Australian Open Predictions 2026: Picks, Odds, Best Bets at Melbourne Park

The first major of the season is about to get underway, and my Australian Open predictions feature Jannik Sinner and Aryna Sabalenka. 

Both are the betting favorite to win Down Under, with Sinner trading at -120 and Sabalenka +190. Sinner is the back-to-back defending champion, while Sabalenka has won two of the previous three at Melbourne Park. My tennis predictions also feature Alexander Zverev and Naomi Osaka, both of whom have the skill set and track record to do some serious damage. The first round gets underway on Sunday, Jan. 18.

🎾 Australian Open predictions 2026

Picks confidence based on 1-to-5 star scale. For more tennis coverage, see more sports picks and betting analysis.

🏆 Australian Open men's pick: Jannik Sinner (-120) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

It's almost unheard of to start a tournament with minus-money odds to win. That alone encapsulates the Italian's dominance over everyone but Carlos Alcaraz.

Either Sinner or his Spanish adversary has won the previous eight Grand Slam titles, with the Italian triumphant in four, including the previous two Australian Opens. A banged-up Sinner lost to Alcaraz in the US Open Final, but I expect the No. 2 seed to avenge that defeat Down Under, where he is 22-4.   

The Australian Open is the only major Alcaraz hasn't won, and that will continue in 2026.  

🏆 Australian Open women's pick: Aryna Sabalenka (+190) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Sabalenka will be highly motivated after losing in last year's final to Madison Keys. The women's No. 1 seed won both previous Australian Opens and enters play with a 20-1 record in the last three visits to Melbourne Park.

Her lethal power, relentless work rate and much-improved serve perfectly suit the hot and fast conditions, and I have no doubt she will impress upon all challengers just how dominant she is. Sabalenka made the final in six of her previous majors, winning three. 

🔥 Best Australian Open prop bet: Naomi Osaka to advance further than Marta Kostyuk (+120) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Osaka advanced to the US Open semifinals, resembling the dominant player who won four majors before taking a sabbatical and becoming a mother. She has had enough time to regain her match sharpness and fitness, and she has the skill set to advance deep at the Aussie Open.

In addition, we're not too far removed since Osaka won two Australian Opens, in 2019 and 2021. Kostyuk, meanwhile, advanced past the third round just once in the previous seven majors and has never gone beyond the quarterfinals. 

🎯 Best Australian Open long shot pick: Alexander Zverev (+3300) ⭐⭐⭐

The best player on tour not to win a major will look to clear the final hurdle, with Zverev opening the tournament as the No. 3 seed.

Zverev has an excellent track record in Melbourne recently, finishing as last year's runner-up after losing to Sinner in the final and making the semifinals in the previous Australian Open.

Despite playing poorly for most of 2025, at least after he departed Melbourne, I'm still in Zverev's court, especially as Melbourne provides a fresh start. FanDuel offers +3300 odds, the best of the best sports betting sites. That's excellent value for this flier. 

📊 Australian Open 2026 BetMGM betting insights

Men's most bet tickets

1. Jannik Sinner 34.1%
2. Carlos Alcaraz 20.3%
3. Novak Djokovic 9.0%

Men's most bet handle

1. Jannik Sinner 50.5%
2. Carlos Alcaraz 24.1%
3. Novak Djokovic 8.2%

Men's biggest liability

1. Jannik Sinner
2. Carlos Alcaraz
3. Novak Djokovic

Women's highest ticket %

1. Aryna Sabalenka 16.3%
2. Amanda Anisimova 11.9%
3. Coco Gauff 9.1%

Women's highest handle %

1. Jessica Pegula 19.3%
2. Aryna Sabalenka 12.8%
3. Amanda Anisimova 11.5%

Women's biggest liabilities

1. Jessica Pegula
2. Amanda Anisimova
3. Naomi Osaka

📆 When does Australian Open 2026 start?

The first round of the Australian Open starts on Sunday, Jan. 18. The women's final will take place on Saturday, Jan. 31, and the men's on Sunday, Feb. 1. The tournament starts with 128 players on both sides of the draw and is cut in half after every round.