 ($10 to win $250)
• Carson Hocevar, +2500 ($10 to win $250)
• Chris Buescher, +3000 ($10 to win $300)
• Kyle Busch, +3500 ($10 to win $350)
• Brad Keselowski, +3500 ($10 to win $350)
• Ross Chastain, +4000 ($10 to win $400)

Claim our BetMGM bonus code, SBRBONUS, to receive up to $1,500 in bonus bets by placing a wager of any amount on theWurth 400 or any other market!

🏁 Wurth 400 predictions, expert picks & best bets at Texas

Editor's note: These predictions were made before qualifying; odds may have changed.

Texas Motor Speedway is a high-speed intermediate track, which means driver talent matters somewhat less while equipment matters somewhat more. When we were last on a high-speed intermediate, Josh Berry pulled off a surprising win at Las Vegas despite leading only a handful of laps. 

The action at Las Vegas pointed to one clear trend: Fords, which had long struggled on such tracks, had speed again. Of the top 10 drivers by average green flag speed, four were behind the wheels of Fords: Berry, Joey Logano, Austin Cindric, and Ryan Blaney - all of whom drive for Team Penske or its affiliate, Wood Brothers Racing.

While Larson and Byron ranked first and second in average green flag speed, respectively, I don’t think their team has as much of an edge here as it did for last year’s event, in which Larson and Chase Elliott led 148 of 276 laps. That's why I'm predicting Ryan Blaney will win the Wurth 400 at Texas.

🏆 Pick to win Wurth 400: Ryan Blaney (+950 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐

No driver has had worse luck than Blaney this season, but I think he will finally right the ship with a strong run at Texas. While Blaney hasn’t won a points-paying race in Texas before, he won the 2022 All-Star race here. He did so in dominant fashion, leading 84 of 140 laps in the event.

Blaney was running well here last year before late-race trouble took him out of the event. He qualified seventh, improved to sixth by the end of Stage 1 and third by the end of Stage 2, and even managed to lead 17 laps - only to wind up in 33rd. A similar fate befell him in 2023.

As a result of Blaney’s recent woes, his average finish here in Texas sits at a dismal 17.4. That said, he owns the best average starting position here (9.8) of all active drivers with four-plus starts at Texas; Ty Gibbs (7.3) edges him slightly but has made just three starts.

Blaney’s luck must improve at some point, and these +950 odds via FanDuel are too good to pass up.

💎 Best value bet to win Wurth 400: Chase Elliott (+1800 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐

When Elliott won at Texas Motor Speedway last year, he was well below teammates Larson and Byron on the oddsboard at +1400. This year, you can back Elliott to win at Texas at ... +1600 odds? Make it make sense!

To be fair, Elliott was slower than Larson and Byron at Las Vegas, ranking 12th in average green flag speed and posting just a 10th-place result. He also ranked worse by that metric than his teammates here last year. He probably loses to both without some cautions or strategy calls.

While the books are overcharging for Larson (+375) and Byron (+600), they’re giving us a great deal on Elliott this week, making him the best value bet on the board with a winning $10 bet at FanDuel returning a $180 profit.

🎯 Best long shot to win Wurth 400: Austin Cindric (+8000 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Can last week’s winner run it back? Probably not, but the books are simply being disrespectful with this number. While his teammates - Blaney (+800), Logano (+1800), and Berry (+2500) - are all somewhat undervalued, they aren’t in the true long-shot category that Cindric finds himself in at +8000.

Sure, Cindric hasn’t done much in Cup equipment, especially not here. His average finish of 22.3 leaves much to be desired, especially since Cindric hasn’t managed as much as a top 10. However, Cindric won here once in the Xfinity Series and routinely posted double-digit led lap totals.

I’m not excited about Cindric’s chances of going back-to-back, but there is no better long-shot bet for the Wurth 400 than a dart throw at bet365 for him to do just that.

💰 Best Wurth 400 prop bets & picks at Texas

When it comes to high-speed intermediates, are the Fords back? There is some evidence that Team Penske is at least, and Brad Keselowski even finished P2 here last season. Both of our Wurth 400 prop bets for Texas will pin our hopes on the Blue Ovals, albeit in different manners.

🔥 Best prop bet for Wurth 400: Ford winning manufacturer (+330 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐

When the implied odds for 13 of 38 entrants to win the race are this long, you simply have to get some exposure, especially with the resurgence in speed we saw in Las Vegas.

Of the 10 best cars by average green-flag speed in Vegas, four were Fords and five were Chevrolets. Yet Toyota clocks in at +170 while we can get Ford at +330. The books haven’t adjusted their priors, so it’s a good spot for us to capitalize.

If we assume all things are equal, the raw odds of a Ford winning are 34.2% simply by the sheer volume of competitors - clearly beating out the implied probability of +330 (23.3%). With a $10 wager returning a $33 profit, lock this one in at DraftKings.

🚀 Best long-shot prop bet for Wurth 400: Ricky Stenhouse Jr. top-10 finish (+1100 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

FanDuel has done a poor job setting odds for drivers toward the back of the field to score a top-10 result at Texas this weekend. While DraftKings caps the top-10 odds at +1000 (and BetMGM at +1400 for all but two drivers), a number of drivers at FanDuel are in sincere long-shot range just for a top 10.

A $10 bet on Stenhouse to score a top-10 result here - which he accomplished in 2023 - will return a profit of $110. He is +800 at BetMGM and +500 at DraftKings. Lock this wager in before the inefficient number gets adjusted.

📈 Wurth 400 trends & Texas Motor Speedway history

Here are a few Wurth 400 trends to consider before betting on Sunday's race at Texas Motor Speedway.

🏎️ Who needs the pole, anyway? Since Kyle Larson won from the pole here in 2021, the Gen 7 car debuted, and no polesitter has yet returned to Victory Lane - or even the top two spots, for that matter. The three winners since 2022 started fourth, 18th, and 24th.

🏎️ Chevrolet has been running the show. Bowties have won every points-paying race (and all but one non-points paying race) held at Texas dating back to 2021.

🏎️ Count on Brad Keselowski. Now the pilot of the No. 6 Ford, Keselowski has scored a top-10 finish in every race held at Texas, points-paying or not, since the 2020 season - a streak that stretches a whopping eight races long.

💡 How to bet on NASCAR at Texas

When it comes to betting on the action at a high-speed intermediate, it’s worth noting that the Gen 7 car has transformed these tracks from cookie-cutter snoozers to pass-heavy battles, sometimes even treating us to surprise winners like Berry a few weeks ago.

• Pay attention to practice. Top-end speed matters a lot here, so check out what drivers’ 10-lap averages look like before finalizing your betting card for Sunday’s event.
• Long shots are fine, but they probably need to be affiliated with a major team. The last 10 winners at Texas Motor Speedway came from a “Tier 1” tear: Hendrick, RCR, JGR, or SHR.

🏆 Past Texas Motor Speedway winners

Here is a look at the last 10 winners at Texas Motor Speedway entering Sunday's race.

📺 How to watch the 2025 Wurth 400 at Texas

📅 Sunday, May 4
🕒 3:30 p.m. ET
📍 Texas Motor Speedway (Fort Worth, Tex.)
📺 FS1 | 🛜 FOX Sports App

❓ Wurth 400 FAQs

Who is favored to win the Wurth 400?

Kyle Larson is the favorite to win the 2025 Wurth 400 at +375, which would yield a $37.50 profit on a $10 bet.

What are the odds for the NASCAR race at Texas?

Kyle Larson (+375), William Byron (+600), Tyler Reddick (+700), and Ryan Blaney (+800) own the shortest odds to win the Wurth 400.

What time is the 2025 Wurth 400?

The 2025 Wurth 400 starts on Sunday at 3:30 p.m. ET (FS1) from Texas Motor Speedway.

How to watch the 2025 Wurth 400

You can watch the Wurth 400 on FS1 or stream it via the FOX Sports App.

Who won the Wurth 400 last year?

Chase Elliott won at Texas last year after opening at odds of +1400 to do so.

🏁 Best NASCAR betting sites for Wurth 400 at Texas

Looking to bet on the Wurth 400 at Texas Motor Speedway? Here are our best sports betting sites for NASCAR as determined by our expert team at Sportsbook Review, along with our best sportsbook promos ahead of Sunday's race at 3:30 p.m. ET.

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