Carlos Alcaraz vs. Fabio Fognini Prediction, Odds & Best Bet: Wimbledon 2025 Expert Picks

Two-time defending champion Carlos Alcaraz opens his three-peat quest against world no. 130 Fabio Fognini as we offer our prediction for Monday's match.

Gary Pearson

Last Updated: June 29, 2025 7:00 AM EDT • 3 minute read

Carlos Alcaraz vs. Fabio Fognini Prediction, Odds & Best Bet: Wimbledon 2025 Expert Picks — Pictured: Two-time defending champion headlines our Carlos Alcaraz vs. Fabio Fognini Prediction, Odds & Best Bet for Monday's Round 1 match. Photo by Ben Whitley via Imagn Images

The two-time defending Wimbledon champion kicks off his three-peat quest on Monday (8:30 a.m. ET, ESPN) as we offer our Carlos Alcaraz vs. Fabio Fognini prediction.

The slick Spaniard has -10000 odds at FanDuel, carrying a 99.01% implied probability, to brush past world no. 130 Fognini. We scoured our best sports betting sites to source two palatable picks for the quintessential David vs. Goliath showdown.

🎾 Carlos Alcaraz vs. Fabio Fognini prediction & best bet

🔎 Our NEW player props odds tool can help you find the best Wimbledon odds across legal sportsbooks in your area!

✅ Pick to win: Carlos Alcaraz (-10000 via BetMGM) ⭐
✅ Best prop bet: Alcaraz Over 18.5 games (+100 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐

Read on for the latest odds and full analysis of our best bets ⤵️

📊 Carlos Alcaraz vs. Fabio Fognini odds: Wimbledon 2025

Latest Wimbledon odds via BetMGM; implied probability via our odds converter.

Player	Odds to win	Probability
Carlos Alcaraz	-10000	99.01%
Fabio Fognini	+2800	3.45%

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🏆 Carlos Alcaraz vs. Fabio Fognini expert pick to win

✅ 1st set score after 4 games: 3-1 Alcaraz ⭐⭐⭐

📊 Best odds: +110 via FanDuel ($10 to win 11)
🔢 Implied probability: 47.62%

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There's almost no chance Fognini pulls off this upset. While the Italian peaked at No. 9 overall in the world rankings, he's been on a steady decline in the six years since. He's 0-3 on grass during his rather abbreviated season, failing to get past the first round.

He's 0-6 this season, which is about to be 0-7. Alcaraz, the Wimbledon odds favorite, is a perfect 5-0 on grass this season, which culminated in winning the Queen's Club Championships.

And he carries a 14-match winning streak into Wimbledon. I expect him to start fast on an immaculate Centre Court, with the out-of-practice Italian struggling to keep up. FanDuel offers the best odds of our best sports betting apps, and a winning $10 bet will yield an $11 profit.

💰 Best Carlos Alcaraz vs. Fabio Fognini prop bet

✅ Alcaraz Over 18.5 games ⭐⭐⭐

📊 Best odds: +100 via DraftKings ($10 to win $10)
🔢 Implied probability: 50%

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While he might not win a set, Fognini has a decent history, albeit over a small sample size, against Alcaraz.

Fognini lost both previous meetings against Alcaraz, both on clay in Rio de Janeiro, but forced a third and decisive set in 2023 and won five games in the second set during the 2022 match.

Even if a straight sets victory is on the cards for Alcaraz, a likely outcome, Fognini should keep one set competitive, winning five or six games.

That will be enough to push Alcaraz Over on this prop. DraftKings offers +100 odds, which would yield a $10 profit on a winning $10 bet.

📺 How to watch Carlos Alcaraz vs. Fabio Fognini: Wimbledon 2025

📍 Date: Monday, June 30
🕘 Time: 8:30 a.m. ET
🏟️ Location: All England Club (London)
📡 How to watch: ESPN, ESPN+

💵 Best tennis betting sites

Want to bet on Wimbledon 2025? Check out the best sportsbook promos for this season's summer major:

FanDuel Promo Code | Read our FanDuel Review
DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review
Hard Rock Bet Promo Code | Read our Hard Rock Bet Review

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Each betting site featured on SBR has been meticulously researched and selected by our team of experts. If you sign up through our links, we may get a commission.

Written by:
Gary Pearson

Gary Pearson has written professionally since 2010, focusing on sports betting since 2014. Before entering the sports betting space, he contributed to the Canadian Press, FanSided, the Hockey Writers, the Calgary Herald, and other publications. His work has also been featured in Sports Illustrated and Bleacher Report. Gary, who consumes sports like a blue whale devours plankton, has a penchant for writing predictions and analyses across several sports, including hockey, soccer, football, tennis, and more. He bets regularly, preferring single-game picks, props, and live betting. While there isn't a sport he has yet to dabble in, Gary prefers betting on soccer, hockey, and football. He studied at various post-secondary institutions, including the University of Calgary, SAIT Polytechnic, and Griffith University, located in Brisbane, Australia. Gary has a marketing degree and completed his bachelor's degree in journalism at Griffith University. He feels strongly that life experience is as essential as post-secondary education, helping formulate more accurate predictions and analyses. Gary believes that competing at a high level of amateur sports during his formative years helped him better understand an athlete's psyche and the nuances and complexities of a team's dynamic, both on and off the playing surface. He feels that knowledge is immeasurably important when offering his analytical expertise. He has lived on five continents and currently resides in Canada.