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Mexican boxer Saul "Canelo" Alvarez gestures during the weighing ceremony prior to his fight against British boxer John Ryder as we look at our Alvarez-Charlo prediction.
Mexican boxer Saul "Canelo" Alvarez gestures during the weighing ceremony prior to his fight against British boxer John Ryder. Photo by Ulises Ruiz.

This Saturday in Las Vegas, two undisputed world champions will go head-to-head, and we're here to dissect the matchup in our prediction for Canelo Alvarez vs. Jermell Charlo.  

Canelo Alvarez is set to face Jermell Charlo in his third defense attempt as the undisputed champion in the 168-pound division. The 33-year-old boxer, who previously made an unsuccessful attempt to dethrone WBA light heavyweight champion Dmitry Bivol in 2022, has returned to the super middleweight division and secured consecutive decisions over rivals Gennady Golovkin and John Ryder. With a remarkable professional record of 59-2-2 and 39 career stoppages, Alvarez now faces Charlo, paving the way for an intriguing matchup.

In the other half of Saturday’s highly anticipated fight, Charlo makes his return to the ring after a 16-month hiatus. He previously stopped Brian Castano to win the WBO light middleweight crown, becoming the undisputed division champion. The 33-year-old fighter has an undefeated streak in his last five matches at 154 pounds, with his closest encounter to a defeat being his split draw with Castano in 2021. He enters this weekend’s match with an impressive career record of 35-1-1.

Here are our best Canelo Alvarez-Jermell Charlo picks for Saturday (odds via our best sports betting apps; Pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Canelo Alvarez vs. Jermell Charlo moneyline odds

Canelo Alvarez-425-480-400-420-450
Jermell Charlo+310+330+300+320+325

As the better-known commodity with the edge in strength of schedule, Alvarez is a sizable favorite entering the matchup (-400 via Draftkings) to the surprise of no one.

I see Alvarez winning handily, but not earning a 40th career stoppage at Charlo’s expense. Luckily, most of our best live betting sites are offering respectable value on a Canelo win through points, with DraftKings earning the nod at -110.

Canelo Alvarez vs. Jermell Charlo total rounds

Over 10.5-300-330-275-360-300
Under 10.5+210+235+200+230+225

The round props on Saturday’s clash of undisputed kings aren’t quite as lopsided as the moneyline. But compelling value is still lacking, with BetMGM leading the way while offering -275 on Over 10.5 Rounds.

Given the combined 58 stoppages between Alvarez and Charlo, betting the Under is understandably enticing and it offers an attractive payout. But I see Alvarez steadily getting the better of Charlo over 12 rounds, leaving little option beyond the Over with BetMGM.

Canelo Alvarez vs. Jermell Charlo pick

Alvarez by decision or technical decision (-110 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐

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Charlo is no slouch, but I’m compelled to side with the super middleweight luminary that is Alvarez. Being the shorter fighter, Alvarez’s habits of taking the center and working the body should serve him well against Charlo, who not only moves up two weight classes to face him, but he's also all too willing to fight off his back foot.

Despite coming out on top against Jeison Rosario, Charlo constantly gave up the center of the ring while eating repeated shots to the midsection in their 2020 bout. Canelo should replicate that gameplan without sharing Rosario’s fate.

Furthermore, Charlo may boast a solid jab, but he isn’t as active with it as he should be and doesn’t often throw the punch in combination. Alvarez is the superior technician heading into Saturday’s clash, and I expect him to exploit Charlo’s flaws, walk him down, commit to working the body, and remain the busier fighter to keep his super middleweight crowns.

With 19 stoppages in 35 wins, the wallop in Charlo’s mitts is certainly worth respecting. But Alvarez can methodically go the full 12 rounds against a puncher when needed, so he should act accordingly and outduel Charlo from the first bell to the last for a lopsided verdict on the scorecards.

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Alvarez-Charlo pick made 28/9/2023 at 12:06 a.m. ET

Canelo Alvarez vs. Jermell Charlo tale of the tape

Canelo AlvarezJermell Charlo
Weight168 pounds168 pounds
Reach179 cm185 cm

Canelo Alvarez vs. Jermell Charlo fight info

  • When: Sept. 30, 8 p.m. ET
  • Where: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada, US
  • How to watch: Showtime PPV

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