⚾ Phillies vs. Braves Prediction & Picks: MLB Odds for Friday, April 24

Two teams heading in opposite directions meet in the first game of a three-game set as the Atlanta Braves look to expand their early 9.5-game lead in the National League East over the Philadelphia Phillies. Tonight’s pitching matchup is the same as the one from last Sunday night as Andrew Painter opposes Grant Holmes. Atlanta won that game 4-2, and is a -145 betting favorite with first pitch from Truist Park scheduled for 7:15 p.m. ET (Apple TV).

My Phillies vs. Braves prediction goes against these two teams' recent trends and backs the road underdogs to jump out to an early lead. I also expect Ozzie Albies to step up in the heart of the Atlanta order if Michael Harris II is to miss any time with the injury he suffered yesterday. The last of my MLB picks backs Bryce Harper to improve upon his elite numbers at Truist Park.

⚾ Phillies vs. Braves picks & odds today

See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.

Total wagered: 2.25 units | Max profit: 4.32 units

🏆 Who will win Phillies vs. Braves?

The Phillies are amid a nine-game losing streak, tied for their longest losing skid since September 2018. They haven’t lost 10 straight since 1999, and I’m siding with history that they will end their slump before the streak reaches double digits.

Score prediction: Phillies 5, Braves 4

💰 Phillies vs. Braves prediction & best bet

Phillies first five innings ML (+110)

Entering its series finale with the Cubs, Philadelphia was 3-for-36 (.083) with runners in scoring position and a 6.52 team ERA during its eight-game losing streak. But one could argue its best chance to win a game during that time was when Painter and Holmes faced off on Sunday night, and the Phillies were three outs away from leading after five innings.

Painter labored through four innings in that start (throwing 84 pitches), but he and five Phillies relievers combined to hold Atlanta’s first three batters to one hit in 13 at-bats.

🔥 Best Phillies vs. Braves player prop bet

Ozzie Albies Over 0.5 RBIs (+201)

Atlanta teammate Michael Harris II went 3-for-4 with two RBIs yesterday, running his RBI streak to five games while going 10-for-19 in that span. But he left the game with left quad tightness, which should leave the bulk of RBI opportunities in the middle of the Braves lineup to Ozzie Albies.

Albies enters amid a six-game hitting streak, and has hit safely in eight of nine. He had an extra-base hit in two of the three games in the previous series against the Phillies, and the game Painter started was one of five that he has driven in at least one run among the previous eight.

Albies is just one year removed from a 1.378 OPS in 2024 against the Phillies, and he should have plenty of run-producing chances in the heart of a lineup that ranks in the top two in wOBA, slugging, and wRC+. 

💣 Phillies vs. Braves home run prediction

Bryce Harper to hit a home run (+483)

Grant Holmes has allowed a home run in three of five starts, and left-handed batters have gone yard once in every 22 at-bats against him compared to righties hitting one home run in 51 at-bats.

Bryce Harper has hit all five of his home runs this month, and has only gone more than five games without a homer once. He is on pace for a career-worst 40.3% hard-hit percentage, but he is elevating balls at a career-high 31.9% fly ball rate. 

Harper’s 16 home runs at Truist Park are tied for his most at any visiting ballpark, and he has done so in just 249 plate appearances compared to his 16 homers in 425 plate appearance at loanDepot park. 

🚀 Phillies vs. Braves same-game parlay

Oftentimes I will swap my home run pick with another player prop wager as the third leg of a same-game parlay. But I am happy to leave Harper hitting a home run as part of this SGP, as it could directly help Philadelphia's case of leading early, while overcoming Albies driving in a run for the Braves.

💵 My betting record for MLB picks

All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 26.

💡 How I'm betting Phillies vs. Braves: MLB strategy

Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.

As usual I am making my game prediction and top player prop wager one-unit plays, while limiting my home run prop pick to just 0.25 units. I'm more comfortable backing Philadelphia to lead after five innings instead of backing it to win outright (the best odds are +125 at bet365), as the Phillies bullpen ranks 20th in ERA and 16th in HR/9 rate. And since I like Albies to drive in a run while also expecting Harper to homer, I wouldn't put anyone off sprinkling some of their bankroll on the Over.

📊 Live Phillies vs. Braves odds

The Braves are anywhere from -142 betting favorites at FanDuel to -150 at bet365. Not surprisingly, the early wagers are 4/1 in favor of the Braves at DraftKings, and I'd expect the line to move in Atlanta's favor given that the Braves have won four straight meetings (all by two or more runs) dating back to last season.

The market is aligned with an O/U of 9 runs, though only three of the top sports betting sites have the Under juiced to -115 (carrying a 53.49% implied probability). Just when I would've predicted the line possibility shortening to 8.5 as these two teams played a 4-2 game with the same pitchers on the mound just last week, the Over is actually getting more of the early betting support (55/45).

📈 Phillies vs. Braves betting trends

🚑 Phillies vs. Braves injuries

📺 How to watch Phillies vs. Braves

• Date: Friday, April 24
• First pitch: 7:15 p.m. ET
• Ballpark: Truist Park (Atlanta)
• Streaming: Apple TV
• Phillies starter: Andrew Painter (1-1, 4.42 ERA)
• Braves starter: Grant Holmes (1-1, 3.42 ERA)