Mariners vs. Guardians Prediction, Odds & Expert Picks: MLB Best Bets for Aug. 30
The Cleveland Guardians moved a game above .500 after coming back from a four-run deficit to win the series opener against the Seattle Mariners, but my Mariners vs. Guardians prediction, part of the MLB picks, expects Seattle to rebound from that crushing loss.
First pitch from Progressive Field in Cleveland is set for 7:15 p.m. ET tonight (FOX). Oddsmakers peg Seattle as a -145 moneyline road betting favorite, and Guardians righty Gavin Williams’ struggles have me looking towards a Mariners slugger for my best player prop bet.
⚾ Mariners vs. Guardians expert picks & predictions
MLB expert picks made Saturday; odds subject to change.
- Moneyline pick: Mariners (-142 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Run line pick: Mariners -1.5 (+125 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Over/Under pick: Over 7.5 (-110 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
📝 Mariners vs. Guardians preview & best bet
Track the latest MLB scores for line movement and matchup info.
Mariners moneyline (-142) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Williams was two outs away from pitching a no-hitter against the New York Mets three weeks ago. But the massive 126-pitch count (the most thrown by any starting pitcher this year) took its toll on the Cleveland righty, which is why I am backing Seattle to win outright with my Mariners vs. Guardians prediction.
In the three starts since flirting with the no-hitter, Williams has recorded 10 or fewer outs twice and pitched to a 5.63 ERA.
He has also had control issues of late, with four walks in two of his previous four starts, which should come back to bite him against a patient Mariners lineup that ranks in the top 10 in walk rate in August.
Seattle righty Logan Gilbert has made quality starts in three of his five outings this month. And in one of those that failed to go down as a quality start, he allowed just one run on two hits in five innings.
I am heading to FanDuel for this wager, as it is the only one of the top sports betting sites where one can back the Mariners at odds better than -145.
Seattle’s implied probability is as high as 60% based on the -150 odds at the high end of the market, but a $10 winning wager at -142 would net $7.04 in profits.
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💰 Best Mariners vs. Guardians player prop bet
Our MLB player prop odds tool shows the best odds for every market across legal sportsbooks in your area.
⬆️ Randy Arozarena Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI (-120) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Williams has reverse splits this season, having been tormented by right-handed batters. He has allowed a .281/.364/.438 slash line against righties compared to a .146/.267.289 slash line against lefties. That has me backing Seattle leadoff man Randy Arozarena to fill up the stat sheet as my best Mariners vs. Guardians player prop bet.
Arozarena homered in two of the last six games, and another home run tonight would cash this wager with one swing of the bat.
With sluggers like Cal Raleigh, Julio Rodriguez, and Eugenio Suarez hitting behind him, Arozarena should continue to see plenty of pitches to hit, and his 54.55% implied probability to score a run at -120 odds will help cash this wager.
Bettors stand to net $8.33 on a winning $10 wager if Arozarena combines for some combination of two-plus hits, runs, and RBI.
📊 Mariners vs. Guardians odds: Aug. 30
MLB odds update live in real time.
📈 Mariners vs. Guardians betting odds analysis
The Mariners opened as a -150 moneyline betting favorite, but the line has gone in the Guardians’ favor to -145 at a handful of our best MLB betting sites.
I wouldn’t be surprised if the line continues to head that way, given that bettors will be influenced by Cleveland erasing a four-run deficit in yesterday’s walkoff win.
🔢 Mariners vs. Guardians stats
Season stats courtesy of baseball-reference.com.
| Mariners (72-63) | Statistic (per game) | Guardians (67-66) |
|---|---|---|
| 4.59 | Runs | 3.86 |
| 8.22 | Hits | 7.33 |
| .242 | AVG | .224 |
| .411 | SLG | .367 |
| .729 | OPS | .662 |
| 3.99 | ERA | 3.88 |
| 8.52 | K/9 | 8.41 |
| 3.00 | BB/9 | 3.50 |
| 1.21 | HR/9 | 1.10 |
🚑 Mariners vs. Guardians injuries
📺 Mariners vs. Guardians game info
- When: Saturday, Aug. 30
- First pitch: 7:15 p.m. ET
- Where: Progressive Field (Cleveland)
- How to watch: FOX
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❓ Mariners vs. Guardians FAQs
Who is favored to win Mariners vs. Guardians?
The Mariners are the -145 betting favorite to beat the Guardians on the road on Saturday.
What is the run line for Mariners vs. Guardians?
Seattle’s -1.5 odds are at +118, while Cleveland’s +1.5 odds are at -150 on the high end of the market.
What is the Over/Under for Mariners vs. Guardians?
The top sports betting sites have the O/U set at 7.5 runs, juiced to -115 to the Over and -105 to the Under.
What are the best bets for Mariners vs. Guardians?
My Mariners vs. Guardians best bets back Seattle to win, with Randy Arozarena going over his projected hits/runs/RBI total.
When is the Mariners vs. Guardians game?
The Mariners vs. Guardians first pitch is set for 7:15 p.m. ET tonight, airing on FOX.
How do baseball odds work?
When betting on MLB, the run line shows how many runs the favorite needs to win by in order to cash the bet. For example, a favorite of -1.5 must win by two or more runs to cover the run line, while an underdog at +1.5 must win outright or lose by one run to cover the run line.
Moneyline odds represent the payout for picking the outright winner (+200 means a $100 bet wins $200, while -200 means a $200 bet wins $100). Over/Unders let you wager on whether the combined total of runs will be higher or lower than the set number.
You can determine the payouts and implied probabilities for any wager - or convert odds to different formats - with our odds converter.
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