Brewers vs. Padres Prediction, Odds & Expert Picks: MLB Best Bets for Today Sept. 24
The Milwaukee Brewers and San Diego Padres have clinched playoff spots, but my Brewers vs. Padres prediction backs the home team, which has slightly more to play for down the stretch. First pitch for this afternoon's game at Petco Park in San Diego is scheduled for 4:10 p.m. ET (MLBN).
My MLB picks also back Padres slugger Ramon Laureano to drive in a run at a great price, especially after Milwaukee announced a change in starting pitchers.
⚾ Brewers vs. Padres prediction
MLB expert picks for Wednesday; odds subject to change.
- Moneyline pick: Padres (-120 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Run line pick: Padres -1.5 (+170 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐
- Over/Under pick: Under 8 (-114 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
📝 Brewers vs. Padres preview & best bet
Track the latest MLB scores for line movement and matchup info.
👼 Padres ML (-120) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
The Brewers are 26-12 as road underdogs after playing the previous day, but San Diego gets the moneyline nod as my Brewers vs. Padres best bet. The Padres are still heavily in the mix in two races (the NL West and the race for the first wild card).
Milwaukee has made a late change in its starting pitcher, switching from Quinn Priester to Chad Patrick. That should shift the odds massively in San Diego’s favor, as the Brewers have won each of Quinn Priester’s last 19 starts, after starting the year 2-7 through his first nine.
Priester has already thrown more than triple the number of innings that he has thrown in any of his two previous big league seasons, so the team opted to give him more rest down the stretch. That mindset of gearing up for the playoffs while owning a three-game lead with four to play for homefield advantage in the playoffs is precisely why I am backing San Diego as the hungrier team.
The Padres got to Freddy Peralta for two runs in five innings in a win on Monday, and he entered that matchup with a 1.43 ERA in his previous eight starts while allowing a .138 OBA and pitching to a 12.5 K/9 rate over his previous 44 innings.
If the Padres get out to an early lead, their top-ranked bullpen that has pitched to a 1.72 ERA during the four-game win streak should nail down the late innings.
Caesars is the only top sports betting site where one can back San Diego at better than -121 odds. The Padres have 55.56% implied odds on the high end of the market, and a $10 winning wager through Caesars’ -120 odds would net $8.33 in profits.
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💰 Best Brewers vs. Padres player prop bet
Our MLB player prop odds tool shows the best odds for every market across legal sportsbooks in your area.
⬆️ Ramon Laureano Over 0.5 RBI (+201) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
With as much attention as San Diego’s top two right-handed bats (Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado) get, Ramon Laureano’s contributions often get overlooked.
Over the last seven days, entering yesterday’s game, Laureano had the same number of total bases (10) in six fewer at-bats than Machado, and was one behind Tatis Jr.’s 11. Machado’s RBI odds in particular return less value at +175, so I'm backing the best value at DraftKings, where a $10 winning wager would net $20.10 in profits at 33.22% implied odds.
Laureano ended August batting .314 with 19 home runs and 63 RBIs over his prior 85 games, and I expect him to snap a six-game RBI drought with this confident four-star play as my best Brewers vs. Padres player prop bet.
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📊 Brewers vs. Padres odds: Sept. 24
MLB odds below update in real time:
📈 Brewers vs. Padres betting odds analysis
Despite the pitching change from Quinn Priester to Chad Patrick, the Brewers are attracting 55% of the early moneyline bets. That suggests we could see this game begin as more of a virtual pick ’em, with the general public not expecting a 90-plus win team to get swept.
There has been just as good two-way action on the total, with 56% of the bets coming in on the Over. Despite those nearly equal betting splits, I would expect BetMGM to align with the rest of the best sports betting sites and move from an O/U of 7.5 to 8.0.
🔢 Brewers vs. Padres stats
Season stats courtesy of baseball-reference.com.
| Brewers (95-63) | Statistic (per game) | Padres (87-71) |
|---|---|---|
| 5.06 | Runs | 4.27 |
| 8.87 | Hits | 8.44 |
| .260 | AVG | .252 |
| .406 | SLG | .388 |
| .740 | OPS | .709 |
| 3.61 | ERA | 3.67 |
| 8.94 | K/9 | 8.78 |
| 3.30 | BB/9 | 3.27 |
| 1.03 | HR/9 | 1.10 |
📺 Brewers vs. Padres game info
- When: Wednesday, Sept. 24
- First pitch: 4:10 p.m. ET
- Where: Petco Park (San Diego)
- How to watch: MLBN
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❓ Brewers vs. Padres FAQs
Who is favored to win Brewers vs. Padres?
The Padres are the -120 betting favorite to beat the Brewers at home on Wednesday.
What is the run line for Brewers vs. Padres?
San Diego’s -1.5 odds range from +158 to +170, while Milwaukee’s +1.5 odds are at -135 on the high end of the market.
What is the Over/Under for Brewers vs. Padres?
The O/U is at 8.0 runs at most best sports betting apps, and its juiced to -105 to the Over and -115 to the Under.
What are the best bets for Brewers vs. Padres?
My Brewers vs. Padres best bets back San Diego to win outright (-120) and for Roman Laureano to record at least one RBI (+201).
When is the Brewers vs. Padres game?
The Brewers vs. Padres first pitch is set for 4:10 p.m. ET, airing on MLB Network.
How do baseball odds work?
When betting on MLB, the run line shows how many runs the favorite needs to win by in order to cash the bet. For example, a favorite of -1.5 must win by two or more runs to cover the run line, while an underdog at +1.5 must win outright or lose by one run to cover the run line.
Moneyline odds represent the payout for picking the outright winner (+200 means a $100 bet wins $200, while -200 means a $200 bet wins $100). Over/Unders let you wager on whether the combined total of runs will be higher or lower than the set number.
You can determine the payouts and implied probabilities for any wager - or convert odds to different formats - with our odds converter.
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