⚾ Twins vs. Red Sox Win Probability: Who Will Win Today’s MLB Game? (May 22)

There could finally be a heartbeat in Boston, with the vital signs of the Red Sox beginning to register as May winds down.

That's why they've favored in the Twins vs. Red Sox win probability from the prediction market apps while sitting at a 58% chance to emerge victorious, a mark no doubt getting a boost from the presence of impressive young hurler Payton Tolle.

The Twins will counter with Connor Prielipp, an equally eye-catching rookie who's posted a 10.4 K/9. It'll be a battle of cornerstone young arms then as Boston looks to keep clawing back.

➡️ Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for the 2026 season.

🏆 Who will win Twins vs. Red Sox? Live MLB win probability

The Red Sox could ever so slowly be starting to come alive after a putrid start to the season. They're fresh off sweeping the Royals on the road, and the team has won three of its last four games.

Boston turning around its fortunes lines up with the club getting the higher win probability for tonight by a notable margin, with the Red Sox sitting at 58% to take the opener over the Twins amid nearly $42,000 in trading volume.

The Red Sox are winning much more through run suppression than scoring of their own. A still scuffling offense ranks second last, and it's the reason for any lingering pessimism tied to the team. Meanwhile, Boston's pitching is showing promise with its eighth-ranked ERA and 10th-ranked opponents' batting average.

A key figure in that pitching uprising has been rookie Payton Tolle, who's on the mound tonight for the Red Sox. He's allowing just a .283 opposing slugging percentage and .502 OPS. Tolle is reaching those heights largely through his nearly unparalleled extension, and a fastball that gets on hitters quickly, resulting in a .091 batting average.

That doesn't set up well for the Twins, who have recorded the 11th-most strikeouts MLB-wide.

My prediction: Red Sox win. Boston hasn't been providing much run support, but Tolle might not need it after giving up just three earned runs across his last three starts (21 innings).

💣 Who will hit a home run in Twins vs. Red Sox?

Byron Buxton sits fifth leaguewide with 15 homers, and he's been on a tear lately with eight extra-base hits over his last seven games, four of which have left the yard.

That's resulted in an other-worldly 1.321 OPS across the past two weeks, and a whole lot of it is coming because he continues to reside among the upper echelon when it comes to barreling a fast-moving projectile. He sits second in barrels per plate appearance, according to Baseball Savant.

Buxton especially excels against heat, with a slugging percentage of .633 against four-seamers. Tolle presents a tough matchup, but if anyone is going to take him deep tonight, it'll be Buxton, as the southpaw throws his heater 47% of the time to right-handed batters.

My prediction: Byron Buxton to hit a home run. A sinker is Tolle's most-used secondary pitch, and Buxton also excels against those while putting up a .541 slugging percentage. For more home run analysis, see the rest of my home run predictions today.

⚾ Will there be a run in the first inning of Twins vs. Red Sox?

We've witnessed a gradual decline in this market, with the probability of a first-inning run falling from 47% to now around 43%. That aligns well with what we should expect whenever the Red Sox are involved.

Boston is the ideal NRFI team due to its perfect combination of decent starting pitching and an inept offense. That's especially true when Tolle is featured, as he's putting up a .191 expected opponents' batting average. Meanwhile, Boston is averaging a mere 2.6 runs over its last 10 games.

That's all contributed to one of the league's better NRFI records, with Boston sitting tied for ninth at 26-23. But the Red Sox are significantly better amid the eternally wonky dimensions of Fenway Park, where they've posted a 15-7 NRFI mark.

For their part, the Twins sit even a touch higher in the NRFI standings, resting in seventh at 28-22.

My prediction: No run in the first inning. Minnesota's Prielipp is also thriving, and his expected batting average allowed is in the 92nd percentile. For more first-inning analysis, see the rest of our best NRFI bets today from our MLB expert Dustin Saracini.

📊 Twins vs. Red Sox win expectancy

Win expectancy based on Kalshi percentages at time of publish.

📺 How to watch Twins vs. Red Sox

• Date: Friday, May 22
• First pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET
• Ballpark: Fenway Park (Boston)
• TV: ESPN
• Streaming: MLB.TV
• Twins starter: Connor Prielipp (1-2, 2.88 ERA)
• Red Sox starter: Payton Tolle (2-2, 2.05 ERA)