Mets vs. Cubs Prediction, Odds & Expert Picks: MLB Best Bets for Tonight Sept. 24
My Mets vs. Cubs prediction is betting on the offenses in a game that matters to the playoff race, with New York holding just a one-game lead for the final NL wild-card spot.
First pitch is set for 8:05 p.m. ET at Wrigley Field in Chicago (ESPN). New York earned a thrilling 9-7 win over Chicago in Tuesday’s opener, but the Cubs are the -130 favorite today.
I'm backing the Over instead as part of my MLB picks for this matchup.
Our expert Mike Spector also has Mets star Francisco Lindor as his featured pick in his best home run predictions today.
⚾ Mets vs. Cubs prediction
MLB odds subject to change.
- Moneyline pick: Cubs (-122 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
- Run line pick: Cubs -1.5 (+180 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐
- Over/Under pick: Over 7 (-115 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐
📝 Mets vs. Cubs preview & best bet
Track the latest MLB scores for line movement and matchup info.
⬆️ Over 7 (-115) ⭐⭐⭐
After 16 runs were scored last night, I expect plenty of offense on Wednesday to clear this Over. This ticket costs as much as -120 at Caesars, but BetMGM’s -115 bargain leads to a profit of $8.70 on a $10 wager.
Both teams used a lot of pitchers in yesterday’s high-scoring affair. New York called on six relievers after starter David Peterson was pulled following 1 1/3 innings, which included closer Edwin Diaz recording the final six outs. The Cubs also used six relievers after Cade Horton lasted three frames.
Ballpark Pal’s model projects 8.1 total runs on Wednesday, but I think that feels a touch low based on the usage from Tuesday. I’d play this Mets vs. Cubs prediction up to 7.5, where I’d take the Over at -115 or better.
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💰 Best Mets vs. Cubs player prop bet
Our MLB player prop odds tool shows the best odds for every market across legal sportsbooks in your area.
⬆️ Pete Alonso Over 1.5 hits, runs, and RBI (+105) ⭐⭐⭐
It’s easy to count on Pete Alonso in a big game where I expect there to be enough offense to support the Over. Alonso came through with one hit, one run, and one RBI in Tuesday’s win over the Cubs.
Alonso has cleared this prop in eight of his last nine games, which is why this ticket costs as much as -105 in the market. DraftKings is the only shop offering a plus-money price, allowing us to cash $10.50 on a $10 bet for this Mets vs. Cubs player prop.
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📊 Mets vs. Cubs odds: Sept. 24
MLB odds below update in real time:
📈 Mets vs. Cubs betting odds analysis
The Cubs began as a -125 favorite to defeat the Mets, but that line has moved in Chicago's direction due to 60% of the wagers coming in on the home side. I expect Chicago to close around -130 to win this game, but this is a coin flip after last night’s wild contest.
The total opened at 7, which will move up after 74% of the bets have been on the Over.
🔢 Mets vs. Cubs stats
Season stats courtesy of baseball-reference.com.
| Mets (81-76) | Statistic (per game) | Cubs (88-69) |
|---|---|---|
| 4.76 | Runs | 4.82 |
| 8.4 | Hits | 8.4 |
| .251 | AVG | .249 |
| .430 | SLG | .425 |
| .757 | OPS | .745 |
| 3.82 | ERA | 4.00 |
| 7.9 | K/9 | 8.7 |
| 2.6 | BB/9 | 3.5 |
| 1.3 | HR/9 | 0.9 |
📺 Mets vs. Cubs game info
- When: Wednesday, Sept. 24
- First pitch: 8:05 p.m. ET
- Where: Wrigley Field (Chicago)
- How to watch: ESPN
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❓ Mets vs. Cubs FAQs
Who is favored to win Mets vs. Cubs?
The Cubs are the -130 favorite to defeat the Mets, which gives them an implied probability of 56.52%.
What is the run line for Mets vs. Cubs?
Chicago is a 1.5 run line favorite against New York on Wednesday.
What is the Over/Under for Mets vs. Cubs?
The total for Wednesday’s Mets-Cubs matchup is 7.
What are the best bets for Mets vs. Cubs?
I like the Over (7) and Pete Alonso Over 1.5 hits, runs, and RBI (+105) as my best bets for Mets vs. Cubs.
When is the Mets vs. Cubs game?
First pitch for Mets vs. Cubs is 8:05 p.m. ET on Wednesday on ESPN.
How do baseball odds work?
When betting on MLB, the run line shows how many runs the favorite needs to win by in order to cash the bet. For example, a favorite of -1.5 must win by two or more runs to cover the run line, while an underdog at +1.5 must win outright or lose by one run to cover the run line.
Moneyline odds represent the payout for picking the outright winner (+200 means a $100 bet wins $200, while -200 means a $200 bet wins $100). Over/Unders let you wager on whether the combined total of runs will be higher or lower than the set number.
You can determine the payouts and implied probabilities for any wager - or convert odds to different formats - with our odds converter.
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