🏁 NASCAR Predictions at Darlington 2026: Today's Goodyear 400 Picks, Best Bets & Odds

NASCAR is running 750 horsepower at Darlington for the first time in the Next Gen era, and my NASCAR predictions at Darlington are built around one word: survival. The Goodyear 400 gets underway today at 3 p.m. ET (FS1) at Darlington Raceway, and the extra power on one of the most abrasive surfaces in the sport is expected to create up to four seconds of tire falloff by the end of a run.

Tyler Reddick won the pole on Saturday and is the heavy +250 favorite, but I'm not biting at that price. Instead, I'm targeting the manufacturer with the deepest roster for this kind of race while spreading my action across the drivers best equipped to handle what could be a chaotic afternoon at the Lady in Black.

💰 My best NASCAR bets at Darlington

Here's a look at the actual bets I'm placing for the Goodyear 400 with the best raceday odds from all of our best sports betting apps ahead of today's race.

Total wagered: 5.25 units | Max profit: 22.83 units

💡 How I'm betting NASCAR at Darlington

All of the talk for weeks now has been about how crazy this race could get at Darlington with NASCAR running 750 horsepower for the first time at this track in the Next Gen era.

That same short-track package produced an incredible race at Phoenix, which saw the sport's best drivers leading the pack by the final lap. But unlike the flat 1-mile oval at Phoenix, Darlington's egg-shaped layout is one of the most punishing tracks on the schedule. The abrasive surface shreds tires under normal conditions, and the added horsepower is expected to push these drivers to their absolute limits.

We could see up to four seconds of tire degradation per run, which should create massive strategy windows and a ton of passing opportunities in the closing laps. That means this race is about survival and tire management more than raw speed. And there's one manufacturer particularly equipped to handle the potential chaos at Darlington today - the same one that has been lapping the field through the first five weeks of the season.

🏆 Best bet to win Goodyear 400

Toyota winning manufacturer (+105, 2u)

Normally I anchor my weekly card with a single driver, but I can't justify an "anchor bet" on any one driver this week given how volatile this race could be. Instead, I'm going heavy on Toyota in the manufacturer market ahead of what could be a crazy run.

Tyler Reddick is the best driver at this track by advanced metrics - he leads the field in weighted late-race running position (5.89), speed score (10.31), and positions gained per 100 green flag laps (14.1) - and he won the pole on Saturday after a blistering qualifying run even after scraping the wall. But he's priced so short that it's hard to justify an outright bet on a winless driver at the track nicknamed "Too Tough to Tame" for a reason.

Denny Hamlin won this race last year and is coming off a dominant victory at Las Vegas in which he led 134 laps, and his average finish at Darlington (7.9) is the best in the field. He also features the best gain-loss rating (1.29) at this track in the Next Gen era, and he's earned his reputation as a wizard of tire management on long runs like we expect today. That's all priced into his relatively short odds, as it should be.

When you factor in strong qualifying runs from Bubba Wallace and Ty Gibbs, the prolific track record for Chase Briscoe at Darlington, and the recent success here for perennial contender Christopher Bell, and it's hard for me to pick just one Toyota driver. With bet365 offering us plus-money odds on the entire manufacturer garage, we don't have to.

🏁 More NASCAR picks to win at Darlington

The best value on the board to me is Toyota as the winning manufacturer, but that doesn't mean I'm ignoring the outright winner market completely. Here are a few drivers I'm targeting to win today's Goodyear 400 at Darlington Raceway:

William Byron to win Goodyear 400 (+1300, 0.5u)

Reddick profiles as the standout driver at this track, but Byron isn't far behind with the second-best weighted average running position (6.85) and speed score (9.03) and most points earned (303) in the Next Gen era. He won this race in 2023 and had the fastest car here last spring, when he led a staggering 243 laps before getting caught late and finishing second. He's led laps here in six of eight Next Gen races here - if Toyota falls short, I suspect Byron is the reason.

Chase Briscoe to win Goodyear 400 (+1400, 0.5u)

Briscoe has won two of the last four races at Darlington, taking the last race at this track in August after leading 309 laps and sweeping both stages. Even after a poor qualifying effort, I'm pretty shocked to see the No. 19 team dealing at such a generous price, especially with a history of gaining track position as the race wears on at this track. If tire fall-off plays as big of a role as we expect, Briscoe is the type of driver who can take advantage.

Bubba Wallace to win Goodyear 400 (+1400, 0.5u)

Wallace has quietly been one of the better drivers in the field this year, finishing in the top 11 in all five races with a pair of top-10s in the last two weeks. Clearly 23XI Racing has a strong package at this track after Reddick and Wallace swept the front row in qualifying, which is a big deal at a track where passing can be at a premium on short runs. Wallace has finished in the top 10 in five of his last seven starts here; he should be in the mix for his first win today.

Erik Jones to win Goodyear 400 (+8000, 0.25u)

Two of Jones' three career Cup Series wins have come at Darlington (2019, 2022), and the advanced data shows why: he improves more from the first segment to the last than any driver in the field with eight starts here. He's a closer at a track he loves, and the expected tire chaos should only help his case. I wouldn't stake too much on a driver with inferior equipment, but it's pretty hard to ignore Jones at a long-shot price.

🔥 Best NASCAR prop bets at Darlington

This is a tougher race to bet confidently in the props market given that we truly don't know what to expect with the tire wear today, and I typically don't love targeting bets with short payouts without some degree of confidence. That said, these two props feel like the perfect complement to our outright winner bets above:

Tyler Reddick top-3 finish (+110, 1u)

I'm not particularly interested in betting Reddick at his short odds to win outright, but I'm particularly compelled by his top-3 odds after finishing on the podium in four of his eight races here in the Next Gen era - which doesn't count a P4 in last year's spring race. This prop is hovering between -125 and -160 at most shops, which makes these +110 odds at DraftKings an absolute steal by comparison.

Chase Briscoe top-5 finish (+225, 0.5u)

I understand the concerns about Briscoe's poor qualifying effort, but he's finished better than his starting position in six of his 10 career races at Darlington, and he was the class of the entire field in his last race here with the same team in Joe Gibbs Racing. I'm buying the dip in the market at these ridiculous outlier odds at Caesars.

🏁 Goodyear 400 odds & starting grid

Here's a look at the starting grid for the Goodyear 400 ahead of today's race at Darlington Raceway with the latest odds via BetMGM:

💵 My betting record for NASCAR picks

All NASCAR picks have been tracked since the Daytona 500 on Feb. 15.

🏆 Past NASCAR winners at Darlington

Here's a look at the last eight winners at Darlington Raceway in the Next Gen era:

📺 How to watch NASCAR at Darlington: 2026 Goodyear 400

• Date: Sunday, March 22
• Time: 3 p.m. ET
• Location: Darlington Raceway (Darlington, S.C.)
• TV: FS1
• Track: 1.366-mile, egg-shaped oval (293 laps, 400 miles)