Mets vs. Braves Prediction, Odds & Best Bets: Soto to Continue Run-Scoring Spree
The New York Mets have used two dominant offensive efforts to outscore the Atlanta Braves 21-9 thus far in this series, and my Mets vs. Braves prediction expects New York to finish the three-game road sweep this afternoon.
The Mets are -130 moneyline favorites at our best sports betting sites. First pitch from Truist Park is set for 1:35 p.m. ET (MLBN).
Since we expect another solid offensive performance from New York in a win, I double down on my Mets vs. Braves best bets while backing a New York slugger who is on an impressive run-scoring streak.
⚾ Mets vs. Braves prediction & odds
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vs. Braves prediction: Mets to win (-130 via BetMGM)
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New York has clinched its first road series win in its last four, and started the momentum early in the series opener when it tied a season-high with 21 hits. Five players contributed three of more hits, the first time the franchise has done that in seven years, and I am backing it to build off that with my Mets vs. Braves prediction.
The 21 hits the Braves allowed were their most since August 2019, which also came in a loss to New York. I do not have confidence in Bryce Elder to pitch much better, as he ranks in the 18th percentile in hard-hit rate and the 11th percentile or worse in xBA and xERA.
Meanwhile, Mets southpaw David Peterson has been New York’s most reliable starter from a length perspective. On Friday, rookie Nolan McLean was the first Mets pitcher other than Peterson to go six innings in a start since June 7.
Atlanta may be .500 against left-handed starting pitchers and 13 games under .500 against righties, but this remains my Mets vs. Braves best bet.
BetMGM is one of the only top sports betting sites where one can back New York at -130 odds, as its moneyline is juiced as high as -137 (implying a 57.81% win probability) at competing shops.
📊 Live Mets vs. Braves odds: Sunday, 1:35 p.m. ET
💰 Best Mets vs. Braves player prop
✅ Best Mets vs. Braves player prop: Juan Soto Over 0.5 runs (-141 via Caesars)
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On Friday, Juan Soto became the second player in franchise history with 100-plus walks in a season. He also clinched his sixth career season with 25 or more home runs and 100-plus walks, the most by any player in MLB history through his age-26 season or younger.
Soto’s propensity for getting on base with the potential of plating himself with a long ball is why I am backing him with my best Mets vs. Braves player props.
Soto has scored at least one run in 12 of his last 15 games, and his five games with two-plus runs scored in that span make his +350 odds for another multi-run game appealing.
These -141 betting odds (compared to the -150 odds on the high end of the market) are more than justified, especially since Soto scored twice without recording a hit yesterday. A $10 winning wager would net $7.09 in profits.
🤑 Mets vs. Braves betting insights
Let's dive into who the public is backing tonight when Bryce Elder takes the hill against David Peterson, courtesy of BetMGM.
| Teams | Opening ML | Current ML | % Bets | % Handle |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Mets | -130 | -135 | 72% | 88% |
| Atlanta Braves | +110 | +125 | 28% | 12% |
Evidently the public is loving the Mets today - owning 72% of bets and 88% of the handle. Elder does get spanked by some of the stars of New York, including Francisco Lindor (who's featured in our home run predictions today) and Pete Alonso.
| Bet Type | Opening Total | Current Total | % Bets | % Handle |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 9 (-110) | 9.5 (+100) | 83% | 94% |
| Under | 9 (-110) | 9.5 (-120) | 17% | 6% |
Bettors are hoping for some traffic on the base paths this afternoon, as the Over is owning 94% of the handle.
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❓MLB betting FAQs
How do betting odds work?
Betting odds represent the probability of a specific outcome and determine how much money you can win on a bet. There are three main formats: American odds, Decimal odds, and Fractional odds. In the U.S., American odds are most common.
What is the run line in baseball?
The run line in baseball is a form of point spread betting unique to MLB. It typically sets a standard spread of 1.5 runs, meaning the favored team must win by at least two runs to cover the run line, while the underdog can lose by one run or win outright to cover.
What does moneyline mean in betting?
The moneyline in betting refers to a wager on which team or player will win the game outright, with no point spread involved. It’s the most straightforward type of sports bet - just pick the winner.
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