NASCAR Cup Series Championship Race: Phoenix Betting Odds, Expert Picks & Predictions
The NASCAR Cup Series championship begins today at 3 p.m. ET (NBC) as we offer our expert picks, predictions, and race preview for this title showdown at Phoenix Raceway.
- Ryan Blaney is the favorite to win today's race and the NASCAR Cup Series championship across our best sportsbooks
- Martin Truex Jr. won the pole Saturday in qualifying and owns the best raceday odds to win outside of the Championship 4 drivers
- We also have our eyes on Joey Logano and Christopher Bell as part of our best NASCAR prop bets and winner predictions
Here is our race preview for today based on the latest NASCAR betting odds.
NASCAR championship odds at Phoenix 2024
Phoenix raceday odds from our best sports betting sites; last updated Nov. 10
| Driver | Odds (FanDuel) | Implied probability | Profit ($10 bet) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Blaney | +350 | 22.22% | $35 |
| William Byron | +500 | 16.67% | $50 |
| Joey Logano | +500 | 16.67% | $50 |
| Christopher Bell | +850 | 10.53% | $85 |
| Martin Truex Jr. | +1100 | 8.33% | $110 |
| Kyle Larson | +1200 | 7.69% | $120 |
| Tyler Reddick | +1400 | 6.67% | $140 |
| Ross Chastain | +1600 | 5.88% | $160 |
| Chase Elliott | +2400 | 4.00% | $240 |
| Denny Hamlin | +2800 | 3.45% | $280 |
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2024 NASCAR Cup Series Championship Race predictions, expert picks
NASCAR picks made Sunday at 10:30 a.m. ET; odds subject to change. Confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.
- Ford to win (+125 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Team Penske to win (+137 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Ryan Blaney to win (+285 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
- Joey Logano to win (+500 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
- Christopher Bell to win (+850 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐
Who will win NASCAR Cup Series Championship Race at Phoenix?
It all comes down to this: four drivers still have a chance to win the Cup Series championship if they can survive 312 miles in the desert.
This 1-mile tri-oval has hosted the championship race since 2020 and features low banking and tight corners, making it a technical challenge for the drivers still in the hunt for the Bill France Cup.
This is a track that rewards skilled drivers with experience navigating the tight turns and crowded real estate that should make for one heck of a race today at 3 p.m. ET.
Team Penske seeks 3rd straight title
Team owner Roger Penske has become accustomed to success at Phoenix Raceway with two consecutive Cup Series titles courtesy of Blaney (2023) and Logano (2022). And both are in position to add to their trophy case.
Blaney is the favorite to win today's race after winning last week in Martinsville to keep his title defense alive. He was also the best car in practice on Friday, which is a good sign after Christopher Bell turned a dominant practice into a race win in March.
Phoenix has statistically been Blaney's best track over the years, as he's finished in the top five in each of his last six races here while leading a combined 287 laps.
Nobody has been better at Phoenix than his teammate Logano, whose three career wins at this track (2016, 2020, 2022) are the most among Championship 4 drivers.
Logano also paces the remaining four finalists in total laps led (908) at this track, which includes a staggering 187 laps led when he last raced for a title at Phoenix two years ago. He'll start second in today's race after a strong qualifying on Saturday.
Meanwhile, William Byron snuck into the Championship 4 after a controversial ruling at Martinsville, and he hasn't won a race since the first week of April. Tyler Reddick is making his first run at a title but was by far the slowest in practice and qualifying.
That's why I like Team Penske to win the race at these outlier +137 odds via bet365. My money is on Blaney among the drivers, but I wouldn't be surprised to see Logano - who offers better value at +500 odds - beat out his teammate and claim a third career Cup Series title.
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Don't sleep on Christopher Bell at Phoenix
All the way up until last week, it felt like the smart bet to predict Bell to win this final race at Phoenix Raceway and capture the first championship of his career.
Then the No. 20 was caught up in a controversial finish at Martinsville and denied a third consecutive berth in the Championship 4, so he'll be driving for pride (and a roughly $10 million purse) in his final race of the season.
Bell took the checkered flag at Phoenix in March, leading 50 laps after dominating in practice and qualifying, and he'll start seventh for today's race.
Bell has finished in the top four in three of his last four races, and he's checked into the top seven in nine of his last 11, so he's peaking at the right time ... aside from last week's frustrating finish.
He should be in the mix near the end of this race, and it wouldn't shock me in the slightest if he spoils the Championship 4 and takes this checkered flag for himself - or, at the very least, leads all Toyota drivers to cash these +200 odds via DraftKings.
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Best NASCAR prop bets at Phoenix
- Over 2.5 Fords in top 10 (-125 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐
- Christopher Bell top five (+110 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐
- Christopher Bell top Toyota (+200 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Ryan Blaney to win NASCAR Cup Series championship (+200 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
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NASCAR Cup Series Championship Race past winners
| Year | Driver | Team |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | Ross Chastain | Trackhouse Racing |
| 2022 | Joey Logano | Team Penske |
| 2021 | Kyle Larson | Hendrick Motorsports |
| 2020 | Chase Elliott | Hendrick Motorsports |
| 2019 | Denny Hamlin | Joe Gibbs Racing |
| 2018 | Kyle Busch | Joe Gibbs Racing |
| 2017 | Matt Kenseth | Joe Gibbs Racing |
| 2016 | Joey Logano | Team Penske |
| 2015 | Dale Earnhardt Jr. | Hendrick Motorsports |
| 2014 | Kevin Harvick | Stewart-Haas Racing |
How to watch NASCAR Cup Series Championship Race at Phoenix
- Date: Sunday, Nov. 10 at 3 p.m. ET
- Track: Phoenix Raceway
- Length: 1 mile (312 laps, 312 total miles)
- How to watch: NBC
- Defending winner: Ross Chastain
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