Argonauts vs. Roughriders Prediction, Expert Picks & Odds: Can Riders Stay Undefeated?
The Saskatchewan Roughriders look to stay undefeated when they face the Toronto Argonauts on Thursday, and we're offering our top Argonauts vs. Roughriders predictions based on the best CFL odds.
The Toronto Argonauts (2-1) are coming off their first loss of the season as they head to Mosaic Stadium in Regina, Sask. to take on the undefeated Saskatchewan Roughriders (3-0) on Thursday at 9 p.m. ET (TSN/RDS, CFL+).
Despite losing to the Montreal Alouettes last week, the Argos are 3.5-point road favorites against the Roughriders. But with Saskatchewan coming off a bye and overachieving under new head coach Corey Mace, could a strong performance propel them past Toronto in the Grey Cup odds?
Argonauts vs. Roughriders prediction
Pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale; odds via our best sports betting sites.
Roughriders +3.5 ⭐⭐⭐
Coming out of the Craig Dickenson era, I think Roughriders fans were being very cautious with their optimism about this Saskatchewan team. Dickenson went just 12-24 over his final two seasons as head coach, and the Roughriders haven't won the Grey Cup in over a decade.
Well, we're three games into the season and I think it's time Rider Nation starts getting its hopes up about what this team can be in Mace's first season. The Argos are the perfect litmus test for how serious Saskatchewan can be, especially with the West wide open as the Winnipeg Blue Bombers continue to struggle.
We've already seen Saskatchewan's offense work some magic this season in its 33-30 comeback against the Hamilton Tiger-Cats in Week 2. And in the rematch in Week 3, the Roughriders flexed their firepower, beating Hamilton, 36-20, at home.
Coming off their Week 4 bye, QB Trevor Harris should be revving to go. He's been arguably the most efficient passer in the CFL this season, completing 72.2% of his passes and averaging nine yards per attempt. It's certainly helped that Jerreth Sterns has elevated to an All-Star level. Sterns, Shawn Bane, and Kian Schaffer-Baker all rank top 20 in the CFL in receiving yards.
This passing attack has helped Saskatchewan put up the most points per game in the league (32.7) and is poised to give a struggling Argos' defense some grief. Not only did Toronto lose Mace as DC this offseason, but several of its top defenders left. Maybe the biggest loss was CB Qwan'tez Stigger, who was drafted in the fifth round by the New York Jets.
The Argos secondary has been torched without the reigning CFL Most Outstanding Rookie. Toronto's allowing the most passing yards per game (346), the highest QB rating (119.4), and the second-most points per game (31).
And even if the Argos want to sell out to stop the pass, All-Star RB A.J. Ouellette can punish his former team on the ground.
Roughin' up Dukes
What made this Toronto team so impressive at the beginning of the season was how little it seemed to miss Chad Kelly, who's serving a nine-game suspension.
Backup Cameron Dukes stepped into the starting role and had the offense humming in a Week 1 win against the BC Lions and Week 3 comeback against the Edmonton Elks. But he was rarely put in an uncomfortable position in those wins. Then, the Alouettes came to BMO Field and pressured him into making mistakes.
While the Roughriders defense has given up some big plays over the top, it's also managed to create turnovers with five interceptions in three games. Behind Mace's opportunistic defense, Saskatchewan is allowing the third-lowest QB rating in the CFL (97.1).
When Dukes has been at his best, it's been because he's had layup throws thanks to teams keying in on Ka'Deem Carey and the run game. However, that won't be so easy against the Riders - Saskatchewan allows the fewest rushing yards per game (32.7).
So as long as Saskatchewan can force Dukes into a few mistakes, I expect them to be in this thing until the end, and they have a strong chance of winning it, too.
There's a 51.22% implied probability the Roughriders cover and a $10 bet pays a $9.76 profit.
Best odds: -105 via Betway
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Argonauts vs. Roughriders first team to score
Roughriders (+110)
Backing Saskatchewan in this market has less to do with a strong belief that the Riders will score first and more to do with Toronto's odds being far too short for my liking. The Argos are -152 to score first, which pays just a $6.58 profit if they do. But Dukes is coming off a performance against Montreal where he was a deer in the headlights, and the Argos couldn't get in the end zone until garbage time with one minute left.
Meanwhile, Saskatchewan has one of the best young WR trios in the league, a veteran QB, and an All-Star RB. Maybe even more importantly, kicker Brett Lauther is 6-for-7 on field goals this season and 79.5% from 40-plus for his career.
Argonauts vs. Roughriders odds
Argonauts vs. Roughriders odds via Betway as of Wednesday at 10:55 a.m. ET.
| Teams | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Argonauts | -182 | -3.5 (-115) | Over: 47.5 (-115) |
| Roughriders | +150 | +3.5 (-105) | Under: 47.5 (-105) |
There's one team in the CFL that's undefeated ATS this season, and that's the Roughriders at 3-0. The Argos, on the other hand, are just 1-2 ATS and coming off a loss to Montreal, where they looked more like the Toronto Jr. Argos. I'm not surprised Toronto is the favorite, but by 3.5 points at Mosaic? That's a little nuts, given Rider Nation probably has the best home-field advantage north of the border.
A trickier market for this game is the total. Toronto's defense has been atrocious this season, and Saskatchewan has been the highest-scoring team in the CFL, but I don't have a great feel for how the Dukes will match up against the Riders on the road. Will he get back to being a trusted game manager, or will he flounder? Either way, I'd take the Over if I had to—Saskatchewan is 3-0 betting the Over, and Toronto is 2-1.
Argonauts vs. Roughriders game info
- When: Thursday, July 4 (9 p.m. ET)
- Where: Mosaic Stadium (Regina, Sask.)
- How to watch: TSN/RDS, CFL+
- Weather: 66 degrees, 5-mph winds, 20% chance of precipitation
- Favorite: Argonauts -3.5 (-115 via Betway)
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