Do You Think Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua is Scripted? How to Win Money Tonight
We get it. There are plenty of reasons to think Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua might be scripted.
But, this time at least, it's not. Our best boxing betting sites are all offering Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua odds, with the former world champion the heavy consensus betting favorite across all markets with moneyline odds around -1200 (92.31% implied win probability). This is a legal, regulated, sanctioned, professional bout. It's legit.
Why, then, would Paul agree to the fight after typically fighting some combination of much smaller and older opponents? Well, he may have answered that question during a press conference this week. And money (possibly north of $200 million) talks.
But here's how to bet tonight's fight - available at no extra charge to Netflix subscribers - if you're concerned.
What the Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua odds tell us
Anthony Joshua is the heavy moneyline favorite
Odds via DraftKings:
| Jake Paul | Method of victory | Anthony Joshua |
|---|---|---|
| +800 | Win outright | -1200 |
| +1800 | Win by KO/TKO/DQ | -380 |
| +1400 | Win by decision | +400 |
| Draw (+2200) | ||
| Over: -145 | Over 2.5 rounds | Under: +110 |
Despite the lion's share of the Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua betting action siding with the former YouTuber - 93% of tickets and 83% of the handle as of Friday afternoon - our best sports betting sites have held steady on the moneyline odds and most prop markets. A winning $10 bet on Joshua to win straight up - either within the eight, 3-minute rounds or at the judge's table - would return a profit of just 83 cents.
With a winning $10 bet on Paul pulling the upset returning a profit of $80, sportsbooks face a significant liability if the impossible happens tonight at Kaseya Center in Miami, live on Netflix.
This suggests that despite the liability they face on Paul, oddsmakers are scared to make Joshua's odds to win any more attractive in fear of a landslide pouring in on the fighter who should win. Sharps generally wait out the best number and come in heavy with significant bets once they see the odds they want.
This is a game of cat-and-mouse. The sharps will happily sit this one out - at least in terms of moneyline bets - and the books will be happy to take all the money that came in on Paul and run, expecting the logical finish to tonight's fight.
Betting lines expect the fight to go past 2.5 rounds
| Over | Total rounds | Under |
|---|---|---|
| -145 | 2.5 | +110 |
The total rounds fight line for tonight's fight opened at 2.5 with equal -115 odds on both sides. Hours from ring walks, the Over is favored at -145, with new plus-money (+110) odds on the Under.
While Joshua carries every possible physical advantage, plus considerably more professional experience, oddsmakers don't see him capitalizing (or utilizing) that full power early in the fight. The betting lines see this at least reaching the third round.
Where has the odds movement been?
While there has been no movement in Joshua's odds to win the fight, other than a brief lengthening Thursday evening, Paul's odds have stretched from +750 to +800 in the hours before the fight. That's an additional $5 in profit on a winning $10 bet. Despite already facing far more liability with a Paul win, the sportsbooks have made the underdog bet even more attractive.
Other than the odds moving toward the fight going past 2.5 rounds, here are the highlights of the odds movement in the Paul vs. Joshua fight lines:
- Joshua to win by KO/TKO/DQ has lengthened to -380
- Paul to win by KO/TKO/DQ has lengthened
- Joshua to win by decision has shortened from +450 to +400
How to bet Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua: Strategy and best bet
💡 What to consider when betting Paul vs. Joshua
Anthony Joshua is five inches taller, has eight inches more reach, and weighs nearly 30 pounds more than Paul. Oh, he's also far more accomplished in professional boxing and sports an Olympic gold medal.
As with all Paul endeavors in the ring, the only real question here is the legitimacy of the fight. With it being deemed professional and sanctioned, fears of any wrongdoing should be eliminated. Joshua at -1200 seems about as safe of a bet as we could hope for tonight.
That line of thinking, and belief that this is a fully legitimate fight that Joshua will win has brought me to my Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua best bet:
Anthony Joshua by decision or technical decision (+400)
This is a fight on Netflix for the masses rather than boxing purists. It's a Friday night immediately before Christmas, and the streaming giant will want to prolong audience times and viewer retention while promoting its two NFL broadcasts on Christmas Day, the next volume of "Stranger Things", and all else it has to offer for the holiday period.
Paul's notorious self-promotion has also been heavily laden with "Rocky" references over the past three weeks, and he's cited David vs. Goliath many times.
Rocky lost his first fight via decision.
Anthony Joshua vs. Jake Paul expert picks
Here are the rest of our best Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua fight card predictions for the main event:
- How to bet Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua at Kalshi
- Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua expert picks
- Do you think Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua is scripted?
- Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua AI predictions
- Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua walkout song predictions
- Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua best bet
- Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua prop bets
- Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua method of victory
- How long will Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua last?
- Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua novelty picks
- Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua betting action
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