⚾ Yankees vs. Mariners Prediction & Picks: MLB Odds for Tuesday, March 31

We're set for a classic pitcher's duel tonight, and the resulting low-scoring affair is key to my Yankees vs. Mariners prediction.

The Yankees have been repeatedly shutting down the opposition en route to their hot start, and the Mariners are doing much of the same while allowing one run or fewer in three of their first five outings.

Now it'll be a clash of two aces from T-Mobile Park beginning at 9:40 p.m. ET, with Max Fried vs. Logan Gilbert presenting a tantalizing mound duel. The Yankees enter as the narrow -112 moneyline favorites.

⚾ Yankees vs. Mariners picks & odds today

See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.

Total wagered: 1.20 units | Max profit: 2.89 units

🏆 Who will win Yankees vs. Mariners?

This will be a tightly pitched affair between two championship-caliber AL beasts. But the Yankees can prevail on the margins, largely because they have the left-handed thump to do enough damage against Gilbert.

Score prediction: Yankees 4, Mariners 2

💰 Yankees vs. Mariners prediction & best bet

Under 7 (-116)

The Yankees have allowed a mere three runs across their first four games, two of which were shutout wins. And now they trot out Fried, who notoriously stifles hard contact of any kind. Fried has sat among the top 10% in average exit velocity allowed during each of the past six seasons, including his 87.2 mph average last year, according to Baseball Savant.

Then there's Gilbert, whose 11.9 K/9 last season was a sizable step up from 9.5 the campaign before. And when he departs, Gilbert hands the ball off to the league's ninth-ranked bullpen last year (3.72 ERA).

🔥 Best Yankees vs. Mariners player prop bet

Max Fried Over 5.5 strikeouts (-114)

Fried may not quite be the strikeout pitcher we saw a few seasons back, but his 8.7 K/9 mark from last year is still set to play quite nicely against a whiff-prone Mariners team. He also finished out last season stronger than that, recording a 9.3 K/9 during the second half.

There's lots of power in Seattle's lineup, but that comes at a cost. The team recorded the sixth-most strikeouts last year, and early in a new season there are four Seattle regulars sitting at a 35% strikeout rate or worse.

What's key here too is the outlier price we're getting in the market. BetMGM sits at -114, while many of the other best sports betting sites are notably shorter at around -130, including bet365 at -140.

💣 Yankees vs. Mariners home run prediction

Jazz Chisholm Jr. to hit a home run (+575)

There may not be much scoring at all in this game, but some of it could easily come from the thwack of Jazz Chisholm Jr.'s torpedo bat.

Gilbert is somewhat vulnerable to the long ball after giving up 20 homers last year, and 26 the season before. But what's especially appealing about this matchup is Chisholm's ability to thrive against a key pitch for Gilbert, and do it from the left side.

The Yankees infielder sees cutters well, and he's fresh off a season when Chisholm slugged .730 against a pitch that Gilbert threw 20.9% of the time last year, making it his second-most used offering. Chisholm's effectiveness against cutters contributed to his 15% barrell rate, which put him in the 91st percentile.

🚀 Yankees vs. Mariners same-game parlay

Let's rely on the two ace starters to do their run suppression thing, especially Fried after his eighth-ranked ERA in MLB last year (2.86). Helping the southpaw's cause is that the Mariners recorded a batting average of .241 against lefties last season (17th).

The quality pitching and Fried hitting the Over on his strikeout total follows a low-scoring affair game script nicely. Then tossing in Chisholm to be one of the few who get to Gilbert due to the ideal matchup boosts the parlay.

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All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 27.

💡 How I'm betting Yankees vs. Mariners: MLB strategy

Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.

I feel confident enough in the pitchers tonight to put a full unit on both plays tied to a low-scoring outcome (the game Under and Fried's strikeout total).

That confidence grows when we look at how the Yankees have started hot, a 3-1 run featuring a heavy reliance on suffocating pitching and little offense. A 7-0 opening night win over the San Francisco Giants is the outlier, as there's been an average of 3.3 runs scored per game across New York's last three contests.

📊 Live Yankees vs. Mariners odds

There's been minimal movement so far at the best MLB betting sites, with the two leading World Series odds contenders in the AL even getting identical -110 moneyline odds at DraftKings. However, action at that book is slanted significantly toward New York, with the Yankees getting 82% of the moneyline bets.

Meanwhile, the total opened at a basement-level 6.5 due to the presence of the two overpowering starters. It's since shifted to 7, with the Over marginally getting more attention from bettors at 55% of the wagers through DraftKings.

It's likely the game total stays at that number given the nearly even action. However, it wouldn't be surprising to see some books shift to 6.5 on Fried's strikeout total, which is already happening. Stay away at that line.

📈 Yankees vs. Mariners betting trends

🚑 Yankees vs. Mariners injuries

📺 How to watch Yankees vs. Mariners

• Date: Tuesday, March 31
• First pitch: 9:40 p.m. ET
• Ballpark: T-Mobile Park (Seattle)
• TV: TBS
• Streaming: MLB.TV
• Yankees starter: Max Fried (1-0, 0.00 ERA)
• Mariners starter: Logan Gilbert (0-0, 5.06 ERA)