⚾ Rays vs. Dodgers Win Probability: Who Will Win Today’s MLB Game? (June 16)
The market projects a 57% chance that Los Angeles wins today, but I'll show why Tampa Bay (43%) is underrated as I break down the Rays vs. Dodgers win probability.
RHP Drew Rasmussen gets the start for Tampa Bay in the second game of this three-game series, while LHP Justin Wrobleski takes the mound for L.A. The Rays will be looking for revenge after the Dodgers came back from a 3-0 deficit in Monday’s series opener, and we’re looking to find the best value available across prediction market apps today.
First pitch from Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles is set for 10:10 p.m. ET (ESPN Unlimited, MLB.TV).
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🏆 Who will win Rays vs. Dodgers? Live MLB win probability
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With over $140,000 in volume already traded in this market, the Dodgers have a 57% win probability (after opening at 54% on Sunday). This win expectancy is higher than I would project, given that Rasmussen has allowed a total of zero runs over his last 14 innings of work (two starts). If you'd like to buy Yes contracts on the Dodgers to win, you can instantly get over $340,000 filled.
The Rays are 41–28 on the season and have lost three of their last four games after sweeping the Red Sox at home from June 8–10. Outfielder Ryan Vilade (2-for-4, 2 RBIs) hit a two-run home run in the first inning of Monday’s series opener, and shortstop Taylor Walls (0-for-3, 1 RBI) scored Tampa Bay’s only other run on a sacrifice bunt in the second to extend the lead to 3–0.
The Dodgers immediately tied the game in the bottom half of the inning, with Kyle Tucker (2-for-4, 3 RBIs) hitting a three-run home run off RHP Nick Martinez. No runs were scored over the ensuing 4½ innings until pinch-hitter Miguel Rojas (1-for-1, 1 RBI) hit a solo shot in the seventh.
L.A. improved to 46–27 on the season and has alternated wins and losses over its last nine games.
My prediction: Rays win (43¢). While the Dodgers are obviously the better team - I mean, they're favored to win the World Series - they've been too inconsistent lately, going just 4–4 over their last eight games. Rasmussen, meanwhile, hasn't struggled against Shohei Ohtani or Mookie Betts, holding the two Dodgers stars to a combined 0-for-10 with five K's in their career meetings.
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💣 Who will hit a home run in Rays vs. Dodgers?
| Hitter | Home run probability | Yes price |
|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Aranda | 15% | 15¢ |
| Junior Caminero | 22% | 24¢ |
| Freddie Freeman | 15% | 15¢ |
| Kyle Tucker | 13% | 13¢ |
| Mookie Betts | 15% | 15¢ |
| Shohei Ohtani | 25% | 25¢ |
Over $12,000 of volume has been traded in the home run market as of the time of publication. Ohtani - surprise, surprise - is the most likely player to homer today, with a 25% probability. He’s followed by Junior Caminero (22%), along with Jonathan Aranda, Freddie Freeman, and Betts, who are all at 15%.
With Rasmussen not allowing a home run in either of his last two games, I’m surprised that Ohtani’s probability of homering is so high. The Dodgers’ two-way star is 0-for-5 against Rasmussen in his career with four K's and a .167 OBP. While I’m not buying any No contracts on Ohtani, there is likely value on them at 77¢.
My prediction: Junior Caminero to hit a home run (24¢). Caminero faces left-hander Wrobleski today, and the Rays slugger is slashing .288/.422/.479 against southpaws this season. It’s tough to find value on a Dodgers player to homer against Rasmussen, so I would exclusively look toward Rays players if buying Yes contracts on a home run hitter. For more home run analysis, see the rest of our home run predictions today from our MLB expert Sean Tomlinson.
⚾ Will there be a run in the first inning of Rays vs. Dodgers?
The market is projecting a 51% chance of a run in the first inning, with over $3,500 in volume already traded. If you'd like to buy the Yes (aka the YRFI) at 51¢, you can get over $1,200 filled immediately, while if you'd like to buy the No (or the NRFI) at 50¢, you can get over $2,200 filled on the spot.
Rasmussen has not allowed a first-inning run in either of his last two starts. However, he did give up a first-inning grand slam against the Angels in St. Petersburg on May 30. While Wrobleski has allowed four or more earned runs in three of his last six starts, he has been solid early lately. He’s allowed zero first-inning runs in each of his last three starts, and the NRFI has cashed in each of his last two.
My prediction: No run in the first inning (50¢). If you're buying Yes contracts for a first-inning run, you're pretty much banking on the Dodgers to score, as they rank first in batting average (.262) and second in home runs (101) in MLB. But the market is undervaluing how dominant Rasmussen has been lately (and it doesn't hurt that he hasn’t allowed a career hit to Ohtani or Betts, either). For more first-inning analysis, see the rest of our best NRFIs today from our MLB expert Dustin Saracini.
📊 Rays vs. Dodgers win expectancy
Win expectancy based on Kalshi percentages at time of publish.
| Team | Win expectancy | Opened | Movement |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rays | 43% | 46% | ↓ 3% |
| Dodgers | 57% | 54% | ↑ 3% |
📺 How to watch Rays vs. Dodgers
- Date: Tuesday, June 16
- First pitch: 10:10 p.m. ET
- Ballpark: Dodger Stadium (Los Angeles)
- Streaming: ESPN Unlimited, MLB.TV
- Rays starter: Drew Rasmussen (6-2, 2.71 ERA)
- Dodgers starter: Justin Wrobleski (7-2, 2.95 ERA)
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