Tigers vs. Guardians Prediction, Odds & Expert Picks: MLB Best Bets for Tonight Sept. 23
A scratching and clawing fight to the finish for the AL Central title continues as we dive into our Tigers vs. Guardians prediction.
The Tigers have been free-falling while the Guardians keep surging, resulting in a mere one-game gap atop the division heading into tonight's matchup from Progressive Field at 6:40 p.m. ET. The Tigers are the -150 betting odds favorite to win as we make our MLB picks, largely due to the always daunting presence of Tarik Skubal on the mound.
Our Tigers vs. Guardians best bets believe the Cy Young odds front-runner can silence Cleveland's lineup.
⚾ Tigers vs. Guardians prediction
MLB expert picks odds subject to change.
- Moneyline pick: Tigers (-150 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Run line pick: Tigers -1.5 (+125 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Over/Under pick: Under 6.5 (-102 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
📝 Tigers vs. Guardians preview & best bet
Track the latest MLB scores for line movement and matchup info.
⬇️ Under 6.5 (-102) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Yes, going against the Guardians in any way right now is terrifying. Cleveland just ended its 10-game winning streak, which included a sweep of Detroit. The team has rocketed to contention in its division while winning 20 of its last 26 games.
But as astounding as that run has been, the Guardians have done it primarily through pithing and run prevention. They've scored three or fewer runs 11 times during the aforementioned stretch, and overall, the club sits 27th in runs per game (3.9). The Tigers' hitters have been doing their part lately to keep scores low, too. Detroit has lost six straight while averaging a meager 2.3 runs per outing, contributing to a plummet in its World Series odds.
So then tonight for our Tigers vs. Guardians prediction, we have a limping offense and one that produces sporadically at best, and the hitters involved will be facing a Cy Young shoo-in and a rising young hurler with a 3.06 ERA.
The former is Skubal, who sits third in K/9 leaguewide at 11.1. The latter is Gavin Williams, the right-hander who has put together an impressive season but has really been coming into form during the second half of the campaign while allowing an opponent's batting average of just .189.
If this critical divisional clash turns into the expected pitcher's duel while helping to cash the Under on 6.5 runs, a $10 bet at these -102 odds from BetMGM would lead to a $9.80 profit, with an implied probability of 50.50%.
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💰 Best Tigers vs. Guardians player prop bet
Our MLB player prop odds tool shows the best odds for every market across legal sportsbooks in your area.
⬇️ Tarik Skubal Under 1.5 earned runs allowed (-145) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Tarik Skubal remains one of the few steady elements of a Tigers team that once looked to be the class of not just its division, but among the best in MLB. He needs to be the skid-stopper tonight at the most critical time of the season. And as is often the case with the dominant lefty, the matchup lines up nicely.
The Guardians' offense is among the league's worst against lefties. The team is posting just a .646 OPS against southpaws (27th), a .223 batting average (28th), and slugging .357 (25th). Skubul is far from an ordinary lefty, of course, as we make our Tigers vs. Guardians player prop bet. That shows up in many, many ways, including the defending AL Cy Young winner's ability to induce weak contact while giving up an 86.3 mph average exit velocity that sits in the top 4% leaguewide.
If Skubal manages to stymie the Guardians' offense, a $10 bet at these market-best -145 odds through BetMGM would lead to a $6.90 profit, with an implied probability of 59.18%. Be sure to snatch those odds at BetMGM and avoid DraftKings, which is offering -156.
📊 Tigers vs. Guardians odds: Sept. 23
MLB odds update live in real time.
📈 Tigers vs. Guardians betting odds analysis
There's been moderate moneyline movement so far, with the moneyline at BetMGM shifting from -165 in favor of the Tigers to as short as -150 before going back down to -160. The action is nearly even so far, with the Guaridans receiving a slight majority at 51% while getting +135 odds.
The total has started at the minuscule number of 6.5, largely due to the quality of the starting pitchers involved. It's unlikely we see upward movement soon, either, with action nearly dead even and the Over receiving only a narrow edge at 54%. Still, Over bettors would be wise to lock in their wagers soon in case we see a push toward 7 closer to first pitch.
🔢 Tigers vs. Guardians stats
Season stats courtesy of baseball-reference.com.
| Tigers (85-71) | Statistic (per game) | Guardians (84-72) |
|---|---|---|
| 4.8 | Runs | 3.9 |
| 8.3 | Hits | 7.4 |
| .248 | AVG | .226 |
| .417 | SLG | .373 |
| .734 | OPS | .670 |
| 3.98 | ERA | 3.70 |
| 8.56 | K/9 | 8.52 |
| 3.1 | BB/9 | 3.3 |
| 1.1 | HR/9 | 1.2 |
🚑 Tigers vs. Guardians injury report
📺 Tigers vs. Guardians game info
- When: Tuesday, Sept. 23
- First pitch: 6:40 p.m. ET
- Where: Progressive Field (Cleveland)
- How to watch: Local TV
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❓ Tigers vs. Guardians FAQs
Who is favored to win Tigers vs. Guardians?
The Tigers are the moneyline favorite at -150 through the best sports betting sites. The Guardians are sitting at about +135.
What is the run line for Tigers vs. Guardians?
The Tigers are getting around +125 to cover -1.5 at the best sports getting apps. The Guardians are receiving -149 to cover +1.5.
What is the Over/Under for Tigers vs. Guardians?
The total for this divisional clash is set at a lowly 6.5, with the Over receiving -110 betting odds and the Under at -102.
What are the best bets for Tigers vs. Guardians?
My best bets for Tigers vs. Guardians are the Under on 6.5 runs (-102) and Tarik Skubal allowing Under 1.5 earned runs (-145).
When is the Tigers vs. Guardians game?
First pitch for the Tigers vs. Guardians game is at 6:40 p.m. ET from Progressive Field.
How do baseball odds work?
When betting on MLB, the run line shows how many runs the favorite needs to win by in order to cash the bet. For example, a favorite of -1.5 must win by two or more runs to cover the run line, while an underdog at +1.5 must win outright or lose by one run to cover the run line.
Moneyline odds represent the payout for picking the outright winner (+200 means a $100 bet wins $200, while -200 means a $200 bet wins $100). Over/Unders let you wager on whether the combined total of runs will be higher or lower than the set number.
You can determine the payouts and implied probabilities for any wager - or convert odds to different formats - with our odds converter.
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