⚾ Italy vs. USA Predictions & Odds Tonight: WBC 2026 Betting Picks

Team USA can join Japan at 4-0 (and potentially Puerto Rico, too, depending on how it fares against Canada) with a win against Italy tonight, but our Italy vs. USA predictions expect the underdogs to put some pressure on the Americans and keep this relatively close.

The Americans are priced as -1100 betting favorites in this one, so the best sports betting sites don't expect it to be especially competitive.

USA will send New York Mets rookie Nolan McLean to the mound in this high-stakes game, which could serve as somewhat of a preview for how he could fare if the Americans make the finals. Meanwhile, Italy will go with MLB veteran Michael Lorezen, making this one of the more solid pitching showdowns of pool play. Will that result in a low-scoring affair, though?

⚾ Italy vs. USA WBC predictions: Tonight, 9 p.m. ET

Here are our World Baseball Classic picks for today's Italy vs. USA matchup; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5 star scale.

Total wagered: 3 units | Max profit: 3.79 units

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💰 Italy vs. USA best bet

Italy +5.5 (-110)

I'm pretty surprised to see this run line at 5.5 after Mexico-USA closed at 3.5. I understand that Mexico is the superior team, but I don't think it's two runs better, and it ended up losing by only two. I think Italy keeps this within five runs pretty easily.

Additionally, USA just played yesterday and Italy had the entire day off to prepare for this showdown. The Italians feature a dangerous lineup and are sending a veteran to the mound. I'm expecting an USA win with a final score around 8-5.

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🔥 Best Italy vs. USA player prop

Roman Anthony 2+ hits (+185)

I've bet this twice through Team USA's first two games, and I will continue to do so until Romany Anthony gives me a reason not to.

In a clubhouse full of veterans, the 21-year-old Anthony strikes fear into opposing pitchers right now just as much as Aaron Judge, Kyle Schwarber, or Bobby Witt Jr. do. He's hitting .364 with a home run and five RBIs through three games, and he could find himself vaulted up the lineup if he continues to perform like this.

Mark DeRosa has a pretty old-school feel, so he'll likely continue to let Bryce Harper waste ABs out of No. 2 spot because he's Bryce Harper. However, what if he, you know, manages the team properly and slides Anthony into the two-hole behind Witt? That may give us an entire extra plate appearance.

Even if he remains the No. 7 hitter, I think Anthony is a great bet at these odds to string together a pair of base knocks.

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💣 Italy vs. USA home run prediction

Kyle Schwarber (+220)

We've already seen one Schwarbomb during the WBC, and I bet on it that night. Let's make it 2-for-2.

Schwarber has been an absolute machine during the tournament. He's hitting .417 and he had two of the five hardest-hit balls last night against Mexico. He has five hard-hit balls in USA's three games, and he's consistently hitting toward the top of the lineup, giving him ample opportunities to hit a nuke.

Italy has just two left-handed pitchers on its roster, and though Schwarber has improved against southpaws anyway, it's nice that he may not need to face one tonight.

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🚀 Italy vs. USA same-game parlay

I'm parlaying the Over 11.5 and adding two players props with the USA moneyline for our Italy vs. USA SGP at DraftKings.

Usually, I'd say limit your wager size on an SGP, but you could actually bet a full unit on this, since three of the legs are trading at very short odds. This is more of a longer-odds play on the USA to win a high-scoring affair and two of its best hitters to get involved rather than a true long-shot SGP.

💵 Best Italy vs. USA parlay bet

• Over 11.5 (-110)
• USA moneyline (-1100)
• Roman Anthony 1+ hit (-310)
• Kyle Schwarber 1+ hit (-300)

Best odds: +182 via DraftKings (1 -> 1.82u)

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⚖️ How I'm betting Italy vs. USA

I have no issue getting a little looser with your bankroll management for this game and betting three or even four units, since it features a ton of familiar players, and we have a decent idea of how they'll perform.

As I mentioned, I think Italy keeps it close in a high-scoring game, so I'd put a unit each on the underdogs to cover the run line and the game to go Over its total. And then if you want to spread another 1.5 to two full units across a couple of player props, I can support that action.

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📊 Italy vs. USA odds & analysis

Here are the live World Baseball Classic odds for Italy vs. USA today:

The longest odds on USA to win outright are -1100, so betting on the favorites isn't especially appealing. Therefore, the run line may be the better option for USA backers. At DraftKings, 97% of the moneyline bets have been placed on the favorites as of 3 p.m. ET on Tuesday. Meanwhile, all books have the total at 11.5. Bettors at DraftKings are gravitating toward the Over, as 59% of the bets were on the Over at 11 a.m. ET, but that number is now as 75%.

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🆚 Italy vs. USA starting pitchers & projected lineups

Here are the projected starting pitchers and lineups for today's Italy vs. USA matchup:

Key players to watch

Italy - Vinnie Pasquantino: The Pasquatch has gone hitless so far in the WBC, and his team desperately needs him to show up tonight if it has any chance of beating Team USA.

USA - Nolan McLean: I will be watching every single pitch from McLean tonight, as I want to see how he looks ahead of a potential start in the final if the Americans make it that far.

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📺 How to watch Italy vs. USA

• When: Tuesday, March 10
• First pitch: 9 p.m. ET
• Where: Daikin Park (Houston, Texas)
• TV: FS1
• Streaming: Fubo

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❓ Italy vs. USA World Baseball Classic FAQ

Here's what people are asking about Italy vs. USA today:

Who is the favorite in Italy vs. USA?

USA is the favorite to win, with odds as short as -1200.

What time is the Italy vs. USA WBC game?

This game will start at 9 p.m. ET.

Who are the starting pitchers for Italy vs. USA?

Italy will send Michael Lorenzen to the mound, while Nolan McLean will start for USA.

Where can I watch the Italy vs. USA WBC game?

You can watch this game on FS1 or stream it on Fubo.

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