🏁 Food City 500 Predictions & Odds 2026: NASCAR Picks, Props, Best Bets at Bristol Today

After a week off for Easter Sunday, the NASCAR Cup Series is back today with the Food City 500 at Bristol Motor Speedway starting at 3 p.m. ET (FS1, HBO Max). I'm backing Joe Gibbs Racing to stay hot with my Food City 500 predictions and fading the two fastest drivers in qualifying with my NASCAR picks and best prop bets at Bristol.

💰 Food City 500 picks: NASCAR at Bristol

Here's a look at the actual bets I'm placing for the Food City 500 with the best odds from all of our best sports betting sites within hours of the race today.

Total wagered: 5.5 units | Max profit: 17.82 units

💡 How I'm betting the Food City 500

While this is the second straight short track for the Cup Series after a week off, Bristol poses an entirely different chance than the paperclip at Martinsville. With high banking turns and a rough concrete surface that burns through tires across 500 laps, the best drivers at this track tend to be the ones who can best manage their tire wear and maintain speeds even when losing grip in the later stages of this race.

That has played right into Joe Gibbs Racing's hands in the Next Gen era with Denny Hamlin (x2) and Christopher Bell (x1) winning three of the six races here since 2022. That's why I'm backing the flagship Toyota racing team and one of its top drivers to win today while fading the fastest qualifiers in Ryan Blaney and Tyler Reddick - two elite drivers with wins this year whose shaky profiles at Bristol make them worth leaving off your bet slip this week.

🏆 Best bet to win Food City 500

Christopher Bell to win Food City 500 (+1100, 1u)

By the advanced metrics, Bell is the best driver at this track and it's not particularly close. He won the last race here in the fall, his sixth consecutive top-10 finish and fourth top-five result in six races in the Next Gen era, and he leads the field here in average finish (5.17) while gaining more net positions per race (0.84) than any other driver in that run, per Lap Raptor.

Bell's starting position of 14th is his worst in the Next Gen era, which is why we're catching a discount on his price to win the race, but he's been the most consistent driver at this track for years. He also won the Trucks race here over the weekend and took the checkered flag in the last Cup Series race here, too. Don't overthink this one.

🏁 More NASCAR picks for Food City 500 at Bristol

Chase Elliott to win Food City 500 (+2600, 0.5u)

Elliott last won at Bristol in 2020, but he's been one of the most consistent drivers here in the Next Gen era with four top-10 results and a pair of runner-up finishes in the last six races at this short track. He's also coming off a short-track win two weeks ago at Martinsville and has quietly been one of the best at this track by advanced metrics.

His average finish of 12th is skewed by a wreck last year en route to a P38, but his weighted average finish (11.38) ranks sixth, and his change in POMS - how much faster he drives on the final segment than the first - is second behind only two-time winner Kyle Larson in Next Gen races here. He's a closer and is worth targeting at these long odds.

Chris Buescher to win Food City 500 (+3300, 0.5u)

It feels like Buescher always flies under the radar even at tracks where he's proven his mettle - including at Bristol, where he won the first Next Gen race in 2022 despite starting 20th. He ranks first in the entire field in positions finished above expected (+59.20) - even higher than Bell (+56.29) - and his starting position today is the best in his career. At these odds, how could we not take a shot?

Ross Chastain to win Food City 500 (+3500, 0.5u)

It wouldn't be a NASCAR bet slip without the No. 1 car, right? I don't always target Chastain for every track, but this is another where the numbers are hard to ignore: he ranks fourth in PFAE (+41.45) while posting the fifth-best increase in speed from the first to last segment among those with six races here. He's live to win this race.

🔥 Best NASCAR prop bets for Food City 500 at Bristol

We're stacking our NASCAR prop bets this week with our outright picks above, taking two of our top picks to finish in the top five with a high-value top-10 bet to close out. But our anchor prop bet this week is our highest leverage play of the entire slate.

Joe Gibbs Racing winning team (+165, 1.5u)

Whenever a team shows this much dominance at one track, I'm always going to be intrigued by their odds in the winning team market, especially with so many strong candidates to win the race. I broke down Bell's case above, but this bet also includes Hamlin - who has won twice here in the Next Gen era - and teammates Chase Briscoe and Ty Gibbs, who both start in the top five ahead of today's race.

Christopher Bell top-5 finish (+180, 0.5u)

Bell has finished in the top 10 in all six races at Bristol in the Next Gen era with four of those six finishes coming in the top five, including his win last September. That's a 66.6% hit rate on a top-five finish with these +180 odds implying a 35.71% rate - that's tremendous value and well worth doubling up on Bell to post a strong result.

Chase Elliott top-5 finish (+400, 0.5u)

We're catching much better odds on Elliott to finish in the top five, even though he's pulled it off twice in his last six races at Bristol. Given Hendrick Motorsports' success at this track, this feels like a strong value on the most recent race winner to finish in the top five of today's race.

Chris Buescher top-10 finish (+185, 0.5u)

This exact prop bet is dealing at -110 odds at some shops ahead of today's race, which makes sense considering he's finished in the top 10 in three of six Next Gen races at Bristol and five of his last nine dating back to 2020. So these plus-money odds via FanDuel are an absolute treat and well worth including on the bet slip.

💵 My betting record for NASCAR picks

All NASCAR picks have been tracked since the Daytona 500 on Feb. 15.

🏆 Past NASCAR winners at Bristol

Here is a list of every NASCAR race winner at Bristol in the Next Gen era, excluding dirt races:

📊 Food City 500 betting odds: NASCAR at Bristol

Here’s a look at the latest odds to win Sunday’s race at Bristol via BetMGM:

🏁 Food City 500 starting grid

Here's the starting grid for today's race with Ryan Blaney as the pole-sitter.

📺 How to watch Food City 500: NASCAR at Bristol 2026

• Date: Sunday, April 12
• Time: 3 p.m. ET
• Location: Bristol Motor Speedway (Bristol, Tenn.)
• TV: FS1, HBO Max
• Track: 0.533-mile short track (500 laps, 266.5 miles)
• Stages: Stage 1 (125 laps), Stage 2 (125 laps), final stage (250 laps)