⚾ Italy vs. Venezuela Predictions & Odds: WBC 2026 Betting Picks for Monday

One side is a win away from an improbable birth in the WBC final, and the other needs to take advantage of an ideal matchup as I make my Italy vs. Venezuela predictions.

The Italians have been repeatedly rising up as a dark horse. Even if that blessed run ends Monday night in the semifinals, Italy should easily contribute to a high-scoring game.

First pitch is set for 8 p.m. ET from loanDeport Park in Miami, Fla. The pitching matchup is Keider Montero vs. Michael Lorenzen, and it's all part of our World Baseball Classic betting picks.

⚾ Italy vs. Venezuela WBC predictions: Monday, 8 p.m. ET

Here are our World Baseball Classic picks for Monday's Italy vs. Venezuela matchup; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5 star scale.

Total wagered: 2.70 units | Max profit: 2.70 units

💰 Italy vs. Venezuela best bet

Over 10 (-110)

There's some serious offensive fuel powering both teams.

The Italians' espresso-infused ride has featured an average of eight runs per game. That's not against pushover pitchers either, as Italy tallied four runs against Seth Lugo during its quarterfinal win, and three against Nolan McLean en route to a stunning upset of Team USA.

The Italians can do their share of the lifting to get Over this number, especially with Keider Montero on the mound for Venezuela. He was regularly pummeled last year in MLB while putting up a .464 expected slugging, which sat among the bottom 9% leaguewide, per Baseball Savant.

🔥 Best Italy vs. Venezuela player prop

Luis Arraez 2+ hits (+100)

Luis Arraez is one of the best contact hitters on the planet, and the infielder boasts a .368 batting average at the WBC. He also strikes out at a comically low rate, as Arraez was punched out just 21 times last season in MLB over 154 games, his lowest across a full campaign in the majors.

He makes quality contact, too, which shows up in a squared-up percentage that sat in the 100th percentile last year, according to Baseball Savant. It just generally doesn't come packed with much power, except when he's playing in the WBC. Arraez has incredibly hit four doubles and two home runs in the tournament, which comes after his two dingers during the 2023 WBC. He hit four long balls all of last season in MLB.

Now the WBC version of Arraez gets to hack away against Lorenzen and his 4.64 ERA last year.

💣 Italy vs. Venezuela home run prediction

Vinnie Pasquantino to hit a home run (+500)

The premier masher for the underdog darlings of the tournament, Vinnie Pasquantino became a heavily caffeinated hero with his three home runs against Mexico. 

Now the WBC breakout star gets to face a pitcher who leans heavily on an offering that Pasquantino frequently tattoos. He could spend two at-bats against Montero, who throws his slider 21.9% of the time, making it his second-most used pitch. Pasquantino demolished sliders last season while producing a .667 slugging percentage.

Montero has also been susceptible to the long ball, too. He's put up a 1.7 HR/9 across two MLB seasons and 189 innings.

🚀 Italy vs. Venezuela same-game parlay

We're leaning on a high-scoring affair here, with the Italians' magical journey sadly ending, but not before a tough fight that features plenty of offensive fireworks on both sides again.

Arraez can do his part with quality contact, and a combo prop as part of a parlay is one of the best ways to include five-tool stud Ronald Acuna Jr., whose props are heavily juiced. Acuna can tee off against Italian pitching, and he's done plenty of that throughout the tournament while slugging .667.

💵 My betting record for baseball picks

All baseball picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since the beginning of the WBC on March 4.

⚖️ How I'm betting Italy vs. Venezuela

I'm again being mostly conservative with my bankroll management here. That's especially true when it comes to the player props, which fall below a full unit combined. There just isn't the value available ahead of a matchup with a heavy favorite.

The one area in which I'm getting a little more aggressive is with the total, as between Venezuela's offensive muscle and the surging Italians against a weaker starter, there should be more than enough power to hit the Over.

📊 Italy vs. Venezuela odds & analysis

Here are the World Baseball Classic odds for Italy vs. Venezuela on Sunday at 12:25 p.m. ET; odds via DraftKings:

There's a heavy slant toward the Over in early betting, with that side receiving 80% of the bets at DraftKings. The best sports betting sites are scattered when trying to set the total though, with DraftKings at 10, bet365 at 10.5, and FanDuel down at 9.5. It's likely we see those sitting lower move up quickly if the heavy lean toward the Over continues.

Meanwhile, the run-line lean toward Italy isn't quite as strong, but it's still clear with the Italians getting 63% of the bets to cover +1.5. Any plus-money offerings in that market might not last long.

🆚 Italy vs. Venezuela starting pitchers & projected lineups

Here are the projected starting pitchers and lineups for Monday's Italy vs. Venezuela matchup:

Key players to watch

Italy - Jon Berti: It's been a struggle for consistency with Jon Berti as a major-leaguer, but he's flying higher during the WBC with a .417 batting average and 1.333 OPS. He's been a significant driver of the Italian's offensive uprising.

Venezuela - Maikel Garcia: The infielder has taken the power he started to show last year in MLB with 16 homers to the WBC, posting a 1.134 OPS that includes a key two-run shot during the victory over Japan in the quarterfinals.

📺 How to watch Italy vs. Venezuela

• When: Monday, March 16
• First pitch: 8 p.m. ET
• Where: loanDepot Park (Miami, Fla)
• TV: FS1

❓ Italy vs. Venezuela World Baseball Classic FAQ

Here's what people are asking about Italy vs. Venezuela for Monday:

Who is the favorite in Italy vs. Venezuela?

Italy is the sizable moneyline favorite while getting -195 betting odds.

What time is the Italy vs. Venezuela WBC game?

The Italy vs. Venezuela semifinal starts at 8 p.m. ET on Monday from loanDeport Park in Miami, Fla.

Who are the starting pitchers for Italy vs. Venezuela?

Keider Montero will be on the mound for Venezuela, while Italy will go with Michael Lorenzen.

Where can I watch the Italy vs. Venezuela WBC game for free?

Italy vs. Venezuela can be watched on FS1.