Canelo Alvarez vs. Terence Crawford Prediction, Odds & Expert Picks: Super Middleweight
Undisputed super middleweight supremacy is on the line tonight as Canelo Alvarez defends his throne against the undefeated Terence “Bud” Crawford at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas with the main card set for 9 p.m. ET (Netflix).
Our Canelo vs. Crawford prediction expects a fierce bout tonight with Alvarez welcoming the challenger to 168 pounds after reclaiming undisputed status with a decision over William Scull this past May. The verdict marked Canelo’s sixth straight victory, bringing his record to a whopping 63-2-2.
Crawford, on the other hand, aims to become undisputed champion of a third weight class, having cleaned house at both light welterweight and welterweight. He moves up to 168 pounds just 13 months removed from a decision win over Ismail Madrimov at light middleweight.
🔮 Canelo vs. Crawford predictions
Check our best boxing betting sites for the latest odds for this fight.
- Pick to win: Canelo Alvarez (-165 via DraftKings)
- Best bet: Alvarez by decision (+125 via DraftKings)
🥊 Canelo vs. Crawford fight preview
Had these two met in the middle, I’d have bet on Crawford keeping his “0” intact, but super middleweight is a bridge too far - even for “Bud.”
As a man who cut his teeth at light welterweight and welterweight, Crawford moves up a whopping 21 pounds from the latter weight class to face Canelo, who naturally boasts the edge in punching power and experience at super middleweight. As Canelo himself can attest with his brief experiment at 175 pounds, an easier weight cut doesn’t guarantee easier results, and Crawford will learn that the hard way come Saturday night.
Given their respective styles, the pair should keep the action away from the ropes, with Crawford switch-hitting while Canelo works from the center of the ring. Granted, Crawford is the greatest technician Alvarez has faced in some time. But while he’ll certainly have the champ’s respect, he’ll soon find that super middleweight punches are simply a different beast, with Alvarez landing the more consequential blows en route to the W.
Despite the enormous jump in weight, Crawford enters fight night with a good bit of respect from oddsmakers, who’ve listed him as only a slight underdog. That means solid value on a seventh straight win for Canelo, with DraftKings (-165) edging out FanDuel in moneyline value (-180).
✅ Prediction: Alvarez to win (-165 via DraftKings)
💰 Canelo vs. Crawford best bet
Canelo at 168 pounds may be a big leap for Crawford, but that doesn’t mean the victory will come easily to the defending champ.
Thanks to his six straight decision wins over a mixed bag of competition, Alvarez has earned a reputation for a lack of urgency in recent years. Between that and Crawford’s in-ring IQ and exceptional adaptability, this dance has all the makings of a 12-round affair.
Crawford’s stance switches, defensive savvy, and methodical ways should keep Canelo honest from first bell to last, with the latter’s body work and power punching being enough to sway the judges for another win on points.
As with our moneyline bet, DraftKings beats FanDuel only slightly with a win on points at +125. If you’re banking on the defending champ swaying all three judges, a bet on a unanimous decision offers even greater value at a solid +225 with DraftKings.
✅ Best bet: Alvarez by decision (+125 via DraftKings)
📊 Canelo vs. Crawford odds
Odds via DraftKings; subject to change.
| Alvarez | Method of victory | Crawford |
|---|---|---|
| -165 | Win outright | +135 |
| +380 | Win by KO/TKO/DQ | +800 |
| +225 | Win by unanimous decision | +320 |
| +1400 | Draw | +1400 |
🆚 Canelo vs. Crawford tale of the tape
| Alvarez | Crawford | |
|---|---|---|
| 35 | Age | 37 |
| 5’7.5” | Height | 5’8” |
| 168 lbs. | Weight | 168 lbs. |
| 76” | Reach | 73” |
| 63-2-2 | Record | 41-0 |
📺 How to watch Canelo vs. Crawford fight
- Date: Saturday, Sept. 13
- Time: 9 p.m. ET (main card)
- Location: Allegiant Stadium (Las Vegas)
- TV: Netflix
❓ Canelo vs. Crawford FAQs
Who is favored to win Canelo vs. Crawford?
Canelo Alvarez is favored to beat Terence Crawford with -165 odds via DraftKings, which imply a 62.26% chance that Alvarez wins tonight, according to our odds converter.
Who will win between Canelo vs. Crawford?
I predict that Alvarez will beat Crawford by decision, which you can bet at +125 odds via DraftKings with a winning $10 bet returning a $12.50 profit.
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