How to Bet Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua at Kalshi: What Prediction Market Says About Who'll Win

People all over the nation will be able to enjoy tonight's Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua heavyweight bout with a little extra excitement, thanks to legal and regulated trading markets like Kalshi.

Though Joshua is the heavy betting favorite across our best boxing betting sites, it doesn't hurt to have a little something extra on the biggest combat sports event of the year. The former world champion and Olympic gold medalist is given as high as an 88% chance to beat Paul tonight at Kaseya Center in Miami. The main card - available exclusively and at no extra charge to subscribers on Netflix - will begin at 8 p.m. ET. Paul and Joshua are expected to begin their ring walks around 10:30 p.m.

🥊 Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua odds: Who will win on Netflix?

Prediction market via Kalshi. You can use our Kalshi promo code for a $10 bonus by signing up today. Market subject to change.

As of Friday afternoon, the Paul vs. Joshua heavyweight bout has drawn more than $19 million in trading volume at Kalshi. It would cost 90 cents for a share of Joshua, and 11 cents for a share of Paul.

There are many more Paul vs. Joshua props available at Kalshi, including method of victory, round finish, to win by knockout, first-minute finish, and fight to go the distance.

Paul vs. Joshua props

Method of victory

Those looking to turn a proper profit on tonight's Paul vs. Joshua main event will need to look to the prop markets. Things get a little more interesting when trying to predict the method of victory.

Joshua by decision or technical decision is my best prediction for tonight's fight, while factoring value. Joshua is the proven (professional) fighter, and outclasses Paul physically. If this is a fair fight, it goes to the Englishman.

But it's important to remember this is a Paul fight, on Netflix, on the Friday before Christmas. The streaming giant will want to draw this out and maximize user retention. Give me Joshua by decision or technical decision at 7 cents a share.

Round of finish

As I'm expecting this fight to go to the judges, I'll need to stay away from this market. I may sprinkle on "fight ends before Round 3" at 40 cents a share as a hedge in case Joshua utilizes his full power.

To win by knockout

Kalshi is giving Jake Paul OR Anthony Joshua to win by knockout a 50% chance of happening. It costs 53 cents to back the yes, and 50 cents for the no. Give me the no for 50 cents.

First-minute finish

The fight ending in the first 60 seconds of Round 1 is being given just an 8% chance. Traders are either giving Paul a large amount of respect or expecting Joshua to bide his time and wear down his younger opponent.

Alternatively, fight goes the distance is being given a 24% chance, with yes trading at 24 cents and no at 77 cents.

Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua novelty props

Like the Super Bowl, Kalshi customers have an assortment of novelty props to choose from tonight. The most significant being Jake Paul's walkout song:

"Something Different" by Why Don't We is the current favorite at the time of writing, with yes trading at 25 cents for it to be the chosen song. Considering we're six days from Christmas, "Rockin' Around the Christmas Tree" by Brenda Lee has a 14% chance of being the walkout song. That would be my pick for 13 cents, considering Paul's constant showmanship.

Paul reportedly told ESPN's Andreas Hale "I have a very infamous artist walking me out with rainbow hair".

We can even make predictions for what the announcers (Mauro Ranallo, David Haye, and Crystina Poncher) will say during the Netflix broadcast. This prediction market can be treated as a sort of bingo and traders can follow along throughout the fight and cash their picks during the festivities.

"Upset" or "underdog" is the most likely phrase to be cited with a 57% chance, and trading at 57 cents for yes.