Best MLB Player Props Today Sunday, Oct. 5: Best Bets for Divisional Series

Will the fact that the Over cashed in three of the four Game 1 matchups yesterday impact the analysis of my best MLB player props today, with both visiting AL teams sending their aces to the mound?

My MLB picks hit on plays of +105 and +120 odds yesterday, and now I'm backing AL Cy Young Award favorite Tarik Skubal to increase the Detroit Tigers’ World Series odds even more after yesterday’s upset win in Game 1.

⚾ Best MLB player props today

MLB player prop bets for Wild Card Series; odds subject to change.

• Max Fried Under 4.5 strikeouts (+128 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI (-110 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐
• Tarik Skubal to record the win (+137 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
• Cal Raleigh Under 0.5 hits (+100 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best MLB player props today: Oct. 5

Our MLB player prop odds tool shows the best odds for every market across legal sportsbooks in your area.

⬇️ Max Fried Under 4.5 strikeouts (+128) ⭐⭐⭐

Before yesterday’s 10-1 shellacking, the Blue Jays had won six of their seven home games against the Yankees while owning a plus-19 run differential.

The fact that the Yankees' bullpen played 5 ⅓ innings in Game 1 suggests Max Fried could be given a longer leash, but he still has a low ceiling for strikeouts, given how often Toronto puts the ball in play.

The Blue Jays’ 17.8% strikeout rate was the lowest in the majors and the sixth-lowest by a ballclub since 2015. And their lineup has the advantage of seeing Fried four times this season, tagging him for a 4.07 ERA and striking out just 12 times in 24 ⅓ innings despite batting just .215 as a team.

DraftKings offers a 62.69% implied probability at an inflated -168 price for over 5.5 strikeouts. However, I am opting for the Under at BetMGM, where a $10 winning wager at +128 odds would return $12.80 in profit.

⬆️ Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over hits + runs + RBI (-110) ⭐⭐⭐

Not only did Toronto outscore New York by 19 runs in seven regular-season meetings at home, but it batted .291 as a team while belting 10 home runs.

I expect Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to be at the heart of what could be another offensive barrage, given how successful he was against southpaws this season.

Among Blue Jays with a minimum of 45 at-bats against left-handed pitchers, Guerrero led the team with a .428 on-base percentage and .946 OPS. He was a thorn in the Yankees’ side all season, slashing .373/.439/.569 while going over this projected total in eight of the final 10 regular-season games against them.

BetMGM is the only one of the best sports betting sites offering the standard -110 juice, while Guerrero’s implied probability is as high as 53.92%. If Guerrero records some combination of two-plus hits, runs, and RBI, a winning $10 wager at -110 odds would net $9.09 in profits.

🔥 Tarik Skubal to record the win (+137) ⭐⭐⭐

Entering this series, the Tigers had a 22-10 record in Skubal’s 32 starts, with the southpaw pitching to a 2.17 ERA over 203 innings.

Meanwhile, the team went just 67-66 in the rest of the rotation’s starts, with the other starters combining for a 4.43 ERA over 626 innings. Skubal tied a career-high with 14 strikeouts in his wild-card series start, and it also tied for the most in Detroit postseason history.

That made him just the seventh pitcher in the wild-card era (since 1995) with 14 or more strikeouts in a postseason game, and his 34 strikeouts through his first four career postseason starts are tied for the fourth-most in MLB history. 

Instead of backing the Over on Skubal’s O/U 8.5 strikeout prop that is juiced as high as -148 and carries a near 60% implied probability, I am opting for better value for him to record the win.

Through DraftKings’ +137 odds, a $10 wager would net $13.70 if Skubal records his second victory in as many postseason starts this season.

⬇️ Cal Raleigh Under 0.5 hits (+100) ⭐⭐⭐

Left-hander Skubal is going to force Mariners slugger Cal Raleigh to hit from the right side today, and that makes this one of my best MLB player props today, given his splits as a switch-hitter.

Raleigh’s batting average and slugging percentage were 50 and 134 points lower, respectively, as a right-handed hitter.

Raleigh is 2-for-9 with one home run in his career off Skubal, but postseason Skubal is a different animal. Skubal was one of five pitchers to rank in the 80th percentile or higher in hard-hit rate and whiff percentage in the regular season. 

At this 50/50 implied probability, a $10 winning wager would return the same amount in profits if Raleigh finishes the game without a hit.

Most popular MLB prop bets today

Here are the most popular MLB prop bets today at BetMGM, based on ticket count:

1. Aaron Judge to hit a home run +225
2. George Springer to hit a home run +550
3. Trey Yesavage over 4.5 strikeouts -105 
4. Ben Rice to hit a home run +500
5. Tarik Skubal over 8.5 strikeouts -130