Yankees vs. Astros Prediction, Odds & Expert Picks Tonight: MLB Best Bets for Sept. 2
The Houston Astros welcome the New York Yankees to town for the first of a three-game series, and I'm offering my Yankees vs. Astros prediction as part of our MLB picks.
New York is a -120 moneyline favorite ahead of first pitch at 8:10 p.m. ET (TBS/truTV) at Daikin Park in Houston.
I'm expecting a pitcher's duel in a Yankees victory, which is why I'm also backing the Under on an Aaron Judge player prop. Be sure to check out our Gabe Henderson's best home run predictions today, which target two hitters from tonight's matchup.
⚾ Yankees vs. Astros expert picks & predictions
MLB expert picks made Tuesday; odds subject to change.
- Moneyline pick: Yankees (-118 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Run line pick: Yankees -1.5 (+145 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐
- Over/Under pick: Under 8 (-118 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
📝 Yankees vs. Astros preview & best bet
Track the latest MLB scores for line movement and matchup info.
🗽 Yankees ML (-118) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
The Yankees had Monday off after having their seven-game winning streak snapped in the series finale against the Chicago White Sox. But New York has made significant ground up in the AL East race by feasting on two last-place teams over the last week.
Though I recognize the step up in class New York is making by taking on the AL West leaders, this Yankees vs. Astros prediction is predicated around how good southpaw Max Fried has been following a team loss this year.
New York went 8-0 in Fried’s first eight starts after losses, as he pitched to a 0.83 ERA and struck out 48 batters in 54 innings in that span. He also went 6-0 in the first seven such starts, going at least six innings in each of them, while allowing zero earned runs five times.
Fried looks back to his old self by allowing eight hits and one run over his last 13 innings, which followed a stretch where he pitched to a 7.20 ERA over six starts.
Houston’s offense has been hot-and-cold as it has dealt with a slew of injuries this year, and was shut out for the ninth time over the weekend (the Astros haven’t been shut out 10-plus times in a single season since 2022).
The 54.13% implied probability for the Yankees to win is justified given that they are 12-6 after a day off, and have won both of their games when they have a rest advantage over their opponent. FanDuel is the only top sports betting site offering better than -120 odds to back the Yankees, and a $10 winning wager at its -118 odds would net a profit of $8.47.
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💰 Best Yankees vs. Astros player prop bet
Our MLB player prop odds tool shows the best odds for every market across legal sportsbooks in your area.
⬇️ Aaron Judge Under 1.5 total bases (-135 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Aaron Judge made history over the weekend by belting his 358th career home run and tying him for fifth place on the all-time Yankees list. But Judge is also in the midst of a bit of a slump by his standards since returning from the IL, which has me backing this Under as my best Yankees vs. Astros player prop bet.
Judge slashed .241/.417/.506 with six home runs and 12 RBIs in 24 games in August. He is just 2-for-10 in his career against Astros starting pitcher Framber Valdez, and the southpaw’s elite 98th percentile ranking in ground ball rate lowers Judge’s ceiling for total bases considerably.
The implied probability for Judge to record one or fewer total bases is as high as 59.18% through DraftKings’ -145 odds. But bettors are getting a slightly better price at Caesars, where a winning $10 wager would return $7.41 in profits.
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📊 Yankees vs. Astros odds: Sept. 2
MLB odds update live in real time.
📈 Yankees vs. Astros betting odds analysis
The Yankees rose slightly from -115 betting favorites to -120 overnight. The total has a great chance of reaching 8.0 across all top sports betting sites, as those that started at 7.5 with both sides juiced to -110 have now moved as high as -120 on the Over and +100 on the Under.
👀 Yankees vs. Astros betting odds update
The moneyline has shortened slightly, with New York now a -116 betting favorite at the best sports betting sites as of Tuesday afternoon after opening at -118.
🔢 Yankees vs. Astros stats
Season stats courtesy of baseball-reference.com.
| Yankees (76-61) | Statistic (per game) | Astros (76-62) |
|---|---|---|
| 5.25 | Runs | 4.18 |
| 8.48 | Hits | 8.52 |
| .250 | AVG | .252 |
| .456 | SLG | .399 |
| .787 | OPS | .717 |
| 3.92 | ERA | 3.79 |
| 9.06 | K/9 | 9.56 |
| 3.48 | BB/9 | 3.15 |
| 1.09 | HR/9 | 1.19 |
🚑 Yankees vs. Astros injuries
📺 Yankees vs. Astros game info
- When: Tuesday, Sept. 2
- First pitch: 8:10 p.m. ET
- Where: Daikin Park (Houston)
- How to watch: TBS/truTV
💡 Expert MLB predictions today
- MLB home run predictions today
- Mets vs. Tigers prediction
- Guardians vs. Red Sox prediction
- Yankees vs. Astros prediction
❓ Yankees vs. Astros FAQs
Who is favored to win Yankees vs. Astros?
The Yankees are the -120 betting favorite to beat the Astros on the road on Tuesday.
What is the run line for Yankees vs. Astros?
New York’s -1.5 odds are at +145 on the high end of the market, while Houston’s +1.5 odds range between -162 and -180.
What is the Over/Under for Yankees vs. Astros?
The top sports betting sites are split between an O/U of 7.5 (Over juiced to -120) and 8.0 (Under juiced as high as -130).
What are the best bets for Yankees vs. Astros?
My Yankees vs. Astros best bets back New York to win, with Aaron Judge going under his number of projected total bases.
When is the Yankees vs. Astros game?
The Yankees vs. Astros first pitch is set for 8:10 p.m. ET this evening, airing on TBS and truTV.
How do baseball odds work?
When betting on MLB, the run line shows how many runs the favorite needs to win by in order to cash the bet. For example, a favorite of -1.5 must win by two or more runs to cover the run line, while an underdog at +1.5 must win outright or lose by one run to cover the run line.
Moneyline odds represent the payout for picking the outright winner (+200 means a $100 bet wins $200, while -200 means a $200 bet wins $100). Over/Unders let you wager on whether the combined total of runs will be higher or lower than the set number.
You can determine the payouts and implied probabilities for any wager - or convert odds to different formats - with our odds converter.
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