Mets vs. Phillies Prediction, Odds & Expert Picks: MLB Best Bets for Sept. 8

We expect New York to win in our Mets vs. Phillies prediction, along with Juan Soto scoring.

Mike Spector

Last Updated: September 8, 2025 9:58 AM EDT • 6 minute read

Pictured: New York Mets outfielder Juan Soto receives congratulations as we look at our Mets vs. Phillies prediction. Photo by Rick Osentoski / Imagn.

Seven games separate these top two teams in the NL East as the New York Mets try to track down the first-place Philadelphia Phillies, a game that I break down with my Mets vs. Phillies prediction.

The Mets are -120 betting favorites at the best MLB betting sites as we delve into our MLB picks. First pitch from Citizens Bank Park is set for 6:45 p.m. ET (MLBN).

I'm doubling down on my prediction that New York will win this series opener while backing one of its sluggers who has been getting on base at an elite clip since mid-August.

⚾ Mets vs. Phillies prediction

MLB odds subject to change

Moneyline pick: Mets (-118 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Run line pick: Mets -1.5 (+145 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐
Over/Under pick: Over 8.5 (-115 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐

📝 Mets vs. Phillies preview & best bet

Track the latest MLB scores for line movement and matchup info.

🗽 Mets ML (-118) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Philadelphia hasn't missed a beat since losing ace Zack Wheeler for the rest of the season. The World Series odds contenders have won or split six of the club's last seven series, but the one series loss was when New York swept the Phillies at Citi Field two weeks ago. New York’s head-to-head dominance after winning seven of the nine matchups so far is why I'm backing it with my Mets vs. Phillies best bet.

The Mets outscored the Phillies by 17 runs in that three-game sweep. Aaron Nola starts for Philadelphia tonight, and he doesn't inspire much confidence after allowing five runs before recording an out in his last start against the Milwaukee Brewers.

Though the Phillies had won Nola’s first three starts after he came back from a three-month IL stint, those victories came against the two worst teams in the division. His offense also provided him with an average of 12 runs of support per game in that span.

Runs should be harder to come by when facing Mets rookie Nolan McLean, as the hurler shut the Phillies out over eight innings for one of his four wins during the righty's first four starts.

I'm squeezing every bit of value out of New York’s 54.13% implied probability and -118 odds at BetMGM, as its moneyline odds are as high as -121 at the other best sports betting sites. A $10 winning wager would net $8.47 in profit.

💰 Best Mets vs. Phillies player prop bet

Our MLB player prop odds tool shows the best odds for every market across legal sportsbooks in your area.

⬆️ Juan Soto Over 0.5 runs (-150) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Mets slugger Juan Soto entered Sunday amid a 15-game on-base streak, which he extended with a ninth-inning home run. In that 15-game span, he batted .396 with six home runs, 20 RBI, and a 1.352 OPS. That presents great value for him to score a run for a ninth time in the last 11 games as my best Mets vs. Phillies player prop bet.

Soto has a great chance to plate himself, as three of his 10 career hits against Aaron Nola have been home runs.

Soto’s 22.73% implied probability at +340 home run odds are appealing. But I'm backing this wager with five stars of confidence, especially since Soto bats in front of Pete Alonso, who has tallied six home runs while batting .327 in 55 career at-bats against the Phillies righty.

The slugger leads the majors with 34 runs scored since Aug. 4, making his 60% implied probability on the high end of the market to cross the plate again an absolute steal. A $10 winning wager would net $6.67 in profit through FanDuel's -150 odds.

Elsewhere in fireworks from the Mets' lineup, our Gabe Henderson is eyeing Pete Alonso to go deep in his best home run predictions today.

📊 Mets vs. Phillies odds: Sept. 8

MLB odds update live in real time.

📈 Mets vs. Phillies betting odds analysis

The Mets pivoted from southpaw Sean Manaea to McLean as their starting pitcher for today, and that decision switched the line completely. New York had opened as a -105 moneyline underdog, but it's now the -120 betting favorite. The move also slightly impacted the total, lowering it from 9 to 8.5 at several of the best sports betting apps.

🔢 Mets vs. Phillies stats

Season stats courtesy of baseball-reference.com.

Mets (76-67)	Statistic (per game)	Phillies (83-60)
4.82	Runs	4.78
8.48	Hits	8.81
.252	AVG	.258
.431	SLG	.425
.761	OPS	.753
3.85	ERA	3.77
8.75	K/9	9.23
3.52	BB/9	2.71
0.90	HR/9	1.06

🚑 Mets vs. Phillies injuries

📺 Mets vs. Phillies game info

When: Monday, Sept. 8
First pitch: 6:45 p.m. ET
Where: Citizens Bank Park (Philadelphia)
How to watch: MLBN

💡 Expert MLB predictions today

❓ Mets vs. Phillies FAQs

Who is favored to win Mets vs. Phillies?

The Mets are the -120 betting favorite to beat the Phillies at home on Monday.

What is the run line for Mets vs. Phillies?

New York’s -1.5 odds range from +135 to +145, while Philadelphia’s +1.5 odds are at -180 on the high end of the market.

What is the Over/Under for Mets vs. Phillies?

The shops offering the best sportsbook promos have the O/U set between 8.5 and 9 runs, with the Over on the 8.5 lines juiced to -115, and the Under at 9 juiced to -125.

What are the best bets for Mets vs. Phillies?

My Mets vs. Phillies best bets back New York to win, with Juan Soto scoring a run.

When is the Mets vs. Phillies game?

The Mets vs. Phillies first pitch is set for 6:45 p.m. ET tonight, airing on MLBN.

How do baseball odds work?

When betting on MLB, the run line shows how many runs the favorite needs to win by in order to cash the bet. For example, a favorite of -1.5 must win by two or more runs to cover the run line, while an underdog at +1.5 must win outright or lose by one run to cover the run line.

Moneyline odds represent the payout for picking the outright winner (+200 means a $100 bet wins $200, while -200 means a $200 bet wins $100). Over/Unders let you wager on whether the combined total of runs will be higher or lower than the set number.

You can determine the payouts and implied probabilities for any wager - or convert odds to different formats - with our odds converter.

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Written by:
Mike Spector

Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike leans on his NFL experience and always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”

Mets vs. Phillies Prediction, Odds & Expert Picks: MLB Best Bets for Sept. 9