Tigers vs. Yankees Prediction, Odds & Expert Picks: MLB Best Bets for Sept. 10
We've dug up some juicy plus-money plays for our Tigers vs. Yankees prediction as the two World Series odds top contenders continue their series tonight from Yankee Stadium starting at 7:05 p.m. ET (Prime Video).
The Tigers (+140) are well-positioned to pull off the upset over New York, which enters as the -164 betting odds favorite. Much of that is tied to their effectiveness against lefties, and that's why we're also daring to fade Carlos Rodon in one of our MLB picks.
⚾ Tigers vs. Yankees prediction
MLB expert picks odds subject to change.
- Moneyline pick: Tigers (+140 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Run line pick: Tigers +1.5 (-105 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Over/Under pick: Over 8 (-115 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
📝 Tigers vs. Yankees preview & best bet
Track the latest MLB scores for line movement and matchup info.
⬆️ Over 8 (-115) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Much of the foundation for this pick is centered around the Tigers' ability to pounce on the otherwise impressive Carlos Rodon, and his frequent dominance is greatly contributing to this lower total. We'll dive into that more below as part of our prop pick. For now, know that Detroit starter Jack Flaherty will begrudgingly play his part in cashing this Over for us, too.
The righty's ERA sat at 4.36 to begin August, and it's been steadily rising since as the veteran gets repeatedly torched. It now rests at a season-worst 4.85 after he's given up four-plus earned runs in four of his past seven outings, with eight against the Kansas City Royals. Flaherty's rock bottom so far this season.
He can still rack up plenty of strikeouts, as shown by Flaherty's K/9, which sits at 10.5, notably better than the hurler's 9.9 last year. But the contact he does allow has come with a deafening sound, as his barrel rate sits in just the 13th percentile, according to Baseball Savant. Worse, he throws his four-seamer 46.8% of the time, and opposing batters are teeing off for a .510 slugging percentage.
If this Tigers vs. Yankees prediction hits, a $10 wager through these -115 odds at Caesars would lead to an $8.70 profit on an implied probability of 53.49%.
💰 Best Tigers vs. Yankees player prop bet
Our MLB player prop odds tool shows the best odds for every market across legal sportsbooks in your area.
⬆️ Carlos Rodon Over 4.5 hits allowed (+121) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Unlike Flaherty, Carlos Rodon has been steady this season while dazzling, and we see that in his 3.12 ERA that sits among the top 15 leaguewide.
But this matchup comes with the makings of a hiccup, as the Tigers have been thriving against lefties, which is surely factoring heavily into projections that show Rodon forecasted to give up 4.75 hits tonight.
Detroit boasts the league's best average against lefties at .271. That's in a special tier, as the Tigers are one of only four teams above .260.
But they're not just slapping the ball around, as Detroit is hitting for power too against southpaws, which will keep the line moving and allow the team's sluggers more opportunities. The club has also built up a .791 OPS when facing a lefty, which again sits far above most of the league. Detroit trails only its opponent tonight in that category, and the Toronto Blue Jays are far back in third at .764.
The odds for this Tigers vs. Yankees player prop are significantly shorter elsewhere, with BetMGM at -105 on the low end of the market. So be sure to pounce on these comparably juicy +121 odds from DraftKings, which would lead to a $12.10 profit on a 45.25% implied probability.
📊 Tigers vs. Yankees odds: Sept. 10
MLB odds update live in real time.
📈 Tigers vs. Yankees betting odds analysis
The Yankees are getting the edge in terms of moneyline action while generating 59% of the attention from bettors. That comes after minimal movement since the opening number, with New York commonly sitting around -165, though a few books are resting at -160.
🔢 Tigers vs. Yankees stats
Season stats courtesy of baseball-reference.com.
| Tigers (83-62) | Statistic (per game) | Yankees (80-64) |
|---|---|---|
| 4.88 | Runs | 5.22 |
| 8.39 | Hits | 8.40 |
| .250 | AVG | .248 |
| .421 | SLG | .453 |
| .782 | OPS | .740 |
| 3.88 | ERA | 3.97 |
| 8.5 | K/9 | 9.0 |
| 3.0 | BB/9 | 3.6 |
| 1.2 | HR/9 | 1.1 |
🚑 Tigers vs. Yankees injuries
📺 Tigers vs. Yankees game info
- When: Wednesday, Sept. 10
- First pitch: 7:05 p.m. ET
- Where: Yankee Stadium (New York)
- How to watch: Prime Video
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❓ Tigers vs. Yankees FAQs
Who is favored to win Tigers vs. Yankees?
The Yankees are favored to beat the Tigers while sitting as moneyline favorites of -164 at the best sports betting sites. The Tigers are getting +140 for the upset.
What is the run line for Tigers vs. Yankees?
The Yankees are the -1.5 favorites while priced at -135 through BetMGM. Meanwhile, the Tigers at +1.5 is getting -150.
What is the Over/Under for Tigers vs. Yankees?
The Over/Under is set at 8 or 8.5, depending on where you're shopping at the best sports betting apps. The Over is juiced to -115, with the Under at -125.
What are the best bets for Tigers vs. Yankees?
My best bets for Tigers vs. Yankees are Detroit to earn the upset (+140), and Carlos Rodon to allow Over 4.5 hits (+121).
When is the Tigers vs. Yankees game?
The second game of this Tigers vs. Yankees series gets underway at 7:05 p.m. ET.
How do baseball odds work?
When betting on MLB, the run line shows how many runs the favorite needs to win by in order to cash the bet. For example, a favorite of -1.5 must win by two or more runs to cover the run line, while an underdog at +1.5 must win outright or lose by one run to cover the run line.
Moneyline odds represent the payout for picking the outright winner (+200 means a $100 bet wins $200, while -200 means a $200 bet wins $100). Over/Unders let you wager on whether the combined total of runs will be higher or lower than the set number.
You can determine the payouts and implied probabilities for any wager - or convert odds to different formats - with our odds converter.
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