WBC MVP Odds & Best Bets: Ohtani Just Ahead of Judge as Knockout Rounds Begin

The spotlight is about to get brighter as the knockout rounds begin, and I'm eyeing who will continue to ascend in my WBC MVP odds and best bets.

Shohei Ohtani is the new favorite, though at +550 he's only narrowly ahead of Aaron Judge at +600. There's a steep drop after those two, opening the door to capitalize on juicy odds for the many appealing sleepers who could emerge amid the craziness of a short tournament.

Let's assess the WBC MVP market, looking at the favorites and some dark horses to monitor.

📊 WBC MVP odds before quarterfinals

WBC MVP odds via DraftKings

Junior Caminero is one of the most significant climbers, but he's not alone.

The odds for Fernando Tatís Jr. may have lengthened a touch recently, but he's still way up from where the star outfielder started at +6000 through BetMGM. Getting on base 11 times over 18 plate appearances will have that effect, as will crushing a critical long ball during a win over Venezuela.

Going the other way, Bryce Harper has fallen from +1600 to +2800, largely due to limping along with a .200 average.

🏅 Can Ohtani prevail as the new favorite?

He's done it once before while taking the WBC MVP honors in 2023, though Ohtani was in his usual full unicorn mode then and also pitching.

But he won't need the bonus trick if the Japanese megastar keeps clobbering everything in sight, as he so often does. Ohtani, a four-time MLB MVP winner who has put together consecutive 50-plus homer seasons, has needed just 13 plate appearances during the WBC to tally three extra-base hits, two of which left the yard.

His slugging percentage of 1.333 is comical, resulting in odds that have shifted from +1100 all the way down to +550. The pitching will get more challenging now, but Ohtani remains the ultimate final boss.

🏆 Will Judge rise up again?

Judge opened as the favorite at +750, but his price fell a bit to +1000 after the Americans stunningly lost to Italy, a game that featured the three-time MVP's strikeout as the final out with a runner on base and Team USA trailing by two.

But we've seen his power prevail before, including during this WBC with his two home runs. He's tallied a modest four hits, but that'll all be forgotten quickly if Judge keeps blasting off.

The outfielder is clearly capable of being a frequent flyer, but he does have a spotty history in playoff settings. He's posted a career .236 postseason batting average, though those demons went away during the ALDS this past fall when he slugged .933.

👀 Can Paul Skenes win? Best WBC MVP sleepers

A short tournament and the resulting sprint to the finish invites the opportunity for weirdness, especially if either Japan or Team USA surprisingly get bounced early.

So who's best positioned to take advantage? Plenty of insanely talented players are because there's such a wide gap by the odds between Judge and Ohtani and the rest, with Tatis in third on the board but still far back at +1400. Caminero, for example, offers a quality value play at +1800 if the steamrolling Dominican Republic keeps going, as the MVP is typically chosen from the title-winning side. 

Here's a look at three players who could benefit from chaos, all with long odds at +2500 or higher.

Paul Skenes (+2500)

Paul Skenes was nearly untouchable in his first WBC start while striking out seven batters and allowing just one hit with no earned runs across four innings. Team USA manager Mark DeRosa has tabbed him to start the semifinal game if America advances.

That's in part why his odds remain long, as sparkling during the title game would generate that much more attention. However, Skenes can still do plenty to impress over two appearances, and the semifinal stage also offers a grand stage.

Julio Rodriguez (+3000)

Julio Rodriguez's odds are already up notably after starting at +4000. He's posted a .939 OPS with a home run, and he plays a premium defensive position, putting him in place to make standout plays in the field during the knockout rounds when it matters most.

Roman Anthony (+3500)

As of yesterday, Roman Anthony was getting 5.1% of the tickets at BetMGM while drawing the fifth-most action. He's sizzling while slugging .533 with a 1.007 OPS, and the promising young Red Sox outfielder has reached base in nearly half of his plate appearances. Anthony will need to stay hot to soar past his teammate Judge, but both his price and potential are alluring.

🔮 WBC MVP prediction

Many of the leader MVP contenders play for teams sitting atop the World Baseball Classic odds

Juan Soto to win WBC MVP

Judge and Ohtani are eternally scary, but very little in this tournament right now is more petrifying than the Dominican Republic and its offensive firepower, with Juan Soto at the center.

The Dominicans have outscored their opposition a whopping 41-10, with Soto key to those repeated roastings while clubbing two home runs and slugging .733. Yes, tougher competition is coming for his squad, starting with Korea in the quarterfinals. But if the Dominicans ride their octane-fueled offense to a title and Soto keeps raking, his +1600 betting odds now will look laughable fast.

Best odds: +1600 via BetMGM

❓WBC MVP odds FAQs

Here are some frequently asked questions about the WBC MVP odds.

How is the World Baseball Classic MVP chosen?

A panel of media members and tournament officials vote on the award.

Can a pitcher win the WBC MVP?

Yes, and in fact a pitcher has won often, as three of the previous five WBC MVP awards have been given to a hurler, with Marcus Stroman in 2017 the last to take it as a pure pitcher. Ohtani's pitching efforts in 2023 also contributed to him getting the award.

Has anyone ever won WBC MVP twice?

Daisuke Matsuzaka shined on the mound during the first two editions of the WBC, taking home the MVP award both times (2006 and 2009).

When is the WBC MVP award winner announced?

The WBC MVP winner will be announced shortly after the final game, which takes place March 17 at 8 p.m. ET.