Home Run Derby Picks & Predictions 2024: Will Alonso Tee Off Again?

It's time once again for so very many baseballs to leave this planet and begin a journey to the great beyond, with the Home Run Derby as the launching pad.

And specifically Globe Life Field in Texas, which is where the 2024 festivities will be held today at 8 p.m. ET on ESPN, with a few format tweaks. The main ones are that the bracket-style playoff won't begin until the second round, with the sluggers who posted the top-four totals in the opening frame then squaring off. Also, for the first time there will be a maximum number of pitches (40 in the first and second rounds, and 27 in the finals).

Pete Alonso enters as the favorite by our Home Run Derby odds. He's seeking his third derby title, and the friendly confines of Globe Life Field could factor into that pursuit. The Texas Rangers' home has given up the fourth-most home runs during 2024, according to Baseball Savant. 

Marcell Ozuna isn't far behind Alonso in the odds from our best MLB betting sites. But the most appealing home run derby picks lie a little further down, including a certain Baltimore Orioles ball punisher who's the 2024 home run leader among the eight participants.

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Home Run Derby odds 2024

(Home Run Derby odds as of July 15 | 🔥 = best odds | ❄️ = worst odds)

Picks to win the Home Run Derby

Picks made Sunday. Odds below may differ from above.

Marcell Ozuna

Yes, Ozuna is well on his way to one of the best seasons in his 12-year career in every regard, including an OPS that sits at .965, the second-highest mark ever for the 33-year-old. We care mostly about dingers around these parts though, and his 26 round-trippers sit second in the NL.

And sure, there are many other baseball reasons Ozuna is irresistible too. Like a fifth-ranked 56.4 hard-hit rate, a fourth-ranked 18.1 barrel percentage, and an 11.8 barrels per plate appearance that's also fourth.

This pick is about a Statcast page oozing with red, but it's more so rooted in value. Most of our best sportsbooks are sitting around +400 for a masher who's clubbed five home runs over his first 12 games in July alone. BetMGM is even down at +375, with FanDuel not far off at +380.

Yet there's Caesars, offering +500 and putting Ozuna even with Adolis Garcia, who's hit nine fewer homers.

Best odds: +500 via Caesars | Implied probability: 16.67%

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Gunnar Henderson

Only two hitters set to take their hacks on Monday night sit among top 20 in hard-hit percentage. Making his bat into a flamethrower is central to Ozuna's approach, but the same is true for Henderson, the fast-rising young Baltimore Orioles shortstop who's even higher on the hard-hit leaderboard than Ozuna.

Henderson is fourth leaguewide at 56.7%. That puts him ahead of firmly established rocket launchers like Vladimir Gurerrero Jr. (55.7%) and Kyle Schwarber (55.6%), and only narrowly behind Juan Soto (57.7%). He's also sixth in total balls smacked at 95-plus mph, too, and ahead of Ozuna (10th).

Henderson is more widely available at around the +500 mark among our best sports betting sites, making him the easy fallback option when Caesars likely adjusts its price for Ozuna.

Best odds: +500 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 16.67%

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Teoscar Hernandez

Mr. Seeds leads the league in fun. The eternally jovial Teoscar Hernandez is well en route to a career-best season power wise, as he sits on 19 homers currently, and his top campaign in the long ball category was 32 in 2021.

Holding a white-hot bat certainly helps everyone heading into this event, but especially those like Hernandez who are in dark-horse territory and looking to surprise. He's been enjoying a quality season overall, and particularly during the buildup to the All-Star break in July while producing an OPS of .914 across 11 games.

That dwarfs his .762 in June, and Hernandez's previous monthly high of .829 in May.

Hernandez also sits 11th in total barrels with 37. That's a sky-high number for someone getting such long odds, and he's only one behind Henderson.

Be sure to pounce on this price from FanDuel. Hernandez is the most alluring option if you're seeking a long shot, but he's getting far shorter odds through Caesars (+900) and DraftKings (+950).

Best odds: +1200 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 7.69%

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