Carlos Alcaraz vs. Novak Djokovic Predictions & Odds for 2024 Wimbledon Men's Final
Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic meet in the Wimbledon final for the second consecutive year, and we have you covered with our best Alcaraz vs. Djokovic predictions based on the odds from our best sports betting sites.
Sunday marks the sixth head-to-head meeting between Alcaraz and Djokovic and their third in a tournament final, with each winning one. Alcaraz is the consensus Wimbledon odds favorite to repeat as champion. The final takes place at the All England Club in London and starts at 9 a.m. ET (ESPN).
Djokovic is appearing in his 37th major final, the most all-time among men and women. He joins Roger Federer and Bjorn Borg as the only men to reach six straight Wimbledon finals. His semifinal victory over Lorenzo Musetti was his 120th career win on grass, passing Andy Murray for the most grass-court wins among active players.
Meanwhile, Alcaraz brings a 13-match winning streak overall and at Wimbledon into the match.
Alcaraz vs. Djokovic odds
(Odds via our FanDuel; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale)
| Market | Alcaraz | Djokovic |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -160 | +130 |
| Spread | -2.5 (-110) | +2.5 (-110) |
| Over/Under | Over 40.5 (-118) | Under 40.5 (-112) |
Alcaraz vs. Djokovic prediction
Alcaraz ML ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Alcaraz has come a long way from cramping up due to nerves when he lost in four sets to Djokovic in the 2023 French Open semifinals. While Djokovic has won two of the three head-to-head meetings since then, he is only a month removed from knee surgery.
Alcaraz has arguably the most dangerous drop shot on tour, and that will likely be a big part of his arsenal, testing Djokovic’s fitness and will in a match that is likely to last four-plus hours (last year’s Wimbledon classic lasted 4 hours and 42 minutes).
I love Alcaraz’s chances if this match again goes the distance, as his 12-1 career five-set record is the best of any player in the Open Era. Alcaraz proved again in the semifinals that he is as resilient as they come, improving to 9-9 when losing the first set at a major while dropping Daniil Medvedev’s record to 72-8 after winning the first set.
Djokovic is 81-2 when winning the first set in a Wimbledon match, but one of those losses was to Alcaraz in last year’s final, when the Spaniard rebounded to win three of the final four sets.
With a win, Alcaraz, at 21 years and 70 days old, would match “the Big Three’s” (Djokovic, Nadal, Federer) number of Grand Slam wins at the same stage of their careers. Going into the match, Alcaraz is one of seven to win his first three major finals.
I expect Alcaraz to remain unbeaten in major finals while sending Djokovic to a third defeat in his 10th Wimbledon final. Alcaraz to win outright is a four-star play, as he is 5-0 in matches against top-five players this season and 17-9 overall. He also owns 30 victories over top-10 players.
The -155 odds at BetMGM yield a 60.78% implied probability, and a winning $10 wager would pay out $16.45.
Best odds: -155 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 60.78%
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Wimbledon final best odds
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -160 | -160 | -155 | -160 | -163 |
All five of our best sports betting apps are closely aligned with their moneyline offerings, but BetMGM is our preferred shop, providing the best odds (-155).
The previous two finals between Alcaraz and Djokovic went to a deciding set, so there's also value in backing Alcaraz’s +400 odds to win in five sets at DraftKings. All set betting combinations at DraftKings have +310 odds or higher.
Alcaraz vs. Djokovic H2H stats
| Alcaraz | Stat | Djokovic |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Matches won | 3 |
| 0 | Wins in straight sets | 1 |
| 7 | Sets won | 10 |
| 81 | Games won | 92 |
| 1 | Wins on grass | 0 |
Wimbledon final match info
- When: Sunday, July 14
- Where: All England Club (London)
- How to watch: ESPN
- Favorite: Alcaraz (-155 via BetMGM)
Alcaraz-Djokovic pick made Friday at 6 p.m. ET
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