Mercury vs. Fever Prediction, Expert Picks & WNBA Odds: Prepare for a Track Meet in Indianapolis
The last time the Phoenix Mercury (12-10) faced the Indiana Fever (9-14), rookie Caitlin Clark finished one rebound shy of a triple double in a six-point Fever win. Our best sports betting sites have the Mercury favored by 2.5 points in Friday's rematch, which tips off at 7:30 p.m. ET (ION) from Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis.
Indiana remains one of the biggest long shots by the WNBA championship odds, but our Mercury vs. Fever prediction features a Caitlin Clark player prop bet that we keep finding ourselves drawn to amid the best stretch of her WNBA career.
Mercury vs. Fever expert picks
Pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale; odds via our best sports betting apps.
- Over 172.5 (-110 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
- Caitlin Clark to record 10+ assists (-112 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Caitlin Clark to record 13+ assists (+350 via bet365) ⭐⭐
Mercury vs. Fever predictions for Friday
Over 172.5 ⭐⭐⭐
I'll be honest: I don't really trust either of these teams. So I'd much rather bet them to sort this out in a track meet than predict which one will actually win the race.
That's not a bold statement when it comes to the Fever, whom I thought would easily handle the now 6-17 Washington Mystics before they ultimately lost Wednesday in a 89-84 home defeat. It was the fourth time in their last six games that they've allowed at least 88 points, though their offense has shown flashes in that run, too.
The Mercury's fourth-ranked offense can be blistering, as evidenced by two 100-point outings against the Dallas Wings this week, but they've also lost games with inconsistent pressure on the other end. The total is between 173 and 173.5 across the rest of our best sportsbooks, which is an extra gift from DraftKings for this bet.
Best odds: -110 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 52.38%
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Caitlin Clark player props vs. Mercury
Caitlin Clark to record 10+ assists ⭐⭐⭐⭐
While the Fever are struggling with defense and early deficits, Clark is clearly growing confidence as a facilitator. And that's helped make us some money, too.
We've highlighted Clark's assist total multiple times over her last six starts, during which she's averaged 11.5 assists with at least 11 dimes in all but one. She owns the WNBA's highest assist rate (47.3%) in that stretch while also pacing the field minutes per game (38.6), three times reaching 13 assists by the final horn.
All of that is the perfect recipe for her to once again cash this total at these manageable -112 odds from FanDuel, which pay out $8.93 in profit for a $10 wager.
Best odds: -112 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 52.83%
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Caitlin Clark to record 13+ assists ⭐⭐
I'm sure I don't have to explain why I might like this bet given everything I just laid out for the wager above.
I'm a little surprised to see these relatively long odds on something she's done in back-to-back games, though, both at home. She's now cashed this prop in three of her last six games, and she's dropped her turnover ratio to 16.9 in those six starts after a 21.4 turnover ratio in her first 17 starts.
Clearly, something's changed. None of that means she's certain to have 13 assists on Friday - that's still her career high, and bet365 is dealing this alt-total at longer odds for a reason. If you make one bet on this game, make it the first assist prop. But this is tough to ignore if you're looking for a complementary (smaller) bet at a pretty compelling price.
Best odds: +350 via bet365 | Implied probability: 22.22%
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Mercury vs. Fever odds
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mercury | -2.5 (-110) | -2.5 (-110) | -2.5 (-105) | -3 (-110) | -2.5 (-110) |
| Fever | +2.5 (-110) | +2.5 (-110) | +2.5 (-115) | +3 (-110) | +2.5 (-110) |
Mercury vs. Fever game info
- When: Friday, July 12
- Tip-off: 7:30 p.m. ET
- Where: Gainbridge Fieldhouse (Indianapolis)
- How to watch: ION
- Favorite: Mercury -2.5 (-110 via bet365)
Mercury-Fever predictions made Friday at 12:30 a.m. ET.
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