Donald Trump Impeachment Odds: Will President Be Impeached Prediction Market

An American president has been impeached four times, and Donald Trump is tied to half of that total. Early in an election year then it's the right time to take a long look at the Donald Trump impeachment odds.

Trump's aggression on the world stage is growing with Venezuela targeted, and conversations about Greenland being next ongoing. That's all happening as Democrats build momentum toward the midterms. When they regain any power, the slightest misstep for Trump can be costly.

🛑 Will Donald Trump be impeached?

The prediction market from Kalshi is showing a gradual increase in Trump's impeachment chances over time.

Prediction market via Kalshi. You can use our Kalshi promo code for a $10 bonus by signing up today. Market subject to change.

It's not a coincidence that the percentages begin to rise early in 2027. By then the midterm elections will be long over, though any fresh faces in the Senate or House wouldn't have had time to get rolling yet. Democrats are widely expected to control the House after the midterms.

That's why the real spike in the percentages at Kalshi comes early in the following year, just as the push toward the next presidential election begins, with the Republicans well-represented in the U.S. presidential election odds for 2028. Trump will be far into his lame-duck period at that point, so some of his more center-leaning fellow Republicans could get hesitant to throw their full support behind him.

👋 Why was Donald Trump impeached previously?

Trump became the first president to be impeached twice during his first term.

The first came due to the Ukraine scandal, in which the Democratic-controlled House of Representatives approved impeachment articles via the judiciary committee. The action was tied to a phone call he had with Volodymyr Zelensky in July 2019, when he asked the Ukrainian president to investigate Joe Biden, who would face him in the 2020 election.

Democrats saw that as seeking foreign aid to interfere with an election, and Trump was impeached on both that charge and obstruction of congress. However, only one Republican (Mitt Romney) voted to impeach during the subsequent trial in the senate, and Trump was found not guilty.

The second impeachment was tied to the infamous events of Jan. 6, 2021, when a mob stormed the nation's capital following unrest tied to the results of the 2020 election, which Biden won. Trump was accused of inciting an insurrection, and this time there was more Republican support in the House, with 10 members of Trump's own party joining Democrats.

However, the timeline was unique, as the House voted to impeach just a week before Trump was set to leave office. The trial in the Senate then didn't begin until Feb. 9, and that alone prompted many Senate Republicans to vote against even holding a trial.

The proceedings still went ahead. A two-thirds majority is needed for conviction in the Senate, and although more Republicans joined the Democrats this time with seven voting to convict, the motion still fell short of the super majority needed.

Still, Trump became the first former president to face trial while out of office.

❌ Why would Donald Trump be impeached again?

He may overstep, with his aggression tied to foreign policy and takeovers. We've already seen him use the mighty power of the American military to arrest Nicolas Maduro in Venezuela, and now whether he'll invade Greenland in 2026 is suddenly a legitimate question and concern.

His approval rating currently sits at a lowly 44%, according to The Economist. That's 10 percentage points below where Biden sat during the same point in his term, and 12 points under Trump's own mark nearly a year into his first term. Overall during his second term he's down 18 points from where Trump started.

Combine that poor approval rating with his foreign actions and the Democrats likely rising to power, and there's the recipe for another impeachment if he slips again, as Trump has done twice already.

🫏 Are the Democrats expected to do well in the midterms?

A blue wave is anticipated, but it's a matter of exactly how strong that surge will be come November.

Most polling shows the Democrats holding a sizeable advantage in the race for the House. That includes a recent poll from The Economist showing them maintaining a four-point lead. The party out of power typically holds the upper hand in midterms, and that's reflected in the percentages from Kalshi, too.

However, as we see below, it's a different story with the Senate.

Which party will win the House this year?

Which party will win the Senate this year?

If those prediction market percentages and the corresponding polling hold true, it's likely we would see the same result as before with any impeachment proceedings tied to Trump, with the House voting favorably before an acquittal in the Senate.

📋 What is the impeachment process?

It can be boiled down to two steps:

1. The House first brings and then adopts (votes in favor of) the articles of impeachment. The government official has been impeached if a vote in favor occurs.

2. The matter then goes to the Senate, which holds an impeachment trial. If the trial involves the president, the U.S. Supreme Court Chief Justice presides. Conviction then requires a two-thirds majority vote among the senators. A guilty vote results in removal from office.