Mets vs. Padres Prediction, Odds & Best Bets: Does Darvish Get Demolished Again?

Can Clay Holmes get New York back on track after dropping back-to-back games in San Diego?

Gabe Henderson

Last Updated: July 30, 2025 12:57 PM EDT • 4 minute read

Mets vs. Padres Prediction, Odds & Best Bets: Wednesday, July 30 — Pictured: New York Mets third baseman Ronny Mauricio (10) is congratulated by Brandon Nimmo (9) as we make our Mets vs. Padres prediction. Photo by Denis Poroy via Imagn Images.

San Diego has a sweep of the NL East leaders in its sight, but my Mets vs. Padres prediction expects New York to bounce back in a big way before heading home for the weekend.

The best sports betting sites view this game as a pick 'em, with both the Mets and Padres receiving -108 moneyline odds. First pitch from Petco Park in San Diego is set for 4:10 p.m. ET (MLB Network).

My Mets vs. Padres best bets believe New York will overcome Clay Holmes' lack of flair and pick up an important victory to close out its West Coast road trip.

Mets vs. Padres prediction: Mets to win (-108 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
Best Mets vs. Padres player props: Clay Holmes Under 3.5 strikeouts (-120 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐

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✅ Mets vs. Padres prediction: Mets to win (-108 via DraftKings)

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My Mets vs. Padres prediction favored the hosts in the first two games of the series because of the visitors' abysmal road record. New York dropped to 25-30 away from home with Tuesday's loss, but my Mets vs. Padres best bet expects the visitors to improve upon that record in this afternoon's contest.

The Mets have only been swept in three series all season, home and away, so trends tell us the odds are stacked against San Diego.

The Padres are also giving the starting nod to Yu Darvish, who has struggled mightily since making his season debut earlier this month. The veteran right-hander has a nearly unrecognizable 9.18 ERA through four starts. The Cardinals, Diamondbacks, Nationals, and Phillies have combined to score 17 runs across 16.2 innings from Darvish.

Dustin Saracini is fading Darvish, as well, as a part of his best strikeout props today.

A matchup against the 38-year-old could be exactly what the doctor ordered for New York, which put up just one run in Tuesday's loss. I'm expecting the Mets to tee off Darvish, as other National League teams have done so far this season. A $10 wager on the visitors returns $9.26 if New York avoids the sweep.

💰 Best Mets vs. Padres player props

✅ Best Mets vs. Padres player prop: Clay Holmes Under 3.5 strikeouts (-120 via FanDuel)

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Clay Holmes' transition to a starting role has gone swimmingly in his new threads. While he's posted some impressive statistics - led by a 3.40 ERA - his strikeout numbers haven't jumped off the page.

Holmes has gone Under 3.5 punchouts in his last three games and at a 70% clip in his starts dating back to June 1. San Diego also owns the third-best strikeout numbers in the league. Padres hitters are being sat down 7.03 times per game - only Toronto (6.65) and Kansas City (6.82) boast better numbers.

My best Mets vs. Padres player prop anticipates Holmes having another solid outing against San Diego, but without a high strikeout total. FanDuel offers the best odds (-120) among the best sports betting apps.

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Betting odds represent the probability of a specific outcome and determine how much money you can win on a bet. There are three main formats: American odds, Decimal odds, and Fractional odds. In the U.S., American odds are most common.

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The run line in baseball is a form of point spread betting unique to MLB. It typically sets a standard spread of 1.5 runs, meaning the favored team must win by at least two runs to cover the run line, while the underdog can lose by one run or win outright to cover.

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Written by:
Gabe Henderson

Gabe Henderson is a sports betting writer from Houston, Texas. He graduated from Louisiana State University in 2022 with a bachelor's degree in Mass Communication. Gabe developed an interest in sports betting while in college due to its legalization in Louisiana. He turned his passion into a career shortly after, joining The Advocate/NOLA.com as a Sports Betting Content Coordinator, where he spent two years. Gabe wore many hats before graduating as he led FanSided's coverage of Chelsea FC as a Site Expert with "The Pride of London." He was also the Editor-in-Chief of the LSU Gumbo Yearbook for two years. Gabe became a part of the SportsbookReview.com team in late 2024. He brings with him an extensive knowledge of many sports, including — but not limited to — NFL, NCAA, MLB, NBA, soccer, and UFC.