Mets vs. Padres Prediction, Odds & Best Bets: San Diego Adds to Win Streak

Last Updated: July 28, 2025 5:25 PM EDT • 4 minute read X Social Google News Link

Two of the National League's top playoff contenders clash tonight, and my Mets vs. Padres prediction expects the hosts to add to their current winning streak on their homecoming.
First pitch from Petco Park in San Diego is set for 9:40 p.m. ET (MLB Network). The Padres are -130 betting favorites at the best sports betting sites, with a total set at O/U 8 runs.
My Mets vs. Padres best bets highlight Luis Arraez as a key offensive player who could spark San Diego's offense en route to a third straight victory.
- Mets vs. Padres prediction: Padres to win (-130 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
- Best Mets vs. Padres player props: Luis Arraez Over 1.5 hits (+175 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
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💰 Mets vs. Padres prediction & best bet
✅ Mets vs. Padres prediction: Padres to win (-130 via FanDuel)
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The Padres have played .500 baseball since the All-Star break, so why am I backing them against one of the sport's hottest squads? Mike Shildt's men return home for their first game in two weeks, which plays a huge part in my Mets vs. Padres prediction.
San Diego is superb at Petco Park. Only two teams - the Toronto Blue Jays and Mets - have a better home record this season. The Padres are 31-18 when playing in the East Village, including wins in three of their last four. While Dylan Cease is slumping (4.59 ERA), his home splits are much better (3.48 ERA).
Meanwhile, New York has the sixth-worst record in the National League on the road. The Mets' 25-28 clip away from Citi Field includes their recent three-game sweep in San Francisco, which truly puts their struggles into perspective. The likelihood that New York suddenly becomes a world-beater on the road is slim.
My Mets vs. Padres best bet reflects that reality as I back the betting favorites at the best sports betting apps with three-star confidence. A $10 wager on San Diego moneyline profits $7.69, and the hosts' -130 odds imply a 56.52% probability of winning.
💰 Best Mets vs. Padres player props
✅ Best Mets vs. Padres player prop: Luis Arraez Over 1.5 hits (+175 via BetMGM)
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My Mets vs. Padres player props dive headfirst into the Luis Arraez pool for a second time in four days. Arraez is hitting .667 (6-for-9) in his career against New York's starter tonight, Frankie Montas.
Given Montas has gone at least five innings in each of his last three starts, we expect the red-hot infielder to get at least two at-bats against the right-hander. Arraez has gone Over this total at a 50% clip over his last 10 appearances, including two multi-hit games in his last four outings.
Despite his scorching form, betting on Arraez to go Over 1.5 hits pays out $17.50 on a $10 winning wager. BetMGM's +175 odds are significantly better than our other best sportsbooks, especially DraftKings, which prices the prop at +150.
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❓MLB betting FAQs
How do betting odds work?
Betting odds represent the probability of a specific outcome and determine how much money you can win on a bet. There are three main formats: American odds, Decimal odds, and Fractional odds. In the U.S., American odds are most common.
What is the run line in baseball?
The run line in baseball is a form of point spread betting unique to MLB. It typically sets a standard spread of 1.5 runs, meaning the favored team must win by at least two runs to cover the run line, while the underdog can lose by one run or win outright to cover.
What does moneyline mean in betting?
The moneyline in betting refers to a wager on which team or player will win the game outright, with no point spread involved. It’s the most straightforward type of sports bet - just pick the winner.
💵 Best MLB betting sites
Want to bet on Mets vs. Padres? Check out the best MLB betting sites and best sportsbook promos for today's MLB games:
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