2025 NASCAR Predictions at Kansas: Hollywood Casino 400 Odds, Best Prop Bets & Expert Picks

As the Round of 12 continues, we dive into the NASCAR Cup Series odds for the Hollywood Casino 400 before identifying our NASCAR predictions for Kansas. The action gets underway on Sept. 28 at 3 p.m. ET (USA Network) from Kansas Speedway.

We’re trusting William Byron to produce a strong performance.

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📊 2025 NASCAR odds & favorites at Kansas

📺️ How to watch Hollywood Casino 400

When: Sunday, Sept. 28 @ 3 p.m. ET

Track: Kansas Speedway (Kansas City, Kan.)

TV: USA Network

🥇 Hollywood Casino 400 betting favorites

• Kyle Larson, +375 ($10 to win $37.50)
• Denny Hamlin, +575 ($10 to win $57.50)
• William Byron, +700 ($10 to win $70)
• Ryan Blaney, +750 ($10 to win $75)
• Christopher Bell, +900 ($10 to win $90)
• Tyler Reddick, +1000 ($10 to win $100)
• Chase Briscoe, +1400 ($10 to win $140)
• Chase Elliott, +1500 ($10 to win $150)
• Ross Chastain, +1800 ($10 to win $180)
• Bubba Wallace, +2200 ($10 to win $220)
• Joey Logano, +2200 ($10 to win $220)
• Ty Gibbs, +2500 ($10 to win $250)
• Alex Bowman, +2500 ($10 to win $250)
• Chris Buescher, +2500 ($10 to win $250)
• Josh Berry, +2500 ($10 to win $250)
• Brad Keselowski, +2500 ($10 to win $250)

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🏁 NASCAR predictions, expert picks & best bets at Kansas

As the NASCAR Cup Series heads into Kansas, no driver is in a better position than Ryan Blaney. The pilot of the No. 12 Ford locked himself into the Round of 8 with a win at New Hampshire, leaving him free to go all-out for the win without consequence.

William Byron (+47 to the cut line) and Kyle Larson (+41) enjoy the next-best positions. Meanwhile, Ross Chastain (-12) and Austin Cindric (-19) find themselves with ground to gain, and Tyler Reddick (-23) and Bubba Wallace (-27) may need a win.

Kansas, a smooth intermediate track, lends itself to high speeds due to the lack of tire wear. Several similar tracks have already hosted a race this season, including Charlotte, Las Vegas, Texas, and, to a lesser extent, Michigan. The Cup Series also ran at Kansas back in May. One theme connected the majority of those events: Kyle Larson’s dominance. He posted the highest average green-flag speed in four of the five races.

The lone driver to record a higher average green-flag speed at a high-speed intermediate track this year is Byron, Larson's teammate at Hendrick Motorsports. Byron also notched the second-highest green-flag speed at Las Vegas, the third-highest at Texas, and the fourth-highest at Michigan. No team was as effective at these tracks, per the metric, even though Hendrick Motorsports won just one of those races.

📈 NASCAR trends at Kansas Speedway

🏎️ Let Larson cook. Since the NextGen Era began in 2022, Larson has made seven starts at Kansas, racking up a whopping two wins, four top threes, five top fives, and seven top 10s – including an impressive win from the pole earlier this season. 

🏎️ Dominant cars start up front. Over that same sample, the driver who led the most laps started from the first three rows during six races. The last two drivers who led the most laps began on the pole, and four of the last five to do so started on the front row.

🏎️ The fall race can be tricky. While dominant cars have often won the spring race, the fall race is yet to be won by the driver who led the most laps in the NextGen Era. The three fall race winners, Ross Chastain (52 laps led), Tyler Reddick (2), and Bubba Wallace (58) didn’t win a stage.

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🏆 Pick to win Hollywood Casino 400: William Byron (+700) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

As tempting as it is to ride the hot hand at these tracks with Larson, his odds just aren’t profitable enough for me to consider a wager. Instead, we’ll get his slightly less dominant teammate – who has been trending in the right direction at these tracks – for the far better price of +700 (12.5%), which would yield a $70 profit on a $10 bet at BetMGM.

Byron’s race-winning speed at Kansas hasn’t translated into a victory this year, but there's no better time for him to deliver. For one, it’ll lock him into the Round of 8. A in would also give him an extra five playoff points for the next round. And since the No. 24 team made it to the Championship 4 by a single point last year, we know that’ll be at the front of their minds.

The team showed me all I needed to see at Charlotte a few months ago. Byron didn’t win, but he led 283 of 400 laps en route to a runner-up finish and three stage triumphs. Byron also led the most laps during the latest high-speed intermediate race, which came at Michigan.

At +700, he's far too good a bet to pass up. 

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💎 Best value bet to win Hollywood Casino 400: Chase Elliott (+1600) ⭐⭐⭐

While Larson and Byron have been the dominant drivers at Hendrick Motorsports lately, it wouldn’t surprise me to see Chase Elliott pull off a win, and his odds of +1600 (5.9%) are friendly enough to warrant a wager. Elliott pulled off something similar at Texas, a comparable venue, last April. Further, as a playoff driver with few playoff points and only a 14-point gap to the cut line, a win would move the needle for his championship odds considerably.

Elliott hasn’t brought race-winning speed to the high-speed intermediates this year, but he's come with sufficient speed to score decent results. He was fifth by average green-flag speed here in the spring, seventh at Charlotte, and 12th at Las Vegas. Elliott won with the fifth-fastest car by the metric in Texas last year, so it isn’t exactly unprecedented for a driver with the speed he's shown this season to wind up in Victory Lane at a high-speed intermediate.

Lock Elliott in to score a surprise win, and a $160 profit on a $10 bet at Hard Rock Bet. He's +1500 at BetMGM as well.

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🎯 Best long shot to win Hollywood Casino 400: Ryan Preece (+7000) ⭐⭐⭐

Ryan Preece and the No. 60 team have been flashing plenty of speed this year. Preece has already doubled his career-best for top 10s with 10 through 30 events. He's almost doubled his career top-five total with three this year, too. The former open-wheel modified ace has been showing surprising dominance at high-speed intermediates this season, with one of his top-five results and four of his top 10s coming at such venues.

The green-flag speed probably isn’t there for the No. 60. Preece outperformed his equipment in all four of those top-10 finishes. Still, that’s a good sign, and he wasn't that slow. Preece ranked 11th in average green-flag speed at Charlotte, 14th at Las Vegas, and 22nd at Michigan. He also ranked 11th before finishing 29th at Texas. But it’s his 10th-place performance in the metric here last spring that intrigues me the most.

With no championship to fight for now, Preece should just be gunning for wins. He could make a statement on Sunday, and with odds of +7000 (1.4%) through DraftKings, I’m buying him to do so.

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💰 Best NASCAR prop bets & picks at Kansas

While the above drivers make sense as picks to win the race outright, we’ll spotlight a pair of drivers who are getting far better bets to put together a decent – but unspectacular – performance on Sunday while bringing their cars home inside the top 10.

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🔥 Best prop bet for Hollywood Casino 400: Carson Hocevar top 10 (+155) ⭐⭐⭐

Hocevar fits somewhere between being a value bet and a long shot on the outright markets. So instead, I recommend betting on him to finish in the top 10. His team is still jockeying for points positioning outside of the playoffs, which matters quite a bit come the end of the season (teams are paid out based on the final points position of their charters).

While he hasn’t shown raw race-winning speed like Elliott or Preece, Hocevar has come the closest among them at high-speed intermediates. He didn’t bring much speed to Kansas or Las Vegas, but Hocevar was 10th by average green-flag speed at Charlotte, third at Texas, and fifth at Michigan. He failed to turn any of that speed into a top-10 result, but Hocevar has calmed down now that the pilot of the No. 77 Chevrolet is out of the playoff hunt.

Hocevar has quietly recorded two top 10s and four top 15s – over just four races since the playoffs began at Darlington. With eight top 10 results on the year, Hocevar is a solid bet to score another, especially now that he's no longer fully risking it for the biscuit.

At +155 (39.2%), a $10 bet will earn you a $15.5 profit at Hard Rock. He's also +150 at DraftKings.

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🚀 Best long-shot prop bet for Hollywood Casino 400: A.J. Allmendinger (+750) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Death, taxes, and Hard Rock Bet hanging rogue numbers for NASCAR. A.J. Allmendinger is all the way out at +750 (11.8%) to score a top 10 when the next-best price you’ll find is the +410 (19.6%) at FanDuel. This bet is a solid one at either book, but I’d drop it to three stars at FanDuel.

Allmendinger is known for his road course expertise. But his No. 16 Chevrolet has been flashing serious speed at high-speed intermediates this year. He's recorded one top five and two top 10s over the five races at those tracks, far better performances than what would justify +750 odds.

Further, he was second by average green-flag speed at Michigan, 10th at Las Vegas, fourth at Charlotte, and eighth in Kansas during the spring.

💡 How to bet on NASCAR at Kansas

• Speed, speed, speed. High-speed intermediates reward drivers who bring high levels of raw speed to the track. Thumb through the recent results, laps led, and average green-flag speed data when handicapping these tracks.
• Don’t risk it all on drivers who need to be conservative (while Elliott is arguably in this spot, he checks all the boxes for potential high speed). If a driver can make his way into the next round based on points, look for him to try and do so, sometimes at the expense of a win.
• Throw some darts on guys with something to prove. Last year, non-playoff drivers won several postseason races: Talladega (Ricky Stenhouse Jr.), Kansas (Ross Chastain), and Watkins Glen (Chris Buescher).

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🏆 Past Kansas Speedway winners

Here is a look at the last 10 Kansas Speedway winners entering Sunday's race:

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❓ Hollywood Casino 400 FAQs

Who is favored to win the Hollywood Casino 400?

Per the current odds at BetMGM, Kyle Larson is favored to win the Hollywood Casino 400 at +375 (21.1%), which would yield a $37.5 profit on a $10 bet.

What are the odds for the Hollywood Casino 400?

Behind Larson at +375, Denny Hamlin (+575), William Byron (+700), and Ryan Blaney (+750) are among the favorites to win the 2025 Hollywood Casino 400.

What time is the 2025 Hollywood Casino 400?

The 2025 Hollywood Casino 400 starts at 3 p.m. ET (USA) on Sept. 28 at Kansas Speedway.

How to watch the 2025 Hollywood Casino 400

You can watch the Hollywood Casino 400 on USA.

Who won the last race at Kansas Speedway?

Kyle Larson won the spring race at Kansas Speedway after getting race day odds of +375.

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